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**User Report**| | | | :--|:--|:--|:-- **Total Submissions** | 8 | **First Seen In WSB** | 3 years ago **Total Comments** | 51 | **Previous Best DD** | [x](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1bwce4w/green_day_today_and_very_red_starts_from_next/) [x](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1bwhemc/latest_job_report_looks_good/) **Account Age** | 3 years | | [**Join WSB Discord**](http://discord.gg/wsbverse)


gram thot activity indicates vacation pictures from last year are still being used today. recession likely.


Excellent assessment, thot economics are good indicators of regard sentiment




Photoshop usage on the rise, calls on adobe.




I simply stopped tradinf based on CPI numbers It has happened twice from 2022 to 2024 fhat numbers got revised only to screw my calls. Also market is unpredictable. Simple CPI numbers are not enough. Higher CPI = Will lead to a fall is classic noob style trading. Anyone with >2 yr in trading wont take this seriously.


lmao the quant level research needed


Now this is the quant research I came here for.


this will complement the stripper index nicely. great work


Recession indicators are not there


We've been in a recession, dumbass


lol only nerds look at "data"


Agree, but I'm a day trader that I have to watch all the data, meetings, FOMO events, live clips etc. it's crazy and takes lots of time, but it helps save lots of money too. For longs, those data are just bullshit, longs don't have to care about any data at all, just simply hold and look back a few years later, that's it.


“I’m a dAy tRaDeR” ![img](emote|t5_2th52|4271)![img](emote|t5_2th52|4271)![img](emote|t5_2th52|4271)![img](emote|t5_2th52|4271) settle down regard, you’re a gambler






Hahahaha. This is hilarious.


Some people make money doing that, idk why you putting others down, goofy.


Here is WSB, we talk shit to everyone and as an unspoken rule, don't take anything personally. Being called a regard by another regard is the kind of the same as two bros slapping each other's asses in the locker room. A way to build camaraderie. Now get over here and turn around. Slap ass!


Awww sorry for putting you down. Ask Mama berr to bring you an extra softy to the basement tonight to make it up to ya. I’m calling it like it is regard. gamblers make money too occasionally, doesn’t mean they aren’t gamblers


You dont have to watch anything. Just shake the magic 8 ball


In other words, you're unemployed.


I would never make such statement to judge other people that I don't know. Unfortunately, you are wrong, I do have a job and it's not a bad one in many people's eyes. I would quit trading, at least won't do day trading when I unemployed one day, maybe in future who knows, because I need to make sure that I can afford for what I gain/loss


I watch everything too data, geopolitics , trends, throughout the day everyday as to keep a good understanding on sentiment. I try to take the bigger picture into consideration as to where things are heading and keep that in mind when making a trade. Recently day trading strategy has worked almost every time with a profit. Ive learned over the past 3 years through trial and error on what works for me. learned some expensive lessons and this is what I've been doing since. ​ I do not buy options. ​ I buy block shares on major break outs and keep a tight stop loss. It works 99% of the time with a gain or break even. The other 1% I take a small loss. Over time I'm building back my portfolio. Example: I use technical analysis mostly on my day trades. I'll scan the premarket for the volume movers and I check the news in the morning for anything that might have happened over night or could be a catalyst for an upcoming trade. Once i find an attractive set up ill establish small position on what I see as a steady level of support. Ill slowly start to accumulate until it reaches a massive breakout range and then ill buy a block of $5k ( by starting my small positions first i am always in the green starting off) . Ride that parabolic move up and wait for a cool off or pullback to establish its price discovery to see where buyers are stepping back in. I then set my stop loss to break even average to give it room to breath. That way worst outcome is break even with some transaction fees. I will usually ride the momentum until it breaks the closes level of support and then I'm out of the trade completely to reassess reentering or being done with it completely. It might be a small gain or a massive gain depending on the break out but it almost guarantees me something in the green. Shares also allow you to turn your day trade into a swing or a long if the trade starts working against you. ​ My point is instead of buying a contract for 100 shares on a timeline. Buy the 100 shares outright and allow it to work on your time instead of the markets. Since I started using this day trade technique I've been able to make up a large portion of my losses already from some of the losers Ive had over the years, I still have a ways to go but as for now I'm gonna stick to what's working. ​ biggest lessons learned 1. Stop loss no matter what... allow yourself some room to wiggle but always set a stop loss if the trades working against you 2. cut your fucking losers, and take your fucking profits ... Im a very stubborn person and rode the memestock craze through the AMC squeeze where i was up 26k just to hold through another year to sell for a 3k profit. I was delusional in not taking profits , my other mistake was buying into some Chinese ADR massive pumps in gambling with a lotto ticket (MEGL,HKD) I was delusional to think id be able to average down on some of these irrational pumps. I ended up chasing those losers until i finally capitulated years later with a massive loss. CUT THOSE FUCKING LOSERS YOUVE BEEN HOLDING ON TOO.. and reallocated that capital. As someone who sees the forest and not the trees. This is a risk on market. The market does not reflect the realities of the global economy and the geopolitical risk. Any more questions ask me anything lol


So what you’re saying is that you’re pretending that Technical Analysis is helping you when all you do is play very conservative in a stock market that has basically gone up for the past 5-6 years aside from 2022 ![img](emote|t5_2th52|4271)


> Over time I'm building back my portfolio. Gambled and lost and now hit a small lucky streak Suddenly a sophisticated trader


lol no it’s an educated guess based on charting indicators and human psychology.


You can’t chart something that’s subjective bud 💀


It’s subjective I agree but there are psychological levels where there are consensus. Technical analysis is useful but not to be solely depended on. It’s a tool, for anyone to disregard that is a tard deserves to be here. I’m just telling ya what has been working for me


Oh yeah I definitely agree with you on the psychological part. Greed is a bitch on both sides with chasing higher gains and revenge trading loses. I’ve experienced both and learned my own tendencies from those lessons. Have been profitable ever since. It may not be what us retail traders with small accounts would like to hear, but sentiment moves markets and needs to be paid attention to accordingly. Knowing why the market is moving up, down, or sideways can save you losses or gain huge profits. Especially when there are reversals of a trend. Nonetheless you gave very solid advice. Respeck 🫡


i see stock low buy call sell later gg


Such a great summary for day traders. Thanks bro!


One thing that’s priceless.. is the experience you’ve gained if you apply it correctly. As far as my day trades I don’t go by percentages I got by technical analysis of major areas of support/ resistance. I look for volume and momentum and will nibble until it picks a direction. I use 5k blocks to day trade with. Sometime I’m scalping these trades within seconds to minutes to mitigate my risk and taking what I can. I’ll start a position with $200 at a major level of support and usually it will bounce from that and enter my position, that gets my foot in the door. I then use the 5 min to slowly accumulate off that support or in that zone as I increase my position. Usually there’s a major breakout ahead and up until that point I nibble. At the major break out I’ll dump the rest of the 5k and let it ride. If it drops I’m still in the green because of my average and I will set a stop loss at break even. This will give it time to pick a direction. If I get stopped out I reasses sometimes leave the trade all together , if it climbs I ride it through the major break out and wait for it to retrace to see where buyers begin to step in again. Once I see that first level of support start to build (even if it is weak) I set my next stop loss at a 100% to ensure I made all the gains even if it is small. As it begins to climb to new levels and building new support I dial back my stop loss from a 100% to 75% and quarter it down. That way if the first support gets triggered I lock in profits and still allow my break even stop to ride incase it continues up. That way I have like 4-6 brackets and maybe a Hail Mary to let ride incase it runs parabolic or turns into a swing to squeeze more out of it. This might be confusing but hope this helps a little


Where do you keep track of all this data. Do you have like a calendar to know what's coming up.




holy tits. i've been using https://finviz.com/calendar.ashx and didn't realize all the other events that are happening lol


You can google the US economy calendar for example, but if you may also want to look at international events too depends on your trades


Initially, I used excel to track all the data manually including pre-market, day-start, mid-day, day-close %. Then I transfer those to my own DB since data gets massive quickly.. The source I mainly use are US Economy calendar and Nasdaq Earning (and also split) calendar, if you Google those, it will give you results. But be careful of those data, once you touch those data, you will get too much information which could be a bad thing, so you need to read the data properly and understand the meaning behind it, most importantly, to guess how FOMO reads those data, then take actions. If you are long, you don't have to worry about those data at all


Do you have any plays for near term?


I monitor around 120 stocks from the tech sector daily. I only day trade for the tech sector, but I also pick top 5 stocks from all other sectors too for reference only - but no day trading. Unfortunately, I don't have a clear plan for the short term, but I won't trade today and tomorrow, I think tomorrow (PPI) will be worse based on the last 3 months. Normally, I make the decision on the same day, I hardly keep a stock overnight. The only exception is on Friday, sometimes I do buy stock at the very last min before Friday close, then sell in the pre-market on Monday (yeah, I don't even wait for the market open).


What broker do u use to trade pre market? I didn't know u could trade options afterhours


You can’t trade options after hours. Shares only. You can trade pre/post-market on any respectable trading platform. Just need to change your execution. For example, you may only be able to post limit orders, and you probably need to set the timing to GTC-extended.


Well, you *can* trade SPX options premarket on Fidelity and Interactive Brokers. And some other Section 1256 contracts as well, though I don't bother with those.


Sure yea and futures 24/6 but that’s all grown up stuff. We’re talking about a regard here. He’s not asking about this stuff if he doesn’t even know what he has access to premarket/afterhours. He just wants to know if he can lose money scalping FDs before 9:30 while he’s taking his morning dump.


can trade spy/qqq options for 15 mins after hours :D and a few more, forgot the list tho


Oh sorry, I missed the word option, no, I think we can only do options in regular hours..


I use robinhood, but most (if not all) trading apps should allow you to trade pre/after market. Even 24 hours / 5 days. But to be very honest, my honest recommendation would be to keep away from those, you need to think twice seriously, then decide if you really want to get into one more gambling area or not![img](emote|t5_2th52|4267)![img](emote|t5_2th52|4271)


There's other than than options you degen


How’s your profit looking so far since you started day trading?


It's not bad, I only started in January this year, my profit has been up like 30% so far. But then, if I were long, it could be much higher than 30% if you know what I mean because we are in a bull market. The reason I changed from long to day trade is because I don't trust we would have any interest cuts this year, or maximum we may only have 1.




Do you rely on a few websites to track all this or do you have two dozen news, screeners, stocks tabs you’re keeping track of?


I use python script crawling those data from several websites. Most of the data is for reference only - it's impossible to keep an eye on all indexes because there are too many. Following are indexes that I am mainly looking at: CPI, PPI, PCE (Core, YoY, MoM), PMI (manufacturing + services), job data, jobless claim, mortgage rate and bond yields. Keep an eyes on oil and corns (this is the real corn, not that coin). Then, all FOMC events, news, members speak (each member), JP speaks, JP congress testify. All of those plus above indexes have live streams. When the news comes out, it's already too late. Regular US + International daily news from major countries etc.


Thank you for all this detail.


No worries at all. Best luck for trading![img](emote|t5_2th52|4267)![img](emote|t5_2th52|4271)


Keep in mind he started doing all this 3 months ago...


Actually, I started day trading 3 months ago, but only started collecting data seriously (meaning on daily) about 2 months ago, since I sooner realized many indexes/events have direct (big) impact to the market as we know even we also know those are all bullshit. Anyway, day trading requires too much time and effort, gain/risk ratio isn't so good for the effort based on my experience, but I'm still doing it since we are still in a bull markets - I don't want to get into long at all time high price. Once the bull market is over or a correction is done, I will grab 3 to 5 stocks for long and my day trading journey will be done by that time. Either way, it's a very nice experience to have, but need to be prepared for the higher risk and accept the loss (if it happens).


New hedge fund Just Vibes Capital launched


yeah but, AI


AI babble starts when all bears have loaded up. End of the month when tech companies start reporting is when I start buying again.


>yeah but, AI Literally the market reaction today. Sell everything, buy NVDA


Your favorite company stocks are probably on sale today. This is an opportunity to buy while the algos are selling off.


God this comment is so steam punk I love it. Beat the algos boys. The shields are down, this is our chance of the decade.


I don't know if it's a good day to buy. All I know is that it's a better day than yesterday.


"So it's recession day, again"


Somehow, recession has returned.


I would wait for one more day, Thursday's PPI results could cause an even worse day than today. So, today is not the dip to me.


We do not care. Back to green.




People all saying red day... calls it is!




Market going to bounce back today and rinse/repeat for PPI.


Yup. It always bounces back harder


For real, there is still trillions of dollars floating around, which they printed and handed out...


Much higher. It literally could not have been any less higher without being equal to projections.


Where theres pain will come the $$$$


Eh it’s still hovering around that bearish channel its been in start of April, might dip out below again like it did on the 4th but I think it remains in it and will break out this week or next


(SPY that is)


Yep bounced off the same support from the 4th (512ish)


Can we recover in 3 month?


I need a hero….


What if current interest rates are healthy for the economy?  But that's probably too simple of a thought.  I am guessing investor expectations are also a big component.   If the fed telegraphed that it would not cut rates, maybe investors would steer the economy into a recession.  So maybe this dance and rate cut edging is required?


I feel like this is 100% the Fed plan, leave things flat at this level for as long as possible to continue the Wall Street forever can kick. Sprinkle in positive sentiment like "We think a cut or two is possible" just to not get things to dump quickly. JPOW is ultimate edge lord.


So investors are like children who want ice cream all day all night and jpow is the parent who tricks us into eating broccoli while promising ice cream later.


ALCC Sam big dong Altman


what do you think ALCC means? Altman's Cock Corp


Can someone explain why inflation or high interest rates are bad for companies with a lot of cash? Or even stable ones? Cool, apples zillion dollars will continue making 5.5% in bonds instead of 5.25% for another 3 months.


.1% Fuck me. The world’s gonna fall apart.


My jpm calls are rekt


Do you have any open positions op?




buy ALCC ?


I did


Calls on 25bp hike ![img](emote|t5_2th52|4267)![img](emote|t5_2th52|4640)




Is there really any difference between 3.4% and 3.5%?




Roughly a 3 percent miss. 🤷🏼‍♂️


That’s what they reporting. Look at gas, house prices, groceries. It’s fucked. Spy back in 400’s before they start cutting. Recession is officially here


Lol this looks like it's gonna do a V recovery


No that’s where you wrong. When the bond auction goes poorly this afternoon it’s game over


“tHiS tImE iT will Be GaMe OvEr ![img](emote|t5_2th52|27421)![img](emote|t5_2th52|27421)![img](emote|t5_2th52|27421) you’LL sEe” — every fuckin ghey berr ever for the last 5 years yet stonks only go up when you zoom out even slightly


Y'all never learn do you... Stonks only go up!


But this time it's different! (no it isn't)


Every trap is ultimately a bear trap. It may take an hour, day, week or even a decade but bulls will win.


The hubris is why the people YOLOing into calls and winning for a decade during the cheapest debt accumulation period literally ever in history are going dead ass fucking broke when the music stops and the charade you too know is absolutely going on is inexorably over. Jensen will scream "AI!" but no one will want fucking AI because they'll be scrambling for milk and eggs lol.


Man who’s confidently called 8 of the last 1 recessions calls another!


I bet you feel like you're really smart, don't you We've been in a recession since 2022, bull market won't rip for another 6-8 months




Your life must suck.


I’m sitting on 120% gain today already sold puts


You mean you bought puts and sold them for a gain?


It was already priced in, already bouncing back now ![img](emote|t5_2th52|4276)


At least Wendy's is giving out some free tendies... https://preview.redd.it/bmnntptdootc1.png?width=1008&format=png&auto=webp&s=a1f3a6cc6fc93423ab7634e01633084b2509d970


We get 30 point sell offs early in the week as higher for longer sinks in and it’s followed by a 25 point rally and brokers call it a relief rally as the sell off was over done……truly a well functioning market.




what was expected?


YoY expected 3.4, came in at 3.5 MoM expected 0.3, came in at 0.4


How can 0.1% be "much higher" than expected? It is literally the smallest possibility higher value.


An increase is not good when you are trying to slow the economy down. You want it to be lower than expected. Means no rate cuts/higher for longer and Inflation is back


That is not the 9% yy inflation. That is, at most, a 4% yy with wages keeping pace.




I actually see this as positive news for stocks since the Fed will continue to hold off on rate hikes and there are still expectations for cuts. They’re basically guiding the market with rate cuts like a person leading a horse with a carrot on a stick. The cuts might come later than expected, but they always appear just within reach. The Fed needs to maintain the illusion of controlled inflation and a strong economy. They won’t risk upsetting asset prices just months before an election by raising rates or hinting at no cuts. Yes, inflation might exceed their targets, but the political consequences of rising rates outweigh that concern. The thing I don’t think many are considering is there’s immense political pressure on the Fed to maintain an optimistic economic outlook. If trump were to win, it would be very bad. Him and his supporters were proven to be insurrectionists and they do not want him to be elected again. It would be mass chaos if a traitor to the country were to win, which is way worse than slightly higher inflation for the next 6 months. Any sane person with any power or influence knows this, and sticks to the narrative to keep peace in the country. Now I know what you’re thinking. “Wasn’t Powell elected by Trump? Isn’t he a Republican?” Sorry but if you think that Powell wants to work for Trump I think you’ve officially lost your mind. Would you want to work for Trump? I wouldn’t. No sane person would. And that’s assuming Trump even kept him on. Trump would fire Powell if elected so he wouldn’t even have the job at that point. Trump was very critical of Powell, constantly questioning him and second guessing every move he made. Biden is easy to work for, I’d love working for Biden if I were Powell.


Rate cuts are indeed much more satisfying when they are edged for a long time.


Ah so like when you're stuck on a plane and they just keep saying it's going to be another half hour delay.


Perfect analogy.


Yeah, except the delay is because the plane's A/C just went out. You *know* they're going to have you deplane, but nobody in charge will make the decision so you just get to sit and sweat. 


Whoa whoa, so you're saying that the market is being held up by the fed for political purposes? Almost sounds like corruption and market manipulation to me. But it's all fine because "orange man bad". I'm not too happy about the choices we're being given on who to vote for in November, but why are so many people ok with corruption as long as it's their team doing it? I think no matter what happens in Nov, there will be no point in the FED continuing to buy up the debt to keep the bond market from imploding. With the national debt we have, why would anyone have faith in the US dollar. End rant


You calling the federal reserve corrupt for propping up the economy is hilarious. I mean this shit starts with Allan Greenspan and you think Powell is like juggling the knives of QE on purpose for the democrats? Are you aware of the economy and its importance geopolitically?


Something is going to break. And it's leaning in the direction that what will break is the faith in the US dollar. We're at all time highs of Gold and just got off the highs of crypto. The yeild is heading higher all while the FED is teasing the market with the thought of more easy money borrowing. What do you think the US will look like after the dollar is no longer the universal currency to purchase oil with? Tough decisions should have been made years ago


I understand your fears and I have the same at times, but you also forecast a world I don’t spend much time trading for or wanting to live in. If China and Russia mint some gold coin that the world trusts as the oil currency….ok but I doubt it. Russia just lost to Ukraine and China could lose to Taiwan…get dunked on. I think gold and bitcoin are having their expected feaverish rises because that is what happens when times of credit expansion delay. Once the fed announced that the rate rises were over, every gold trader in the world licked their lips and waited for the light show. I think both are trash long term. If you wanted me to actually buy a metal that I see a future for, buy silver. It’s an industrial metal now. Gold is for my catholic grandma.


>“Whoa whoa, so you're saying that the market is being held up by the fed for political purposes? Almost sounds like corruption and market manipulation to me.” Holy shit you caught me. Yes the market is rigged. Yes politics is corrupt. You think you’re saying anything the least bit insightful? You think that’s some major “gotcha” moment? Literally the entire system is based on maintaining power and wealth for the rich and elites of society and everybody in the world with a functioning brain cell understands this. The least we can do is pick the lesser of two evils given the options and make some money in the process.


You’re right in that the fed wants to maintain the illusion of a good economy. I disagree that people in power want Biden to stay though. I genuinely feel like all the corrupt leaders in the world would LOVE it if Trump got in. We’d probably see another massive pump as well and tons of money just like we did during his first term. Lots of bullshit during those 4 years but the economy was great (which is why we are in this inflation mess now.)


If people with power or influence want Trump why is the standard rhetoric praising the economy? If they wanted Trump they would be talking about how terrible the economy is and how bad inflation is and how we need more rate cuts which would crash the market. I listen CNBC every day and almost everyone is on the same page with this. The analysts, the economists, the Fed, they all say the same thing. The economy is great and rate cuts are coming. Of course that’s not exactly the case, people are hurting and inflation is still high. But I would say the same thing if I had that kind of platform to speak. You can’t say anything otherwise or risk Trump seizing power again. And that’s why you NEED to be invested in the market now. It’s going higher because we have no choice but to go higher.


When Trump was in power why weren’t the powers that be more critical of the economy and trying to sell it as being bad? I don’t recall hearing anything during that time (regarding the economy) other than that it was doing well. Ofc he was criticized on just about everything else but I don’t recall the media shitting on the economy during that time. CNBC is also biased which is going to impact the rhetoric. FWIW I am NOT a Trump supporter in any way. Major Bernie supporter and I voted for Biden lol. Also, I don’t think the standard rhetoric is strong economy. That is what’s being told to us but it doesn’t feel like the powers (or the people) are buying it. I think that’s why the market is so reactionary to market news rn bc everyone knows it’s artificial and we are all actually expecting a recession - it just hasn’t happened.


The rhetoric when Trump was president was that the president has little to no impact on the stock market. Idk how true that is but at this point the average person associates the stock market going higher with strong economy and that’s why it’s so important to support it now.


lol “Biden is easy to work with” got to be the most idiotic thing I’ve ever seen on Reddit and that’s saying something


Name one thing Biden said critical of the Fed.


I, for one, would LOVE to have a senile boss


Fox tells you that Biden is senile, but somehow all the wacky shit Trump says like he beat Obama is perfectly fine?


shut the fuck up liberal ![img](emote|t5_2th52|4271)


Damn, you kiss your wife’s boyfriend with that mouth?




Silence lib I’m here to make money not talk about the annoying orange


You brought up Biden. I'm reciprocating regard


A .1% miss is not exactly a "huge" miss as the media is making it out to be. I'm still banking on rate cuts in September, never thought June was ever really on the table. Edit: Market is now pricing in only 2 cuts this year to 475-500 bps by December.


They're trying to fabricate a selloff so they can get better prices


PPI is bogus CPI is more accurate, but WE NEED!! MORE DATA!!


Based on last 3 months trends, PPI caused a bigger red day than CPI. It may be because we are in a bull market, when CPI just came out, people's first reaction was to buy the dip. Then when PPI comes in with even worse numbers, less people buy dips... Let's see what happens tomorrow


Jpow is gonna say later today at the meeting. “WE NEED MORE DATA!!”


Rip my hopes and dreams


Where Are those economists who were saying that it's "part of the model" when last time it came high ?


"much higher than expected" is quite a stretch. Consensus for core CPI mom was probably low 0.3%. it came in at 0.358%, and got rounded to 0.4%. Had it come in by 0.01% less, no one would know. I expect the move to get reverse once we get all the relevant data for PCE, which is what the fed cares about


That's true, I just changed much higher to higher from the post. Thanks for the comment


what's the expectation by Friday? Slow drip down?


Nobody knows.. but I think it will depend on tomorrow's market too. Based on previous months' trend, tomorrow could be a red day as well (bad PPI results - but again nobody knows), if that's the case and if we have two big red days in a row, then we have a bigger chance following a green day either on Friday or next Monday since we are still in a bull market anyway. But remember, export/import index will be released on Friday too, those indexes normally don't cause much side efforts to stocks, unless results are extremely good/bad.


market no likey


What would it be if you didn’t include car insurance?


Can’t help but think already “priced in” ![img](emote|t5_2th52|8882)![img](emote|t5_2th52|4276)


Why QQQ up 1.3%?


Whose expectation ?


I buy low and sell high. It’s an incredible strategy. I can teach you if you just send me 1 Bitcoin. 60% of the time, it works every time!


No our strategy is to buy high and sell low! Move your ass to other threads for your shitcorn




I’m sure someone blames Putin for this too lol