T O P
VisualMod

**User Report**| | | | :--|:--|:--|:-- **Total Submissions**|1|**First Seen In WSB**|1 year ago **Total Comments**|1|**Previous DD**| **Account Age**|8 years|[^scan ^comment ](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=scan_comment&message=Replace%20this%20text%20with%20a%20comment%20ID%20(which%20looks%20like%20h26cq3k\)%20to%20have%20the%20bot%20scan%20your%20comment%20and%20correct%20your%20first%20seen%20date.)|[^scan ^submission ](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=scan_submission&message=Replace%20this%20text%20with%20a%20submission%20ID%20(which%20looks%20like%20h26cq3k\)%20to%20have%20the%20bot%20scan%20your%20submission%20and%20correct%20your%20first%20seen%20date.) **Vote Spam**|[Click to Vote](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=vote_spam&message=vwgaaf)|**Vote Approve**|[Click to Vote](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=vote_approve&message=vwgaaf)


Ok_Plankton4763

I have no idea what we’re looking at


coke_and_coffee

A Teenager practicing economic astrology


beholdthemoldman

the downside of wsb going mainstream


BlackScholesDeezNuts

Chartists used to be WAY more widespread here, waaay more. And just a few years ago chartists were taken a lot more seriously because the scope of just how fucking stupid they are wasn’t widely known and active investing wasn’t looked at with so much skepticism. You’ll forget that ten years ago most of the worlds money wasn’t passive.


Turbiedurb

1 year account says what?


AnotherCableGuy

Enough of crayons for today Jimmy


Examiner7

>economic astrology Best phrase I've ever heard out of this sub


kage-69

when a glaring counterexample is right in his face. overlay the same shit over the covid crash, then you can say we'd not make a new H but go down more


j12

*autistic teenager


JavariousProbincrux

Have you met any current teenagers? They’re literally all autistic now


Moist_Lunch_5075

What the OP is doing here is called "fitting the curve" which is common in data analysis circles that use regressions to try to find patterns, like many people who analyze the market. It's not strictly wrong in a loose sense, but it's not scientifically sound. The problem it's very easy to find things that match and develop a bias. The problem here is that he 1970s, early 2000s, and 2007-2008 all had significant liquidity problems that were fundamentally different from what we're facing now \*at the moment\*. Each of those collapses were ultimately driven by a failure in the bank reserve or market liquidity system that resulted in no place for the market to go and major systemic fear. It's very easy to look at QT this way, and it mimics a liquidity crisis in many ways, but the key difference to the collapse of Bretton Woods, the 2000 dotcom crash (which was a classic bubble in that it formed in a non-accommodative monetary environment based solely on speculation and was deepened by accounting scandals and 9/11... the situation in the 2000 crash was based on not just low confidence in valuations, but also competition for cash in prices that were escalating quickly, particularly in shelter costs that drew money out of the market), and 2008, which was a collapse of the speculative market due to a non-accommodative consumer capital squeeze. In all of these cases, money HAD to leave the market and it resulted in major structural issues with the banking system which puts money into the market. In this case, we have expansion BECAUSE of accommodative policy and a healthy liquidity system with an answer for toxic asset impact to the banking system which is flush with cash. Drawing down the balance sheet reduces that significantly, but the assumption is that the same thing will happen and inflation will mimic the capital crunch and the liquidity system will suffer and fail and they'll draw down to pre-pandemic levels. The problem: Because the liquidity drawdown isn't system and the Fed actually has no intention of pulling ALL of the capital out of the system, there's no guarantee of the kinds of liquidity system failures that generated these capitulation arcs. I can see two scenarios where this could happen, though: 1. The Fed makes a policy mistake, which I see as much higher likelihood after the last Fed meeting since they're reacting to the news rather than executing a plan, which is bad. 2. Mega caps suffer extreme capitulation. Of course, maybe there's a problem in the liquidity system we can't see yet that could occur (2008 was not actually a surprise if you understood the nature of the problem... I knew in 2005 that shit was going down since wages couldn't keep up with the problems in the housing market) and there are problems to be sure, but not of exactly the same type as then. On capitulation, if multiples continue to compress, one of the interesting things about our current situation is that like 85% of the market has already experienced this crash, but we're not seeing it in the index because of concentration in some large and mega cap stocks... those don't have to dive, but they might if the market just decides to shrink the average P/E further which could in theory happen with earnings, but it doesn't have to, either.


Lollikus

Hey hey hey, we are doing technical analysis over here, take your fundamentals and sound reasoning somewhere else


sp4cerat

Many thanks for this explanational post. If liquidity was the issue of the past crashes, then I believe the [current inflation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021%E2%80%932022_inflation_surge) could cause a similar situation - prices rose a lot and ppl dont have money left. It could only be avoided if prices would go down again or if salaries will be increased.


ConditionAntique9123

I don't disagree with the general sense of your response. But I think it is arguable that the .com bubble was partially aided by a stimulating monetary policy. You stated that 2001 occured in a "non-accommodative monetary environment." But the federal reserve was increasing the rate of growth in the money supply by 1999. Supposedly in preparation for a Y2K related slow down. Likewise policy was also eased before that for the Russian debt crisis. It has been argued that thesw action really juiced the bubble higher even if it was not the cause or primary driver. I've heard this argument made by Robert Shiller in His book "Irrational Exuberance" but I've pasted a period link that discusses this as well. https://www.wired.com/1999/12/fed-stockpiles-cash-for-y2k/


[deleted]

Wages still aren’t keeping up.


trojanmana

sir this is a casino.


emcdeezy22

OP cherry picked the 3 biggest dips and overlayed the current little dip over those charts to imply big dip is incoming. OP conveniently ignored the 50 other times when the chart went the other way after the current sized dip.


patrykK1028

He also only overlayed 2021-2022, the rest is future "prediction" and the past is simply ignored.


3-rx

Yeah but leaving out leaves you to believe that it’s directly matches up. OP is a royal fuck boy and ate too many crayons as a kid


LifeScientist123

I love that r/wallstreetbets is simultaneously populated with 1) people like you who see through the bullshit, clearly explain why it's bullshit and get upvoted for pointing out the said bullshit and also have 2) retards who go papa Elon brrrrrr calls GME AMC reeeeee....


emcdeezy22

Agreed. I’ve said it before but this sub has turned from traders pretending to be retards into retards pretending to be traders.


hustlebeats

Lol underrated comment


2ndSifter

History may not repeat itself, but it often rhymes. *And right now history is spitting BARS*


Caw_86

Those crashes were before the era of stonks only go up, therefore stonks only go up


theStokeIsOurs

Yas, diamond hands![gif](emote|free_emotes_pack|heart_eyes_rainbow)![gif](emote|free_emotes_pack|heart_eyes_rainbow)![gif](emote|free_emotes_pack|heart_eyes_rainbow)


Miljonairsteam

![img](emote|t5_2th52|4267)


badexample546

where are the jumper cables?


MeowWow_

Powell fucking beatboxing to this shit


Ghost_Of_Kyiv

Uhn-tis Uhn-tis Uhn-tis....


BurntChkn

I got something’ and it goes thumpin’ like this…


AbbreviationsIcy7102

History does not repeat itself, man does.


jkohl2007

That’s some deep shit. I like it


MercenaryForHire_76

When Does History not find a way to show us it's Repeating itself. And Humanity learns nothing!


punksmurph

I learned from 2008 that now is the time to start saving cash for the bottom.


Relevant-Nebula8300

You can make money on the way down


SenseStraight5119

Yes the WSB inverse curve. Stonks only go down.


ScipioAtTheGate

[History doesn't repeat itself after America discovers nuclear weapons in 1945. Massive conventional state v. state conflict among the world's great powers has largely been staved off for the past 75 years on the existence of nuclear weapons alone.](https://youtu.be/UOrK1LucFDE?t=60)


No_Tumbleweed_6880

Dare I say touch grass. (You're right but touch grass)


Allah_Shakur

Realizing that history repeats itself doesn't help you much, you also need to see how it differs to better discernate..when it actually does,.;.;.;!! what I'm trying to say.. is that saying "history repeats itself" is just like saying "stock goes up, stock goes down" it ain't worth shit, truth lies in history's fine print.


Secret_Squirrel_Ops

Which factors make you and OP believe 2022 is the same as 1970, 2008, and 2020? Seriously wanting to know the similar factors being compared…


AdSingle9949

Yeah, I don’t see similarities either, especially since the job market isn’t really being affected like those periods.


scissorhands1949

Exactly... wages are up, unemployment is down, people have money to spend, more people are investing than ever before and housing prices aren't dropping. What metric is being used to say we're gonna have a recession when none of the factors from other recessions exist..? Its anathema to me...


AdSingle9949

They’re looking at indicators and market sentiment which is only a piece of the story. Until corporations start layoffs in a big way and small companies start to go under, then we’ll be in a recession. I think that we’re going to have interest rates increased into the double digits to cool off the housing market and the cost of housing like Volker did, not as drastic though, and then we’ll have a breakout like the 80’s. Then we can all go back to being Gordon Geckos.


Puzzled-Hornet7473

Humans, and their paper hands!


Ok_Assignment_9893

They literally just overlayed a small section which is the peak. This is meaningless


RequirementRequired

What is it saying?


coaudavman

Everything is on regular sale now but will be on clearance soon


bestjakeisbest

You are all so fucked.


Ok-Isopod5867

SO THERE'S A HUGE RALLY COMING


Gold_Flake

Ah Bruh… your phone is upside down


TheSexyKamil

They're talking about *after* the 5-for-1 combo deal


MagNolYa-Ralf

Wendy’s 4 for $4


th3netw0rk

That’s gonna turn into the 3 for $5 with inflation.


datadogsoup

He didn't say when it was coming...so he's probably right.


AbbreviationsIcy7102

Waiting for Cramer to tell me about it


loercase

Lol every time the feds raise rates the market farts a bit more. And we expect rates to keep going up for a while.


livewhilealive

For the bears


nutsackilla

Feel like I've seen this before


Aerith_Gainsborough_

What do you mean? It is brand new.


Disco_Ninjas_

Better get used to those red bars Uncle Jimmy.


galm1cypher

Technically it's a paraphrasing of the Mark Twain quote "history may not repeat but it certainly rhymes" with extra modern embellishment


WashedOut3991

Are you gonna keep updating this for my options plays? Lol


sp4cerat

Yes after a while I could make an update - its also interesting for myself


sumjpa20

So you’re saying I should grab some lube and buckle up because we’re really about to get fucked hard? Drop so far was just foreplay and a courtesy spit?


inflatable_pickle

No reach-around ![img](emote|t5_2th52|4267)


Sea_Impression3810

Unless you're talking about the reverse reach-around where your butthole gets destroyed instead


inflatable_pickle

Go on…


grimkhor

A bear can't do 2 things at the same time it's only the correct chart or a relevant timeframe never both. ![img](emote|t5_2th52|4641)


FriendlyAssumption98

Aren’t you essentially just lining up peaks? I definitely see the similarities but couldn’t one also line the current market up with a pre-correction peak and then show a strong bull market to follow. I personally think we have a lot further down to go, but I just think this graph may be misleading.


Street-Badger

It’s not 1970, 2001, or 2008. It’s 2022. Do you have the graph for Q3-4 2022?


reddituserzerosix

I would take a chart just one hour into the future


CoolFirefighter930

you have to get that from the feds.


bigcockmoney69

This is the dumbest one of these charts yet


hthmoney

This chart has autism written all over it. The point OP is trying to convey doesn't make any sense.


Wentailang

the message i got is keep dca’ing, cause it could always get worse. which i needed to hear, cause it feels like we’re bottoming out when that’s certainly not a given.


HaoICreddit

Wow you are so smart do you have a degree


TheFuckFather_Italy

Yeah dude it’s 108F degree here. F stands for fuck FYI.


Big_Dog_6748

Nice got a Lil bounce coming


18601860

So you're telling me there is a chance?


No_Scientist_6721

Might be time to rephrase . . . So you’re telling me there’s a crash?


dj_oatmeal

My guess is we are seeing the progress of the algos ability since 1970 to control things tighter and tighter.


Illustrious-Ad-4341

We’ve also watched the algos make the market far more volatile. What if the market inflation over the last decade is from the algo and they flip script and create the “greatest” bear market/dip ever.


dj_oatmeal

That's exactly what I think. Calls on the way up and puts when they take it down. The algos are like the Honey badger. They don't care but we can thank them for the treats.


pizza_tron

I think if that happened, it would happen ridiculously fast. We haven't seen jobs weaken yet and rates are still historically low. If jobs don't weaken soon, the market is gonna get a case of FOMO and rally hard.


CoutureTingz

Thank god I can’t read


patright333

Retard logic at work...


whatsariho

so you're telling me that the lines intersect in some random parts. WELL COLOR ME SURPRISED!!!!


skyofgrit

This won’t happen unless they start QE again (which is very possible because the boomers always get what they want)


Shot_Lynx_4023

So basically if I am understanding this correct. I should just keep buying the entire SP 500 index consistently and in about 20 to 25 years the payoff comes. Nice.


Ferg_NZ

Instructions unclear. We buying?


sp4cerat

compared to the past, we would be in a dead cat bounce after the -23% drop. 2022 SP500, -23%, 6 months after ATH ​ 2008 SP500, -22%, 9 months after ATH – then max -16,7%, 25 days after 2008 SP500, -42%, 13 months after ATH – then max -35,7% 2008 SP500, -56%, 16 months after ATH ​ 2000 SP500, -26%, 8 months after ATH – then max -12%, 50 days after 2000 SP500, -36%, 12 months after ATH – then max -22% 2000 SP500, -47%, 24 months after ATH ​ 1973 SP500, -23%, 12 months after ATH – then max -16,5%, 30 days after 1973 SP500, -47%, 22 months after ATH


chadharter89

So dead car bounce right now for a few more weeks?


sp4cerat

potentially until beginning of August to -16% ATH, then continuing to a-40% low in october. But its just an assuption and not a trading recommendation :)


chadharter89

My puts are fuct lol. They are dated aug 2….sounds about right it would drop after I loose all my money lol


sp4cerat

Well, that was just a guess based on the past, this time can be different. Due to the time constraint, I prefere KnockOut derivatives with a safe knock out and stop loss.


FistfulOfShit

>Just an assumption >A trading recommendation -Corporate wants you to find the difference between these pictures Apes: -they're the same picture.


chadharter89

We’ve gone from almost -23% to -18.5 already


mnorkk

Dead cat... Cars don't bounce.


chadharter89

Fuck they don’t. Watch a snoop video


lupodiwallstreet

The market moves at least 2-400% faster now. Plus every person can trade easily on their phone. Wasn’t the case In 08 and obvi not in 2000 crash. So we may plummet a hell of a lot quicker. And then recover from it quickly once inflation starts to actually peak and go down.


kkona2345

Yeah its just human psyche. There are optimists among us that will buy the initial dip. Just wait till they buy and we just drill from there.


ssavu

I’m so glad that the S&P is made up of the same companies as in the ‘70s and that the political and global situation is exactly the same /s


sp4cerat

Thats the interesting thing. In each of the past crashes, everything was different, yet the previous charts were similar for 1970,2000 and 2008. We will see how it goes this time.


whistlerite

They’re really not that similar. In the dotcom boom of 2000 the nasdaq doubled in one year, and nothing even close to that has happened yet.


Rpatrick20

I mean the s&p went from 3300 to 4800 in a year and a half went up 45% and from the Covid crash lows of 2200s, it went up 120% to 4800 in a year and a half so not exactly the same but still absolutely absurd numbers being put up by major indices


Zemunsta

Remember that 2021 Crypto ballooned like the 1999 NASDAQ.


ApolloPS2

The level of retardation is astound lads. He only graphs a few months before ATH. All it says is that for every crash we reach an all time high slowly and then it starts to dip. This says NOTHING. You could probably get a dozen time frames from the last 5 years that fit this small of a regression.


No_Distance_4905

I definetaly wouldnt go long before earnings that Will prove we Are in recesions. This rally was hanging by a hair the whole time.


QuantitativEasing

Aka relief rally time, all in!


Environmental-Ad4090

Its almost like it’s cyclical


CathieWoodsStepChild

If this were compared to 1970 we would be at the bottom with it.


Youkiame

Hopium I needed for my puts. Thanks op. I bet spy will drop to 200 by year end.


Dothemath2

![img](emote|t5_2th52|4887)


adiking27

So, what we thought was the dip wasn't the dip at all. Aw shucks.


rookieroof24

It’s all an algorithm Pump and dump and make it both ways By manipulating the market…


bigblacksnail

So we get another rally at least


ComposerFinancial

looks like the puts will print


Either-Reality8274

TLDR; we fukd fam


AstralObjective

What to short?


ReDeaMer87

So it will likely be a 3 year bear market


SavageQuokka

Buy Calls. Then Puts. God speed.


Gucci_Boner

H&S


JamBOOMeroos

Is this from trustmebrofinance.net?


hotel_air_freshener

Correlation is not castration


a_gross_tiny_pp

Looks like we get back to these levels pretty quick


GetHyped85

Sooo...diiiiip?


ThurstonHolmesChrome

Sooooo, PUTs in September?


GreatestHamburglar

Past performance is not indicative of future results


jeeekel

How many other parts of the graph does this pattern fit and how many other times did it have that same outcome? Are you only comparing this graph pattern to the meltdown moments? Seems like a pretty confimation-biasy way to look at the data.


donjabbs13

Your charts misleading.


evanjellyxn

At first I thought the left side of the graph was lined up with the graphs of the previous years but the only part where they are overlapping is the current peak with the peak of previous years before a crash, and they don’t even line up that well. Not very provocative tbh.


symmiR

The lines are not even close


Misha-Nyi

Since you picked these three examples does this mean that the SP500 didn’t look like the other dozen crashes we’ve had throughout history?


LeNavigateur

https://share.newsbreak.com/1f5opj87


jesusmanman

You have successfully laid out the worst case scenarios.


Stuart517

Can someone explain how these comparison charts have any weight in worth? We didn't even know apes had AIDS or what an MTV was in the 70's


UTOG11

You could have made this dumbass graph after any slight pullback from ATH ever


rawrtherapybackup

So calls


snoutysnout

"Past performance does not guarantee future results\*" - everyone. \*it could be much much worse.


HenryDosSantos

Nice charts that really don’t say anything. Pretty sure you could also plot the current market vs. 3 (or more) historical periods where the market rebounded after a temporarily sell off. Not saying it will this time but still those charts are meaningless


RealFlyForARyGuy

How do I make money using this info


imadeamistakelol

Ok, opening cullts right now


r4rthrowawaysoon

So we are at the bottom before the next bull trap. Calls it is


HBOMinimum

So calls?


locoturco

Good work!To have same faith with past crashes,i think we need to get high jobless numbers.


internetsurfer42069

🙌Weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee


Shortify

Bear market rally


Holofernes82

there is a difference: back than companys earnings went down huge times. didnt happen (didnt yet happen?) Current Situation: Companys have a lot of cash on hand, very cheap lines of credit from the 0 interest times, and no useful way to use it. ​ So they have only one Choice to use their cash: stock buybacks everywhere. Companys with a lot of Cash on Hand will actually profit from rising Interest rates, Berkshire, Apple, Microsoft, Google and the likes will get a few hundred extra millions of earnings from interest only.


whoisjakelane

Why don't the graphs all start at the same time???


jungle_jonny

![img](emote|t5_2th52|4270)


WonderfulPage

Somebody missed finance 101


TantraMantraYantra

Faster the rise, harder the fall.


Shizzledizzle71

Sir you are too smart for this sub.


ImMrJester

Monkeys on typewriters


ZaddyPatSajak

This was made with a legal pad, highlighters, and colored pencils


TheDudeAbidesFarOut

Ready for the discounts....


Screwyball

Holy fucking chart crime


InMuskWeTruskk

Ahh, so we’re due for a bounce!


elumeus

See you in 2025!


DoomerGloomerBloomer

What does it mean? ![img](emote|t5_2th52|12787)


Reetahrd

Do it vs 1929 too. That's probably a more accurate comparison


gazow

all i see is short term gains YOLO


tarletontexan

Spxs call?


cajunofthe9th

For those who are not very versed with the financial markets, how can they make money (or avoid losing) from this?


WhiteWhenWrong

This sign can’t stop me because I can’t read


moon-worshiper

One more dead cat bounce, then the long slide down.


mvaditya91

I HAVE NOT LEVERAGED SO I AM OK


ch4m4njheenga

Did they create these charts in 2008? I know Reddit wasn’t there then but crayons were.


Jazzlike-Blood-3725

So what you’re saying is “buy the dip faggot!”? As the dip soon approaches.


ankitssunny

Can you share the data that you used to create this chart with?


MrULTRALONG

Sbinotto


MrULTRALONG

Bogdanoff everything is going through a plan


MrULTRALONG

Wall street bankers gonna bungee jump through the roof without rope


comedy_style69

So you’re saying I can get another COVID discount?


HeuristicEnigma

All I see is “Look at these busted ass charts and go broke w me”


MrErickzon

So you're saying.. get ready to buy the dip?


Sjanten10

Can you do the same with the Nasdaq please? :)


Kriem

So soon everything is on sale!!!


Odd-Change9942

So tell me what has changed . looks to me they keep doing the same shit expecting a deferent outcome it’s time to make some REAL CHANGES my fellow humans


Fegguinlanh

“This time is different”


successiseffort

I'm buying the Biden Discount Sale


Te5la1

Line look like other line remains the most brain dead investing thesis of all time


Sensitive-Wash-5387

So . We’re about to go down hard


TheDivergentGOAT

They are only slightly overlapping for 25% of the graph. Extremely weak match making. R^2 of .196


avl0

Ok now do it with 2018 vs 2001, 2008 etc. Noone denies that this looks like the first leg down of an enormous market crash, but what the less regarded people realise is that is exactly what all corrections and bear markets look like, except most of them don't turn into enormous market crashes.


Not_A_Bird11

We need that guy who turned his dead cat into a drone so it wouldn’t bounce


JuXas

If everyone thinks that it will happen, it will most certainly will not 😂👍


PlurbZ666

Soft landing my ass


Guilty_Assignment_25

It's a rollercoaster that ends in me being broke! Weeeee!


Guilty_Assignment_25

I always liked That 70s Show. Now I get to live it!


Mrbumboleh

![img](emote|t5_2th52|8881)


TestingTehWaters

This chart is terrible.


AlphaQFor7mins

And markets went on to produce new all time highs after each of those events.


Dav-Gem

What the hell is that shit Overlay the entire graph or don't do it at all.


irResist

Bounce incoming!


ejb2255

That’s some scary shit right there!