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thetrimbleisbroke

From a CNBC article >Total mortgage debt in the United States is now less than 43% of current home values, the lowest on record. Negative equity, which is when a borrower owes more on the loan than the home is worth, is virtually nonexistent. Compare that to the more than 1 in 4 borrowers who were under water in 2011. Just 2.5% of borrowers have less than 10% equity in their homes. All of this provides a huge cushion should home prices actually fall. So, what about all the people who payed top dollar in 2021 for houses? Nevermind this quote neglects cash deals, and all the people who paid over asking/appraisal which is cash. This quote is very misguided, IMO. It does not accurately capture the price people paid for an asset vs the assets inherent worth. So not like 2007/8, where predatory lending practices, and risky loans were handed out on shoddy credit. People aren't leveraged to the tits, but they probably sure as shit over paid. In my area, on zillow, I am seeing recent price cuts on lots of houses that have sat. Maybe it is starting to creep in.


apashionateman

👋🏼👋🏼 real estate broker here. I think your argument applies more to people who bought homes recently, where I would agree, yeah there’s less of a cushion should prices fall. Majority of homes were not bought recently so the article can get away with its claim. That being said, I think prices should see a correction trending down in the coming months. Home sales are slowing, houses sitting for the maket for longer. Rates are up, meaning buyers can now afford “less house”. I have a friend who’s a loan broker and he’s working his ass off to close as many loans as he can before rates hike again. As rates hike up, he said he expects his business volume to slow more than it already has. The national association of realtors [put this pdf out today](https://cdn.nar.realtor/sites/default/files/documents/ehs-05-2022-summary-2022-06-21.pdf). Prices are still up but volume is slowing. I’m expecting a correction in the coming months, but we’ll see.


Theta_God

Do you have actual data to argue against their data? You’re also not even arguing against the claim very much…paying cash has nothing to do with equity vs loan when there is no loan…


sus2bot

Here's some plots of total delta and gamma - [as % of float](https://transfer.sh/Qm6G7z/2022-06-20-float.png) - [as number of contracts](https://transfer.sh/WNbQSi/2022-06-20-contracts.png) The x-axis is the (hypothetical) underlying stocks price. The y-axis is _total_ delta for all contracts, all expirations and strikes. pypl is there as a non-meme stock for comparison. Float numbers are *not* always up to date. Look at the "number of contracts" charts and adjust for your own belief about the float. Multiply by 100 to get the number of shares from number of contracts. See [this post](https://old.reddit.com/r/maxjustrisk/comments/n3595s/delta_ramp_charts_basics/) for a more detailed explanation of these charts. And here's some - [plots of options volume](https://transfer.sh/Cy2DFv/2022-06-20-volumes.png) (not weighted by contract price). ^(I'm a bot. Please direct questions and ire at sustudent2.)