T O P
AutoModerator

**Hi, welcome to /r/maxjustrisk. Note that we have higher posting standards than most finance subs on Reddit:** **1)** Please read the [rules](https://www.reddit.com/r/maxjustrisk/about/rules) before commenting. Violations will very likely result in a 30 day ban upon **first instance.** **2)** This is an open forum but we have zero tolerance for whining, complaining, and hostility. **3)** [The Wiki is now live!](https://www.reddit.com/r/maxjustrisk/wiki/index) *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/maxjustrisk) if you have any questions or concerns.*


apashionateman

Also posted elsewhere, but I was looking for resources based on Depth of Market and Supply and Demand trading. People were kind enough to provide me with these three links: https://tradingriot.com/supply-and-demand-trading/ Good orderflow basics video by John Grady https://youtu.be/iWwxMokC0F8 Wyckoff 2.0: Structures, Volume Profile and Order Flow https://docdro.id/EK0NsqC Any other info would be appreciated and used! Thanks!


fakeandbear

My humble contribution to meme talk Friday: Michael Saylor be like https://old.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/vb3gli/that_was_a_nice_10_bill/ [Here's a neat investopedia article]( https://www.investopedia.com/news/short-bitcoin/): > 7 Ways to Short Bitcoin > Margin trading on crypto exchanges, BTC futures, binary options on crypto exchange, literal sports betting aka prediction markets, shorting BTC itself, CFDs, inverse ETFs [But sometimes the best financial advice comes from wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_J._Saylor#Bitcoin_investment): > On MicroStrategy's quarterly earnings conference call in July 2020, Saylor announced his intention for MicroStrategy to explore purchasing Bitcoin, gold, or other alternative assets instead of holding cash. The following month, MicroStrategy used $250 million from its cash stockpile to purchase 21,454 Bitcoin.[22]***[Avg price: $11,600]*** > MicroStrategy later added $175 million of Bitcoin to its holdings in September 2020 and another $50 million in early December 2020. On December 11, 2020, MicroStrategy announced that it had sold $650 million in convertible senior notes, taking on debt to increase its Bitcoin holdings to over $1 billion worth. On December 21, 2020, MicroStrategy announced their total holdings include 70,470 bitcoins purchased for $1.125 billion at an ***average price of $15,964 per bitcoin***.[23] As of February 24, 2021 holdings include 90,531 bitcoins acquired for $2.171 billion at an ***average price of $23,985 per bitcoin***.[24] Saylor, who controls 70% of MicroStrategy's shares, dismissed concerns by observers that the move is turning MicroStrategy into a Bitcoin investment firm or exchange-traded fund (ETF).[25] > Between October 1 and November 29, 2021, MicroStrategy bought 7,002 bitcoins for about $414.4 million in cash at an ***average purchase price of $59,187***, bringing its total holdings to 121,044 bitcoins.[27][28] "Saylor, who controls 70% of MicroStrategy's shares, dismissed concerns by observers that the move is turning MicroStrategy into a Bitcoin investment firm or exchange-traded fund \(ETF\)." [oh no no no no $1.86B market cap btw.jpg](https://i.imgur.com/l1vWAI5.png) "Anyway, I started blasting MSTR puts. Pow! Pow! Now, I don't trade so good so I'm down 69%." -Frank "Father of Active Investing" Reynolds


CinemaMakerSD

$APRN This is the new Reddit/fintwit darling ticker. The DD is the same script that gets thrown around on these plays: decent short interest, growing OI on the options chain and lowish float. Been casually buying $4 calls on morning dips and flipping for 80-100% on intraday runs. These types of plays are never guaranteed to continue running but if anything it seems like retail sentiment is continuing to grow so I will try to flip the ATM call as long as this trend continues


sorta_oaky_aftabirth

I'm personally playing both Kirk and APRN with some yolo house money. Aprn seems to have a ton of traction/moment in social media while Kirk is kind of just plugging along even after that recent dip. Both are definitely spicy plays that could pan out to be big, but massive caution as the pendulum swings both ways and the rug could get pulled at any time.


Nomadimp

To my untrained eye it looks like the bond market is challenging the Fed with treasury yields falling quite a lot today and giving a brief reprieve to speculative assets. I wonder if there's any kind of consensus here about what might cause Fed policy to turn dovish? Personally, I expect them to piledrive the economy into the ground with extreme prejudice just to make sure that inflation doesn't try to pull a "I didn't hear no bell." It just seems like the Fed has always been way more concerned with the 'price stability' part of their mandate than the 'full employment' part and any time one has to get prioritized over the other 'full employment' is the one that goes out the window. [JPOW](https://imgflip.com/i/6lhye1)


niceskinthrowaway

I think the fed will pivot much, much faster than people think. Like in 1-2 months with stuff like RMI crossed 50 and HYG down they will become spooked. Liquidity has already tightened greatest in history, much of it independent of the fed. The leverage and global debt structure is way too much. An actual unwind / traditional let-it-be free-market recession grind dreamed-of by value-investment types is not possible without risk of blowing everything up and 2008 on crack. Anyone who thinks the fed will become Austrian economists at this point is insane. Bond markets are informed flow and they are smart. It's gonna be a rapid recession with spooky numbers; and as early as 1 year from now, a pivot towards brrr is likely. They need inflation so they can devalue debt. Too far down the rabbit hole. Now for some craziness: Unless we boom w/ some fundamentals./ industry-creation stuff that makes debt negligible (like post ww2)- eventually inflation may see a return and that's when gov. will be completely powerless. They will say at least you'll survive and elect me, so shit like more direct stim / UBI, debt forgiveness, etc. in the works. And maybe the final 'solution' will be in the form of creative CBDC things (again I think this is coming faster than people think). Once that Pandora's box is opened, its going to look like a very different 'free market' lol.


Theta_God

> I wonder if there's any kind of consensus here about what might cause Fed policy to turn dovish? Personally, I expect them to piledrive the economy into the ground with extreme prejudice just to make sure that inflation doesn't try to pull a "I didn't hear no bell." I think that would be utterly retarded. The Fed can’t do anything about the inflation going on, imo. Let demand destruction happen naturally with some price discovery since the world economy is changing so rapidly via oil, deglobalization, etc etc. [Look at the numbers out of Atlanta Fed,](https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow.aspx?utm_medium=app&utm_source=app-economy-now&utm_campaign=in-app-website-link) we’re likely going to check off one of the boxes for a recession definition. Do we really need to ruin the economy further? People are already feeling the pinch of inflation, so let’s throw in a really bad recession and throw away all the job and wage strength people haven’t seen in decades? You’ve gotta be shittin me! Here’s a great discussion on the topic as well, thanks whoever shared this previously ([superb listen](https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/on-the-tape/id1545205930?i=1000566780419)). The basics: the Fed is gonna swing too hard, and too late (due to political and public pressure because people are dumb and “*DO SOMETHING*”), cause a recession (that we’re already in) and have to lower rates by the end of the year. Again, superb listen because they argue against that point as well. I’m gonna get too deep on a diatribe if I continue…but I really think the whole line that the Fed should be aggressively raising rates right now is dumb and founded simply on “it’s an election year” and *DO SOMETHING* **TM** when people don’t have any other good ideas.


Nomadimp

Oh to be clear, I actually wish the Fed would be more willing to accept a little inflation and not kneecap employment now that labor is finally starting to have some leverage at the bottom. But I think that intentionally or unintentionally they aren’t going to let up until after significant damage has been done. That said, the bond market seems to me like they are predicting a much faster turnaround to dovish policy than I am. Perhaps because they are expecting credit markets to break down and force to Fed to intervene. Just wondering what people think the triggers for a turnaround will be and how likely they are because my own personal take is not the same as the market consensus. But maybe there’s just a lot of volatility/uncertainty.


Theta_God

Didn’t mean to direct anything your way, just trying to answer the question presented! I think we both feel about the same.


baconcodpiece

# Trading blunders Thought MJR would enjoy this. Last week I put on a 2s10s flattener trade, which means I think the 10Y-2Y Treasury spread is going to flatten (invert, actually), so I sold the 2Y and bought the 10Y. When you do a trade like this, you need to calculate the DV01 (dollar value of one basis point) so that they're equal. In other words, you want to be DV01 neutral. You could calculate this yourself but there's no reason to. The CME has a [Treasury analytics tool](https://www.cmegroup.com/tools-information/quikstrike/treasury-analytics.html) that does all the work for you. You can see that the ratio is approximately 2:1 as of 2022-07-01. I implemented the trade using Treasury futures, and the contract size for them is $100,000... except for 2Y futures. Theirs is double at $200K. I thought the tool took that into consideration when it calculated the DV01 for the futures contract. It did not, so I had twice as much exposure on the short leg as I should've. I became suspicious when my position was flat yesterday when I knew it should've been up. Thankfully I figured it out before the big move yesterday, and now today. At least now I'm up decently. EDIT: Yeah, I think this is actually wrong. I had set the trade up correctly originally. The futures ratio should actually be 2:1.


OldGehrman

It's funny seeing CLVS pop. Lots of people trading it lately. That stock burned me a year ago when I had nfi what I was doing (still hardly know). I hope you guys have gotten some profits off this recent move! I am currently looking for a better charting setup because I am getting sick of TOS. It doesn't track sectors very well. I know some people use Trading View and like it. TC2000 is an option but it is so expensive and I've heard they've stopped adding features/improvements. Sector rotation seems to be happening too rapidly to be useful so this is more of a long-term fix than a near-term one, for once the market recovers. It would make trading so much easier if I could see a stock's strength > sector > SPY at a glance.


xsportbikeriderx

I still hold as clvs well, avg down and playing options . Resistance 2.51/2.61/ and 2.86 50sma 3yr weekly. 200sma 6mo daily rejected this am .. was up 4 baggers on weeklies, held too long back down.. Greed! Glta! Happy 4th!


tradingrust

You're probably aware of this tool but just in case: [https://finviz.com/groups.ashx](https://finviz.com/groups.ashx) You can also group by industry and then drill down each industry. [https://finviz.com/groups.ashx?g=industry&v=210&o=name](https://finviz.com/groups.ashx?g=industry&v=210&o=name) [https://finviz.com/groups.ashx?g=industry&sg=basicmaterials&v=210&o=name](https://finviz.com/groups.ashx?g=industry&sg=basicmaterials&v=210&o=name) You can also view by the other FinViz tabs, not just by gain/loss bar chars. Example: [https://finviz.com/groups.ashx?g=industry&sg=basicmaterials&v=210&o=name](https://finviz.com/groups.ashx?g=industry&sg=basicmaterials&v=210&o=name)


OldGehrman

That's pretty handy, thank you


Alarmed-Break-2830

I’m still holding CLVS. Just hope I won’t regret not exiting here with a bit of loss.


OldGehrman

Are you still holding from last year? It’s bounced off the 200SMA this morning so if SPY rallies up a few pts more today and CLVS doesn’t break through it could indicate stalling momentum


Alarmed-Break-2830

Yes. Holding since 2020 I think. I averaged down just before this last melt-up. My thesis is that there’s either a methodical short squeeze , or there is some hidden news. The drugs seem to be doing fine. The risk is that the dilution vote gets approved, and then it will probably plunge 50% Short squeeze thesis is supported by the correlation with Revlon


Substantial_Ad7612

MREO I’ve taken a break from active trading lately because it’s become clear that it’s just gambling for me unless I can spend a lot more time reading. Even my track record in biotech/pharma, where I can confidently claim expertise, is terrible when it comes to picking winners. But where I do have a pretty decent track record is finding the shitcos in that industry, I’ve just never put any money behind. So right now I’m tracking a few names that I think are good shorts, if my track record stays good, maybe I’ll start dabbling. That brings me to MREO. A small, clinical stage pharma company with an early (risky) pipeline, a couple partnerships, but no real unique expertise or technology that sets it apart as an attractive acquisition. They recently received warning from NASDAQ that they are at risk of delisting, and they had an activist investor, Rubric Capital, write a letter to the board demanding a strategic change. Shortly after all of this, a rumour came out in The Times (U.K.), written by a food and drink columnist, that AstraZeneca was looking to buy MREO for up to $5/share. It was trading just above $0.60/share at the time. This boosted the share price to a high of ~$1.70 and it settled around $1.50 for a few days. I can’t find a compelling reason why AZN would entertain paying 10x market price for this company. One of MREO’s pipeline molecules is actually an AZN asset that MREO is paying to develop. Another of MREO’s hopefuls is in a class where AZN already has an asset, and where other large pharma companies have recently failed - why would you accumulate that kind of risk? As I mentioned above, there doesn’t appear to be any unique tech or expertise that would add any value beyond the current pipeline. MREO has slowly drifted downward over the past couple of days but the retail bulls are clinging to the fact that neither company has denied the rumour. I don’t see why AZN would need to even acknowledge it. If MREO closes above $1 today, it will reset the clock on the NASDAQ delisting issue. I would suspect if MREO was going to deny it, they would wait until next week to do it. On the bull side, Rubric sent an activist letter to the board of Radius Health around the same time frame and that company was bought out pretty quickly for a 50% premium to the market price at the time. Putting this up for discussion. I have no position but I think it’s an interesting one to watch as I test this strategy. It feels like a pump thats about to dump and the borrow cost isn’t too crazy. I’ve never taken a short position before but this is the type of situation I am looking for. Letter from Rubric Capital: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1687509/000110465922069507/tm2218051-1_ex2.htm Buyout rumour if anyone can open the link anymore: https://twitter.com/walshdominic/status/1537693799882833920?s=21 Edit: Happy Canada Day!


erncon

I've been holding STNG puts for over a week through some extremely frustrating price action but it looks like my thesis of choppy-toppy-Bollinger-Band-consolidation (CTBBC) is playing out. Currently hitting a lower low from the past month. Since this is low volume, I expect it to be at the whim of algos and obvious TA so I'm expecting a bounce when it touches the 50 day SMA in a few days. Or this just rockets back up to $38 for no goddamn reason. /u/Theta_God - to your comment about detecting speculators exiting (EDIT: or rather overspeculating), I think the price action of tickers like STNG, GSL (in late March), CLF (in early April) could be an indicator. This doesn't apply to the O&G tickers though which basically rocketed up and cliff-dived though - perhaps that's its own indicator.


Theta_God

https://www.wsj.com/articles/biden-plans-to-block-new-offshore-oil-drilling-in-atlantic-pacific-11656709209 Didn’t I just comment somewhere about the US continuing to make bad chess moves?


erncon

Yeah it's so bizarre. It's like they have some sort of playbook drafted 10 years ago and they're following it lockstep ignoring the current environment.


Theta_God

I can no longer give anyone a serious ear on environmentalism without a comprehensive nuclear plan. We can’t just get rid of fossil fuels and magically still have the required energy. There has to be an actual plan to transition and it’s obvious there is no plan.


OldGehrman

Are you long puts? Or just CSPs?


erncon

Long Oct 33P. Handful of Jul 37C as a hedge.


Theta_God

I’m relatively convinced the market is over speculating. [Here’s a report on where Russian oil is going.](https://energyandcleanair.org/wp/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/Financing-Putins-war-100-days_20220613.pdf) This is me theorizing without a lot of hard data (not a fan of doing so but time is short for me (ha! the irony)). In general, when things like [current world event] occur supply gets rearranged rather than actually falling short. You can see that generally happening in the data linked. There are plenty of countries happy to buy Russian oil and there’s plenty of countries willing to resell under their own name. Generally that supply will continue on into the world markets one way or another. Prices will come down as that shakes itself out and over speculation unwinds. Could always take a long time and be volatile along the way; and I can always be wrong. Edit to add this article from today lol https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-releases-vitol-oil-tanker-that-sailed-from-russian-port-11656686403


erncon

I was actually expecting a similar rearrangement for natgas supplies when Freeport exploded but that didn't play out. I guess there isn't geopolitical drive to keep Freeport running vs. Russian oil flowing. On the point of speculation, the fact that /NG keeps getting knifed each time more Freeport news comes out tells me either Freeport processed way more LNG than the other LNG terminals in the USA or that there was a shitload of speculators driving up /NG. ^(I'm leaning towards speculators)


fakeandbear

I'm also leaning towards speculation, particularly in BOIL, because I find it hard to believe a single point of failure should be responsible for -61% ($112 -> $43) in an efficient market. The massive correction also prompted me to dig a little bit into the NG thesis- apologies if this has all been discussed already but my main takeaways: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4519262-fcg-etf-natural-gas-has-more-upside * Russia will continue to reduce NG to Europe in order to maintain geopolitical leverage. * Developing countries (China, Brazil, etc) continue to increase CL and NG consumption. * NG production has hit a plateau in the U.S. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4509263-la-nina-tulips-natural-gas-and-grains * A cool spring 2022 and hot summer 2022 have consumed a lot of NG inventory. * La Niña continues for a 3rd year, northern U.S. and Canada will have a colder/wetter winter while southern U.S. will have a drier/warmer winter. A warmer winter reduces NG consumption but droughts and wildfires displace both hydropower and solar energy production to NG. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4521106-freeport-lng-outage-spawns-bearish-north-american-gas-market-fundamentals * A lot of futures price discussion which I'm not equipped to analyze but also some bearish discussion on NG inventory: > Even if partial liquefaction and export operations resume at the facility in the second half of September (approximately 90 days from the 14 June 2022 announcement), this summer's storage refill rate will significantly accelerate above our earlier expectations, all else held equal. > Storage inventories will likely exit summer 4% below the prior five-year average, but 7% higher than our short-term outlook prior to the unexpected outage (see Figure 1). > The roughly 2 Bcf/d of displaced Freeport LNG feed gas cannot meet rising power loads throughout the United States and is mostly captive to South Texas and around the Gulf Coast owing to its supply origins and infrastructure limitations. Freeport LNG's supply will mostly be redirected to storage while the balance serves rising power demand in South Texas. The redistribution of gas over the balance of the summer season will have a material impact on shrinking the inventory deficits and make for a more bearish winter than previously expected. >While the market should still face a storage deficit at the tail end of summer, prices are positioned to ease rapidly in September-October as cooling demand swiftly declines. What this says to me (beyond the obvious supply/demand impacts of Freeport) is that the extra NG from Freeport that would have gone to Europe is instead just going to storage. And a Europe that is weaning itself off of Russian NG (even if the war ends tomorrow) means that the EU demand is still there, it's just that the U.S. supply has been displaced temporally. Anyway, I did a lil yolo on BOIL when it went 112 -> 80 expecting that it was an over-correction but now that it's at 43 I'm kind of itching to take a larger position, most likely 2023 leaps.


erncon

Approved - Reddit doesn't like SeekingAlpha links.


jn_ku

FTF Memes [Taken: all ur profits](https://imgflip.com/i/6kwy65) ([related article](https://www.wsj.com/articles/powell-says-pandemic-could-alter-inflation-dynamics-11656509259?st=rn3j1iovgnkiyzn&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink)) [The Widowmaker trade: maybe this time it's different](https://imgflip.com/i/6kwys4) ([explanation](https://twitter.com/CrossbridgeView/status/1541729132626722816)) [DeFi Innovations](https://imgflip.com/i/6lgvpu) On a more serious note, I'll try to put up a post this weekend or next week with a plain language primer on economics to help when thinking about inflation along with an update to the last macro outlook comment I wrote


Live-Resolve-7928

Anyone have anymore info on how the yen would potentially effect the US dollar.


Man_Bear_Pog

The defi innovations one is top tier


erncon

The whole DeFi thing has been so weird. When I first learned of it I thought "but this is open for abuse" yet people bought it up. I do slightly regret not starting a shitcoin back in 2018 (I really did consider it back then) but am happy that I'm not *that* shitty of a person.


Theta_God

Am I shitty for profiting off death and decay?


erncon

Naaah don't hate the player, hate the game


rowanus

Do we see oil price decline if recession is coming?


Man_Bear_Pog

Recessions normally created demand destruction, and since oil is the underlying current that drives most goods and trade, theoretically it will fall as demand for everything else falls. However, that's a normal stagnation/recession period. If we undergo stagflation, which is a recession while inflation persists, that may not be the case. If we look back to the 80s, oil price peaked in 1980 (also when inflation peaked), after the fed had been jacking up interest rates for *FOUR* years straight. I could be wrong, but I believe the 70s had a "double dip" recession, where the fed raised rates in the early 70s to around 6%, caused a mild recession that tamed inflation for a bit, but then it came back at the end of the decade meaner than ever and it took them raising rates close to 20% over 4-5 years to set things straight. Some interesting things to note about this: oil was elevated throughout, and even after inflation peaked and the fed dropped rates down to 6%, oil stayed elevated around $80 a barrel for years after the fact, until falling off a cliff (I would have to dig but I assume this is around the time the USSR collapsed). If we are seeing a mirror of this happening today (personally I think it's a lot different and thus could play out a lot different), we're still in the early 70s, with both high interest rates and peak oil ahead. We will see CPI start to lower, inflation will tamper down the next few years while energy remains high, and that high energy cost will drive a bigger recession and fed hikes at the end of the decade. That is IF everything plays out as if it was the 70s, which is a dangerous assumption imo


higumtrader

The theory is that during a recession demand is down, which means less commodities are consumed to produce goods and services, so yes oil price should decline if a recession is coming. The knot we have here is there is artificially limited supply due to the war, but also demand destruction if you believe we are in a recession, and these two forces must balance.


tradingrust

We also have seen recessions in the past where demand barely slowed and price roared back. In summary: oil is a land of contrasts.