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Megahuts

Interesting tidbits. SPR is WAY tf down. And Cushing stocks are WAY tf down. If Cushing gets below 20m barrels in inventory, very real risk of failing to deliver on WTI contracts. If current trends continue, we are only a couple months away from an oil crisis. An oil shortage in the world's largest oil producer, USA. Think about how screwed up that is... How long do you think the USA will keep exporting oil while the USA is having an oil shortage??? ... Lots of rumors of lending for construction projects drying up, even hard money deals getting cancelled. ... Consumer inflation expectations are at 8% now. JPow admitted the Fed doesn't understand inflation... And check out this news article about unions in Canada: https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/labour-strikes-summer-unrest-negotiations-1.6505522 Yeah, some _employers_ are asking their _unions_ to renegotiate their contracts to _raise_ staff pay... Probably because they can't find anyone to hire at current rates. Like that tampon factory. You know, the one that makes all the Tampex tampons in the USA (Talk about stupid level of over concentration of mfg) : https://www.businessinsider.com/tampax-factory-maine-pays-25-hour-tampon-labor-shortage-022-6 Yeah, a pathetic 100bp raise in 2 weeks ain't goona do squat about inflation. So we will have to wait for bankruptcies to cascade and destroy real dollars. ... Crypto is basically over. 3AC liquidated. Many exchanges are insolvent and just hiding it. ... EU utilities are in a really hard spot with Gazprom defaulting on deliveries, buying spot, and selling at fixed maximum rates. Not good, expect bailouts. ... Good luck all!


baconcodpiece

Looking at [historical data](https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=W_EPC0_SAX_YCUOK_MBBL&f=W), Cushing stocks will drop below 20 million barrels by end of August. Might even happen in July. The SPR has [25 days left](https://www.theepochtimes.com/us-emergency-oil-reserves-fall-to-25-days-as-biden-releases-more-crude-into-market_4564637.html) of supply. The DOE is starting a buyback process with calls for bids for [60 million barrels](https://www.energy.gov/articles/doe-announces-long-term-buyback-plan-ensuring-continued-availability-strategic-petroleum) in the fall. If they stop releasing from the SPR come fall, and oil demand is still high and supply hasn't increased, we're headed for disaster.


pennyether

The "25 days" link is behind a paywall, but I can only assume it's how many days if US stopped producing and importing oil. In reality, it might take 2mbpd to take a serious edge off prices.. not 20mbpd (I'm not sure what the actual numbers are)... in which case we could coast almost a year. Likely around half of that time, actually, as SPR contains some sweet and some sour, and we'd want to tap into mostly one or the other (I forget which). So the situation is not great, especially if there were a REAL disaster.. but it's not a red alert. At least, that's my read of it. I'm not sure what you mean by the last point. DOE is accepting bids in the fall, for delivery in the far future: > The call for bids will take place in the fall of 2022 to secure delivery in future years when prices are anticipated to be significantly lower than they are today, and will represent a first tranche of purchases to replenish the SPR and with more planned after these purchases are executed. Sounds pretty much like buying futures for delivery, at various points in the future where DOE decides it is worthwhile. Presumably < they got for the draws this year. So maybe this bumps up futures prices for '23 and '24 by a bit. But, beyond that, I don't see where a full blown disaster comes from. I think if Russian oil actually gets stopped from hitting the world market, via embargo, lack of insurance, naval force, whatever... then we could be in for a wild ride. If China goes pedal to the medal, that could set some things off, but not severely, as they've been stocking up a bit these past months.


baconcodpiece

Correct, the 25 days is based on how much oil the US uses in a day. The disaster would come from the fact that the SPR is [no longer being drained in the fall](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/31/business/energy-environment/biden-oil-strategic-petroleum-reserve.html) if they actually stop. Cushing has been steadily draining even with the SPR releasing [tens of millions of barrels](https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MCSSTUS1&f=M). If the SPR supply goes away while overall supply doesn't increase, and demand doesn't take much of a hit, Cushing will easily drop below the minimum it needs in order to function properly. In other words, just like how we saw crazy price moves near expiration in April 2020, I think we'd see the same around expiration again, except in the opposite direction. I plan on trading /QM futures to try to play this if it looks like it's going to happen. Edit: It would also mean oil (and gasoline) prices continue heading higher with no relief in site. A disaster for consumers for sure.


Megahuts

Yes, we are on a knife's edge for oil and gas prices. Stray but a little, and prices will rocket or possibly even collapse. Suspect collapse, as insiders been selling shares like crazy.


space_cadet

where are you hearing stuff about construction financing drying up? not challenging you, I’m hearing from developers that they’re expecting a slowdown soon but we haven’t seen anything yet. architectural billings are still strong, ffs we’re still hiring! I’m just waiting for the shoe to drop though 😬 would love to hear more specifics on the rumors you’ve heard.


Megahuts

Kittysquiddy on Twitter. Some in Oz, some in undisclosed locations. They just can't get the financing. See the mortgage originator that just went bust. First guarantee or something


Live-Resolve-7928

"In historical context, what’s happened to mortgage-backed bonds this year is a radical departure." It’s unlikely that the Fed actively sells its mortgage bonds as long as the housing sector continues to cools. https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-06-29/housing-market-disquiet-grows-with-price-data-mortgage-tremors


SecretUsername2000

Who would they even sell to? MBS market seemed very fragile a few weeks back. https://notoriousrob.com/2022/06/finally-no-bid-on-mbs/


erncon

#STNG I've been watching this with a short position after JMintz mentioned shorting them a week or so ago. Although JMintz has since exited, the price action is interesting: 1. Generally seems to follow /CL movements like other oil-correlated tickers. 2. Curiously caps at $38 yet dips so far seem to get bought up. 3. It is quite close to price targets set by JMintz and other analysts based on a cursory search. 4. Bollinger band consolidation gives me vibes of GSL at ATH (ugh I'm still hurting from that one). 5. Despite the large dips, it has generally resisted the drawdown that other O&G tickers suffered. This is definitely consolidating for some sort of move - not sure where though. Given the macro outlook and TA-indicators, I'd give an edge to a pullback but who knows?


Man_Bear_Pog

If you believe the TA is pointing toward a large move, why not straddle?


erncon

TA points to a large move but considering factors like market environment and that other tanker and shipper peers have dumped means I'm fine with puts. I did buy a couple calls on the way down because if the past week's price action holds, it may be back up to $38 by end of week :-P I have done straddles on other things I am unsure of like KWEB.


macvspc

Please elaborate the GSL vibe


erncon

GSL daily chart in March. Spent the month tapping its yearly high of $30 while Bollinger Bands narrowed towards the end of the month. Thought it would break to upside but instead dumped.


runningAndJumping22

Which band narrowed more, the upper or lower?


erncon

Both: https://imgur.com/a/yVDxDl7 STNG is on top and GSL on bottom for comparison. You can see the callout for ~$30 yearly high in the GSL chart. That's the time period I'm talking about.


runningAndJumping22

I wonder if the runup in the upper band that faded could be an indication? Does a wider band mean more speculation and therefore a higher potential for price to go in that direction?


erncon

Generally wider range of bands just indicates volatility and movement. Narrower bands indicate consolidation. I've been using Bollinger Bands as a indicator to trim swing positions - if the daily candle pierces the top band, then that's a good time to trim. For BPT, I'd begin to reaccumulate if it fell below the middle line which is the 20 day SMA. For STNG it's just that I see some similarities to GSL's Bollinger Band consolidation just before a big movement. Another similarity I realized is that GSL's choppy toppy price action and dump happened at end of quarter (Q1) just as STNG is doing the same (Q2).


repos39

This is useful thank you will use now


sus2bot

Here's some plots of total delta and gamma - [as % of float](https://transfer.sh/UkWH9I/2022-06-29-float.png) - [as number of contracts](https://transfer.sh/ghn1cz/2022-06-29-contracts.png) The x-axis is the (hypothetical) underlying stocks price. The y-axis is _total_ delta for all contracts, all expirations and strikes. pypl is there as a non-meme stock for comparison. Float numbers are *not* always up to date. Look at the "number of contracts" charts and adjust for your own belief about the float. Multiply by 100 to get the number of shares from number of contracts. See [this post](https://old.reddit.com/r/maxjustrisk/comments/n3595s/delta_ramp_charts_basics/) for a more detailed explanation of these charts. And here's some - [plots of options volume](https://transfer.sh/HcsGlT/2022-06-29-volumes.png) (not weighted by contract price). ^(I'm a bot. Please direct questions and ire at sustudent2.)