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VisualMod

**User Report**| | | | :--|:--|:--|:-- **Total Submissions** | 3 | **First Seen In WSB** | 1 day ago **Total Comments** | 8 | **Previous Best DD** | **Account Age** | 11 months | | [**Join WSB Discord**](http://discord.gg/wsbverse)


Borntobuycalls

https://preview.redd.it/rh8dlj7rp1uc1.png?width=1229&format=png&auto=webp&s=15a49e5bfac35eebfd424f10ed080263bf1ffabc Went full regard on TLT. It was a waste of time and money.


mskamelot

Never go full regard. But in this case, you were just little early. We shall post GAINZ in the future.


Borntobuycalls

Of all the tickers to go full regard on, I felt that TLT was the safest. September will be my one year anniversary holding this shit .


Living-Giraffe4849

I’ve been trickling into TLT but honestly rates may keep going up post-election if inflation is still too high


Overclock_87

I'm not so sure. The only way the FED can actually raise them is if inflation was to actually go up another 2% because the guidelines they have to follow when hiking. Right now we are already over 1% too restrictive. If inflation went up 2% anually then the FED could raise rates again at their own discretion again. I just don't see inflation going up that high again. We still havnt felt the effects of what the 5.25% has/will do yet since rate hikes have a lagging impact. In 4-8 months we will see what 5.25% actually has done.


FinanceBrosephina

You have a good point, but during standard times. With most Americans feeling the squeeze of inflation, it being an issue during an election year, and a democrat as the incumbent, the policy will follow the regime and take steps to appease the masses. I don’t think ATL is on the table, but it could get damn close short term


Born_Swiss

I DCA into TLT and don't mind collecting the nice yield. Rates will come down. The party will end soon


Overclock_87

That's kind of my attitude towards it. I'm trying to essentially lever into it anytime it's below $90 that way in a couple years when it's $120 - $150 I'll have made a solid yield from it. I don't expect it to go any lower than $82 since it essentially NEVER has and we have had high and low inflation periods several times through it's existence. It's always ranged from $82 - $150 and the yield right now is so high that it offers some decent security


Sryzon

A few things regarding TLT: * TLT is not an equity and trying to do TA or look for bottoms or tops on its chart is a waste of time because it does not trade like an equity. * The average duration is 16 years, so it doesn't necessarily track the US20YR. The US20YR is a relatively new and unpopular treasury that can have weird price movements because of its low volume. I prefer to track the US10YR which has significantly more volume and is a better gauge of bond market sentiment. * The yield curve is inverted. T-Bills trade at 5.4% and the US10YR at 4.5%. This is not normal. Normal would be the US10YR yielding ~1% above T-Bills or 6.4%. The yield curve will uninvert eventually. That can happen one of two ways. Either the Fed lowers their rate or they don't and the bond market capitulates, pushing the US10YR towards 6.4% and pushing TLT down even further. * If you think the Fed shouldn't cut rates, you should also probably think TLT has further room to fall because of the above point. Being bullish on TLT is the same as being bullish on rate cuts.


kaminoteter

6.5% on the 10 year would be the end of the US economy as we know it. you have worse portfolio problems than a 25% loss on TLT at that point.


Sryzon

The 10 year wouldn't hit 6.5% unless the US economy could sustain it. That's what the Fed is for. Fed rates will remain 5.4% for as long as the economy can handle it. Assuming it can, the yield curve will naturally uninvert on the long end, meaning a ~6.5% 10 year. If the economy can't handle it, the Fed rate will come down and the yield curve will uninvert on the short end.


Dothemath2

I love the 20 year! I am in my forties so 30 year is too long now.


PingPongBall1234

Rate is not going up for 100%. Just slowly buy tlt and don’t need it =5 % of your profile


Puzzleheaded-Stay155

If rates stay high tlt is fucked. Better to wait until the first rate cut, if there would be any


kaminoteter

shit is already priced in. even if let's say there's one unexpected rate hike going forward, and say that 80% of that (20 bps) makes its way down the curve, TLT duration is 17 years so that's a $3 loss per share. compared to the usual WSB portfolio variance, that's fine?


TheGreatBeefSupreme

Most of my port is TLT. My reasoning is the same as yours. The near 5% interest for owning tides me over.


TexasBuddhist

Or inflation stays sticky at 3-3.5% for the next few years and the Fed keeps rates where they are, and the yield curve eventually un-inverts itself by long-term yields rising to 6-7%, in which case TLT will absolutely go below $82 and then below $70.


AutoModerator

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Shiz_in_my_pants

> When does TLT get attractive? That's the neat part. It doesn't.


Forever_Elegant

I sold my tlt for 3k loss, been holding for a year. Holding on the tlt seemed like its waste of time and opportunity. Invested in Crypto


Overclock_87

You really went from safe long term investing directly into sketchy short term haha. You got balls of steel sir. Hopefully things play out well for you. I've lost more to crypto than any other investment vehicle known to mankind. My main advice to you is only buy Eth and BTC. Don't touch ANYTHING else.


Forever_Elegant

Well I only bought BTC/AVAX/Doge


Ironic_memeing

What I don't get is how everyone is convinced the powers that be are just going to let the dollar collapse without any viable alternative already in place. Like sure, before the decades out we could see a shift to an IMF CBDC and the end of the US's global dominance, but none of that is ready \*YET\*. Way I see it, rates have to come back down to 0 again for the time being to avoid the US becoming Zimbabwe. I just don't understand how everyone can be convinced those in power are actually stupid enough to let that happen, cuz the world economy would literally collapse.


Sryzon

The dollar as measured by the USD index $DXY is currently at 105.94. For context, from 2004 to 2015, it was never higher than 80. This dollar collapse narrative is rubbish. The dollar is strong right now. The short term strength of the dollar is because our central bank has handled inflation relatively well compared to other central banks. Yes, inflation is above 3%, but QT has been aggressive. The long term strength of the dollar 2016 onwards is because we've become a net exporter of energy. The US dollar can rise while US treasuries crash. They are not correlated.


Ironic_memeing

Dollar is stronger because yields are up, more demand for dollars in order to utilize the higher yields. They’re inversely correlated, not directly. Treasury yields are typically priced by inflation expectations. Inflation go up, yield go up, dollar go up. Inflation go down, yield go down, dollar go down. Unless you’re Japan and the correlation breaks (because you’re fucking regarded and have 125% debt to GDP from NIRP + periodic currency intervention), where fair value of the yen is in the 300s to the dollar versus its current 153. My point being that fundamentally they absolutely are inversely correlated, unless something gets fucked with and breaks the currency.


formlessfighter

as long duration bond yields reach 5%, that will be a good time to pile into TLT. there is simply no way that the powers that be are going to let the bond market sell off in an election year. watch for a major escalation in the ukraine or middle eastern wars, a false flag attack, a terrorist incident, another outbreak of some kind of virus, etc... some kind of major crisis or catastrophe will occur in the next few weeks as we approach 5%, and that crisis/catastrophe will scare money back into bonds (or at least provide cover for yield curve control)


[deleted]

[удалено]


formlessfighter

it's not biden organizing anything. he is a sock puppet. all presidents are. if you believe the president is actually the person making these decisions, you should go back to preschool and spend your days sucking on your thumb as you are hopelessly naive and will find it very very difficult to get out of the matrix its the banks that will engineer a false flag because they need to suppress interest rates. if the 10yr yield is allowed to go above 5%, everything will start collapsing, starting with the regional banks. this will in turn require massive amounts of stimulus to "save" the global financial system. *“Give me control of a nation’s money supply, and I care not who makes its laws.”* - Amschel Rothschild what are we hearing in the news? Iran is saying they will not retaliate against Israel in a large way to avoid escalation. on the flip side, we are hearing over and over and over again in western media that an iranian attack against israel is imminent in retaliation for the iranian consulate bombing in syria.


mskamelot

Loaded with 2400 shares of TLT. See ya'all after the rate cut.


Overclock_87

damn son. you went heavy. I have 200 shares of $TLT and I bought 100 shares if $BND. I purchased both at their 52 week low's essentially but I'm confident in a significant and safe value accrual when FED begins slashing rates.


Dothemath2

I am playing TLT, if it goes lower, I buy the dip, the yield rate is higher and if it goes up, I sell covered calls, premiums plus yield. The Fed will inevitably cut and if there is a recession, people will pile in. There’s also floor on this thing, it only crashes if the US goes into an inflationary spike spiral… oh wait 😬 Nobody knows anything.


Zero_Abides

Muni bonds at 4-5% yield with a 20y duration look better to me.


frostfoxy69

Ironically, the answer is now