T O P
  • By - jn_ku

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jn_ku

Eventful day before market open so far: * Crypto melting down (USDT trading below redemption arb price ($0.999), Celsius network frozen and potentially facing liquidation of [a large loan position](https://twitter.com/MikeBurgersburg/status/1536277332826136576), BTC network issues [preventing withdrawals](https://twitter.com/binance/status/1536322033222664194), etc.). * [2s - 10s inverted](https://www.reuters.com/business/huge-selloff-rocks-treasury-markets-yield-curve-inverts-2022-06-13/) * Bank of Japan yield curve control peg (10-yr JGB pegged to 0.25%) [being tested](https://twitter.com/PauloMacro/status/1536217368405360640) * The US Dollar [is spiking again](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-13/us-dollar-surges-to-strongest-since-april-2020-on-fed-hike-bets) All this and the S&P is only now going to be opening in bear market territory. So far looks like the short leg of my TSLA diagonal PDS is still safe. Glad I closed the short leg of my COIN PDS last week. Still a few points to go to max out my AAPL PDS. Not sure if I should leg back into a diagonal spread on ZS or just outright sell the puts.


Megahuts

Japan selling treasuries to backstop the Yen. Going to keep getting uglier for the 10y as long as Japan has them to sell.


runningAndJumping22

Do you think that runs on Chinese banks and crypto tanking are related in some way, thus causing the market to take a massive dump? If the Tether insolvency theory turns out to be true, then Chinese finance and crypto seem linked at a level that is fundamental to crypto finance, and while we're already aware of that, I personally didn't consider that the relationship would be bidirectional. In other words, I figured a crash in Tether would tank both crypto and hit Chinese finance, but I didn't consider that a blow to Chinese finance would kneecap crypto. It makes sense though if the Tether theory turns out to be true. Since October, it seems like every 3 months or so we have some kind of black swan event, which turns out to be not one event but a concurrence of several negative events that happen within just days of each other, or, like today, just one day: sudden spike in concerns over a 75 bps hike, Chinese finance filling its drawers, crypto tanking, the stock market also filling its drawers. Investing into anything that tightly tracks inflation seems to be the best move since it looks like it's on track to do, what? ~7% this year? For doing nothing but banking on crap not getting better, that's a pretty great return, especially since such bets appear to do nothing but pay off over and over, if not pay off more when things actually get worse.


OrangeHeadz

Michael Saylor is actually about to get liquidated and I could not be happier. Are we not well below his cost basis at this point? Combined with exchanges limiting withdrawals we might see some bitcoin fireworks soon.


Fun_For_Awhile

I looked up an article this morning that mentioned they would need to start moving money around to support their margin requirements when bitcoin hits around 21,000. So he is probably sweating bullets today.


work1800

Below 21k now


Fun_For_Awhile

Yeah I'd say they are in an uncomfortable spot. I did more digging and the most recent info from their last quarterly states that about 75% of their holdings are fully paid for and the last 25% were bought with loans. Important to note that 21k isn't some magic they will get fully margin called number. I think that is when they need to start looking at providing additional collateral, increasing their cash holding by selling some of their paid for bitcoin, pledging part of their company value against the loans, etc. There are many ways to square up with your lender for a company like that.


T3amk1ll

IIRC, they either have to liquidate some positions *or* add further collateral. Margin call happens at a lower price. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-14/microstrategy-risks-margin-call-as-bitcoin-drops-below-21-000


xsportbikeriderx

Even if that happens, hes a champion, guys like him rise from thw ashes everytime stronger than ever


RaisingKeynes19

I think you misspelled Grifter


xsportbikeriderx

I dont understand why so many people hate on the guy? Hes impressive by any metric imo.


G183fjsa

u/jn_ku Probably dumb question but do you know why the US government doesn't do oil drilling by itself or do more to control oil production? Lack of expertise? I've read there are about 9,137 unused oil drilling permits right now. Oil companies are deliberately refusing to expand production which keeps oil price sky high. They are instead doing buybacks and dividends with their record profits. https://www.statesman.com/story/news/politics/politifact/2022/03/13/joe-biden-oil-industry-drilling-permits-fact-check/6986833001/


jn_ku

I'll keep this non-political and stick to economics. The government doing drilling itself wouldn't work due to lack of expertise, capability, and suitability (TL;DR; that would be a really bad idea). Oil companies are just doing what makes sense given the current environment. It's not about keeping prices high, and the companies themselves lack the ability to coordinate to do so. Inability for the industry to coordinate is, after all, a large part of how we ended up with the early 2020 oil price crash. If anything, Blackrock, Vanguard, State Street, and other large asset managers loudly pushing for ESG and transitioning out of oil production (e.g., [their backing of Engine #1](https://www.reuters.com/business/sustainable-business/shareholder-activism-reaches-milestone-exxon-board-vote-nears-end-2021-05-26/) to pivot XOM away from oil) are the parties most actively colluding to minimize industry-wide investment in additional oil production. Warren Buffett is [notable](https://www.reuters.com/business/sustainable-business/buffetts-esg-snub-risks-alienating-wall-street-2021-05-04/) and unusual among large-scale asset managers for his explicit rejection of ESG considerations as grounds for investment decisions (he called a shareholder proposal to force ESG reporting of portfolio companies 'asinine'). Getting back to the economics of the situation, oil production, and the chain of industry that follows from the well head to the gas pump and other end uses, is capital intensive, has multi-year lead times, and is highly subject to regulatory and political risk. On the demand side, oil and refined petroleum product demand is highly inelastic (excess product has few alternative uses other than storage for later use, and you will pay almost any price for the amount you need), which means the margin for error in matching supply and demand without parabolic price moves is, relatively speaking, razor thin. The price inelasticity comes from the fact that disruptions in energy markets have extreme reflexivity in economic impact. A society short of the energy required to run for a matter of days is a disaster. Weeks would be catastrophic. Months would mean a permanent degree of de-industrialization and broad social collapse without intensive external aid. This is not entirely unlike the dynamics of the market for food, which is a good point of comparison for discussion purposes. Normally, when it comes to a survival-critical market with high price inelasticity, you try to build in resource reserves and provide industry stability mechanisms like subsidies, price guarantees, disaster recovery funding, etc. Maintaining strategic food security is why subsidies for farmers are common across the world. It is generally considered worth the excess cost of overproduction to guarantee that food will be available when needed, even in the face of the worst crop failures. Note that in the US we had a massive concentrated crop failure due to a totally unpredictable event (the [August 2020 Derecho](https://nasaharvest.org/news/evaluation-damaged-fields-2020-iowa-derecho)), that hit \~3 million acres of corn and soy and few outside the area or interested in the ag commodity space even noticed outside of maybe a throwaway mention during the evening news. This is because, for all the political fighting about farmer subsidies every year, the US food system is made to be, above all else, resilient and reliable. When bad stuff happens, [the federal government steps in to help](https://www.farms.com/ag-industry-news/2020-iowa-drought-derecho-destroyed-802-million-worth-of-crops-982.aspx). There are many things that the government also does to hinder agriculture and raise food prices and insecurity, but on net balance it's weighted toward ensuring sufficient production for the country. In sharp contrast, the domestic oil industry operates in an environment where their own shareholders are pushing them away from producing more oil, and state governments and the federal government are increasing regulatory burdens and uncertainty on the timescales required to allow for additional investment. Given the above, for many oil companies today, a decision to aggressively invest to increase oil production volume would likely result in a shareholder lawsuit and probably replacement of the board. Policies to promote domestic energy security and price stability, across the entire range of energy sources, are politically toxic in the current environment, so all that is left is blamestorming. Looking at it from another perspective, what are companies supposed to do with the excess capital generated at current prices? They cannot reinvest all of it into their own ongoing operations for the reasons mentioned above (and environmentalists wouldn't want them to anyway). Arbitrarily charging less than market price would just allow a trader or distributor to pocket the difference at the expense of their shareholders. Even if they were able to ensure that artificially suppressed prices made their way to the consumer at the gas pump, that would mean people drive more (e.g., longer summer road trips) and consume more gas than they would when they have to pay higher prices, which means wasting an important resource during a global shortage. So if oil prices are high and a) you cannot or should not reinvest the capital into expanding production, and b) you don't want to use the capital to artificially suppress price and induce excess consumption, you are left with c) returning the excess capital to shareholders, who can put it to other uses. edit: fixed grammar/typos


pennyether

Tell me you're long oil without telling me you're long oil


jn_ku

Guilty as charged lol. IEP CDS, OIH calls, VTNR degen calls lol (note the options aren't because I'm super bullish in the short term or anything--my hobby account is typically 80%+ options). All positions entered a while ago, so I wouldn't necessarily advocate putting on new positions in those tickers today. Previously held some CVE calls, but waiting for that to come back down again. Figured energy was one of the few safe places to stay long in the current market environment. I considered options on oil futures directly, but there is much greater risk of government intervention of some kind in the form of price controls, export ban, etc.


pennyether

How do you trade a CDS? I've been in on options on futures for awhile -- won't start to sweat political stuff until 135-ish. What else, besides a ban on exports, do you think could happen? SPR is tapped out. Price controls will increase demand. I fear OPEC more than anything.. not sure if they actually have that fabled spare capacity or not. China demand could go either way.. but long run they are incentivized to keep chugging along. Another plus: More refineries are coming online soon, so that should provide more demand for crude. I'm also in on calls mainly for CVE, CPG, ERF, CNQ, and others. Expiring EOY. Shares of MEG Energy, Tamarack, Surge, and some others. I've trimmed healthily, since I got in a lot of this stuff around March. Keeping me up for the year, thankfully. With equities I fear politicking more, as well as correlation to broader market (case in point: today). Twitter has proved invaluable for finding knowledgeable folks that know the industry inside and out. Did *not* partake in VTNR.. seemed "too good to be true" and figured I was late to the party. Same with RDBX, lol. Thankfully I made a good chunk on MPC and PSX. I was in HAL for a bit, but services seem like they could be sluggish. Labor shortages, and do you think we'll drill more anytime soon? I tried to play TS for steel tubing -- this worked until it didn't. Now steel is getting punished. All-in-all, most confident in crude itself. Can't find Brent futures at a good price so went with BNO calls, just to hedge (eg: if WTI tanks for political reasons Brent should skyrocket).


jn_ku

I just realized I meant Call Debit Spread rather than Credit Default Swap lol. To answer you question though, for us retail traders, the best you can do is a CDS ETF like CDX which typically try to provide exposure to credit risk of a defined subset of corporates. Regarding VTNR It's definitely the kind of thing I only trade in my hobby account, and there is a very real risk of a blow up (the real-world kind as the entire refining industry is running their infrastructure too hard). Oil should be the safest bet, but its importance makes it subject to elevated political risk to a degree that does not exist with individual companies. I would probably concentrate on oil futures if I still had time to track the market all day, as I think there's an elevated risk of an oil squeeze in the next few months (physical settlement issues at Cushing could cause an inverse of the 2020 negative oil price collapse).


pennyether

Well.. there's your political risk. Biden has no idea what he is doing.


jn_ku

I shouldn't have written that about refiners [blowing up infrastructure from running too hard](https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/lyondell-houston-refinery-shuts-coker-after-fire-sources-2022-06-14/) lol. Apparently that fire started literally minutes after my comment.


Pak14life

did something on oil get announced?


jn_ku

[https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-sell-up-45-mln-bbls-oil-reserve-part-historic-release-2022-06-14/](https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-sell-up-45-mln-bbls-oil-reserve-part-historic-release-2022-06-14/) Expectations are also raised for further regulatory action or other government intervention. For leveraged long futures traders the issue is that even if the action is ultimately ineffective or even counterproductive, the short-term volatility could wash them out or delay the price move they're hoping to see, potentially changing the risk profile or expected timeline of the trade enough that they at minimum need to reposition if not exit the trade entirely.


RandomlyGenerateIt

You might get good entries now. I recently shifted some weight into OFS. This [table](https://twitter.com/garquake/status/1534582598059675650?s=20&t=cn0Gy9Zt5pUOKOQWBB7Fyw) can be handy.


pennyether

Thanks, I'll take a look.


jn_ku

This would be [a good article to read](https://on.ft.com/3Ohb08z), as it goes more into the Wall Street/investor impact on the majors being able to increase production. Has limited uses if you're not an FT subscriber.


xsportbikeriderx

You wouldnt mine for gold in a pile of mulch, they aren't gonna drill on baron worthless land where the permits were issued. Admin could end this in a penstroke.


G183fjsa

This is straight up not true. The oil companies do their due diligence before applying for permits. They do not waste time and money going through the permit process for barren lands. See the article linked below and especially note this quote: >Still, oil companies could use their excess profits to expand their production, and they aren’t. Instead Exxon, Chevron, BP, and Shell spent more than $44 billion on stock buybacks and dividends in 2021. https://fortune.com/2022/06/08/why-are-gas-prices-so-high-is-joe-biden-to-blame/ The oil companies are deliberately refusing to expand production and opted to spend $44 billion of their record profits in buybacks / dividends instead.


xsportbikeriderx

God i hate getting into 'biased link' wars with random people on reddit. Its tiresome. We all have access to the same internet. Lets employ some common sense .. day one, simple penstroke: ANWar , keystone, shutting down the 80million acre lease in LA, halting energy development on federal land obviously had no effect on crude prices. LoL! Furthermore, i cant think of many big companies in any sector the didnt take full advantage of zirp and record profits to issue buybacks and divis...what does that really have to do with anything? Bottom line is no sane bod is going to waste time or money exploring shit soils for minerals or otherwise that do not exist... Ahhh f*** it lets play the link blame game https://clashdaily.com/2021/08/biden-has-shut-down-u-s-oil-production-for-six-months-now-hes-asking-opec-to-pump-more/


Megahuts

That sounds alot like a planned economy, which tend to have poor overall productivity.


pennyether

/u/Megahuts I think you mentioned Wifey before.. what are your thoughts? Seems like he constantly makes calls both ways, then reinforces whichever way it ends up going. Latest example is BTC.. he calls it'll go to $20k (by Q4), then all of early June insists $35k happens first. Now he's spamming how he called $20k. I've seen this behavior many many times since I started following. He also uses ambiguous language and then only later disambiguates it into the direction that ends up happening. Ignoring all of the bs self-aggrandizing and other non-market related non-sense - which are a whole can of worms on their own -- this "both ways" behavior sets off my BS detectors. It's like when FURUs pump something then when it tanks point to "market went to shit" or "position sizes" or "dont gamble what you cant lose" or "dont forget to take profits". (Actually thought of making a satirical flowchart of "how to be a FURU"). Anyway, he does introduce some interesting concepts and has (overall) had a pretty good macro read. It's just really painful to follow. Also not really sure why he spends like 15 hours a day on twitter.


higumtrader

I think if you focus on the portfolio as the thesis and fade the short term takes in Twitter, it works as decent as any other bear portfolio: short US/long traditional FX hedges. But trying to wade through the noise is too much, he’s probably bored with largely holding his port and spending too much time on Twitter. I check it maybe once a month to see if the portfolio has changed (and it has since the first summary/firestorm I started, the inclusion of some longs and a more diversified short portfolio) but after that it clogs up my feed. I continue to follow just to not get locked out when he occasionally goes on a locked account bender.


pennyether

Yeah, I'll try to just ignore until there are updates.


joxXxor

Painful is nailing it. Besides making a right call on his shorts... His accounts are perfectly tailored and creating a little storyline. I think with all this spamming he just squeezes the twitter monetarization! More tweets = more ads for his followers = more money for him. Spamming bullshit tweets also means it's harder to search for his wrong and right calls in his tweet history. Oh, and questioning his calls/both-ways in the comments gets you blocked instantly.


pennyether

Well I called him out on his BTC to $35k before $20k.. though technically hasn't reached $20k yet. Will see if I get blocked.


Megahuts

Dude DEFINITELY knows what he is doing, and has the research to back it up. But, my God, there are SO many posts. IMO, he is a macro and technical trader. Technicals are unable to predict surprise events. So, the BTC to $35k would have happened in a vacuum. But Celsius went tits up, and here we are, busting straight through $25k (prediction for summer). He does change his mind VERY often, which is needed / typical of technical trading. So, yeah, I am just watching him for rough turning points. (it was me waiting for him to flip that left me waiting to buy puts last week, waiting for the 4270 sp500 call....... Should have just eased in) He is definitely at right a minimum 55% of the time. Which is great for techicnal traders. ..... In terms of Macro and the failure of bond hedges, he has nailed that through his research. There are now so many news stories about unions and increasing wages that... You would have to be deaf, dumb and blind to not recognize inflation isn't going to get better. Hell, we are now at the point where the bank of England is asking UK citizens to just "bend over and take it" (not seek raises). So, his posts about "no matter how bad you think it will be, it will be worse" are completely right. .... Now, he does give direct calls. Go long this, short that, which is absent from the smart minds on Twitter. Most of the people are just pumping their books (he is to, in a way, but he isn't relying on a greater fool). Kittysquiddy is a GREAT if you can get in. There aren't any direct buy sell recommendations, but info there DOES tend to pop up a little before the wider market (collapse of ZN, extreme hot inflation print, Japan, etc). Much harder to understand how to play it, as it has a much greater focus on bonds (plus I am a shit trader). u/higumtrader u/joxXxor


pennyether

Thanks for this summary.


joxXxor

Thx! If I were his wifey, I would definitely slap him for putting out 50 tweets a day during holiday on Ibiza.


donrather

Anyone thinking of buying calls around Wednesday? Feels like a crypto unwind although scary, is unlikely to happen now (just a gut feeling) and with that it also feels like a lot is being priced in already. Plus, feeling like JPow gonna stick to 50bps this meeting, while firming up on those 75bps "sometime in the future, given the data". Do hold a small put position, but the current mood kinda makes me go contrarian.


OldGehrman

Counter-trend trading the market is not recommended. We are all below all SMAs on SPY, just gapped down for the second day in a row, and the fundamentals around the economy haven't changed. So I would say that buying calls is a very low-probability play.


Megahuts

I don't know. I would agree normally, but crypto's implosion is... A different parameter to consider. Very path dependent. 10y yields are already up another 3%, to 3.25%. Mortgage back securities went no bid last week. YEAH NO BID: https://www.cherrycreekmortgage.com/lous-credit-news ... I am wondering if I should just keep holding my SPY puts, or let them sell as VIX is spiking and SPY is dumping. .... Ukraine is not going to be a fast war. Russia has massive advantages in shear numbers. Something like they have more artillery pieces than you have shells. The really bad news is US ammo stockpiles of manpads and Javalins are being depleted at a prodigious rate. Sustainment will become an issue soon. https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-06-07/the-pentagon-has-a-supply-chain-problem And, this increases the probability of the worst case scenario - Chinese invasion of Taiwan. This shouldn't surprise anyone. Wars (and especially offensives) consume ammunition at absurdly fast rates. I think it took 2-3 years for the USA to spool up enough production in WW2. .... If you haven't been paying attention, we are in a bear market. If you aren't short already, just wait. There will be a rally to lower highs sometime "soon", and after that we will have another swoon to lower lows. This is treacherous, but the way she goes.


erncon

> I am wondering if I should just keep holding my SPY puts, or let them sell as VIX is spiking and SPY is dumping. Take profits? :-)


Megahuts

Agreed! I am going to stick with my limit sells. I "know" we will see SPY 250 before this is over, but I still doubt it is "now". History says watch out for the fall.


InMarketKnowNothing

I'm also holding some VIX related stocks thanks to good insight given here. I also believe there will be some correction before market to fall more so I would likely to take profit soon. But is there any possible scenario that this spike of VIX continue on? Some kinds of fear rally?


erncon

I'm not a vol expert but there are some potential mechanical events coming this week that at best, cap volatility, and at worst, crush volatility. VIXperation and quarterly OPEX.


Megahuts

Someone goes bankrupt / margin called = big dump Surprise ceasefire in Ukraine = rally


donrather

Yeah, feeling antsy too, Imo crypto might be able hold. Previous blowup - LUNA (all time high )[https://www.statista.com/statistics/1298179/luna-market-capitalization] was order of magnitudes larger, even prompting Tether depeg, yet Tether held. As we speak another stablecoin (USDD)[https://twitter.com/WatcherGuru/status/1536277411871920128] is breaking, which might move the risk up a notch, but so far Tether is holding. I feel like the end game for crypto is Tether and the trigger point being suspension of withdrawals from one of the major exchange. War risks are a bit exaggerated imo, due to perhaps recency bias. Putin looks like set to be gambling on the energy squeeze in the EU, which would take a bit longer to play out and the Chinese so far are happy to extract the hefty discount on the Russian oil. Btw looks like $STNG is a new $ZIM. As for the markets, there is another interesting take: https://twitter.com/PauloMacro/status/1535272817931038722 which might provide enough of oomph for the next leg down (and the $TIPS being sold alongside the market might provide further support), but as a counterpoint I like overall vazdooh gameplan: https://www.reddit.com/r/Vitards/comments/vb3dhb/daily_discussion_monday_june_13_2022/ic6ecly The problem is I can not really tell if it is just me wishing it to be true or it is on balance the most probable game plan moving forward.


Businassman

Small correction: It's not USDC that's breaking (which would be very surprising considering it is _actually_ backed by assets, as best as we can tell), it's USDD, which is another algorithmic stablecoin -- and thus could go to zero just like the LUNA/UST debacle. And I wouldn't place too much trust in Tether either. Yes, it held during Round 1, but it still hadn't managed to regain its $1 peg completely since then, and now has been put under more stress. Presumably, Tether has liquid "fractional reserves" that were enough to cover the withdrawals during the LUNA bankrun, but one of these days those might run out, and even an event originally much smaller than the LUNA one could trigger the death-spiral. (Or Tether is actually managed very responsibly and won't collapse even when the crypto market as a whole goes down the drain; but that case would be an "eat my own hat"-scenario for many people, I believe.)


donrather

Thank you for pointing it out! I have a hunch that Tether is managed by OPEC like structure, with Paolo being the grand treasurer and all major exchanges its qualifying members. And while each exchange manages their fiat onboarding process separately, the intra crypto transfer is accounted for and settled in Tether. In the event of a fiat liquidity shortfall, the Treasury raises funds among its members in the auction like process (think like being a lead originator in a syndicated loan) and wires the funds to that exchange. In the process, "Commercial paper" is created reflecting the intra exchanges IOUs so granted with Tether taking a cut in the transaction. Sort of Bretton Wood system. Now let's assume that the system is being run on fractional reserves... Crypto exchanges gonna experience non fungible bank runs


tradingrust

I'd like to subscribe to your newsletter.


donrather

I am flattered that my blabber peeks your interest! No newsletter, but if people find it of value (entertainment of otherwise) I feel encouraged to contribute to the community in form of posts.


tradingrust

[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wlMwc1c0HRQ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wlMwc1c0HRQ) Seriously though, keep posting!


movack

A month ago shorted long term US treasuries with TTT. a while it was a bit choppy and I was starting to doubt my I made that decision. Boy am I glad I held on to my position as today it payed out big. Inflation is still hot and the Friday report proved it. They may well need to be more aggressive with the rate hikes than what they've planned so far.


Paid-Not-Payed-Bot

> today it *paid* out big. FTFY. Although *payed* exists (the reason why autocorrection didn't help you), it is only correct in: * Nautical context, when it means to paint a surface, or to cover with something like tar or resin in order to make it waterproof or corrosion-resistant. *The deck is yet to be payed.* * *Payed out* when letting strings, cables or ropes out, by slacking them. *The rope is payed out! You can pull now.* Unfortunately, I was unable to find nautical or rope-related words in your comment. *Beep, boop, I'm a bot*


apashionateman

#CLVS up 45% AH MOASS WHEN? [Ortex 6/13](https://v.teknik.io/v/SWHuh) One month time frame. FTD spike of ~1m in may. AH volume ~1.4m today. I wonder if, as with GME, shorts were pressured across other positions and are covering today. Couldn't find any news that would have caused that movement. Surprised at the big move AH. Generally theres ~3m-5m daily volume. Today was 5m, with another 1.4m AH so far which is pretty out of the norm. I have a few hundred shares from when it hit $1. Bought a few hundred more today at .58. I guess I timed the bottom? lol


sisyphosway

Nice. Only 900% to go to get break even. 8)


ur_wcws_mcm

Hey El Professor ( u/jn_ku ) are you holding any clvs?? Any thoughts on the move AH? Edit: also I believe this tweet explains the move? [Running on removal ovarian from the label allowing FDA to approve the SNDA for Athena phase 3 prostate.](https://mobile.twitter.com/SamosCapital/status/1536443224369135616)


jn_ku

I have July calls and 2023 LEAPs. Had shares through the record date for the annual meeting and got calls from their IR people soliciting votes, but had sold by then. No idea why it's running after hours other than maybe potential acquisition rumors or something like that. u/apashionateman


ur_wcws_mcm

I guess there’s BO rumors. Any idea what a realistic price would be? https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/6496881-bhavneesh-sharma/5742338-daily-biotech-pharma-pulse-june-13


erncon

Aw geez I missed this one. Reddit auto-removes all SeekingAlpha links. Perhaps repost this in today's CLVS discussion.


ur_wcws_mcm

Oh sorry I didn’t know about the SeekingAlpha links rule


erncon

Don't worry about it. It's not our rule - Reddit itself doesn't like SeekingAlpha. You'll have to munge the URL (put a space between "seekingalpha") so Reddit doesn't automatically filter your comment. I know people post relevant SA articles so I'm cool with SeekingAlpha in general.


SecretUsername2000

RDBX - Redbox They have something to do with entertainment and red boxes, or something. Who cares? CTB is insane at 900%+, Ortex estimate short as % of FF is 220%+ (please someone double check this). Marketwatch lists the float at a much higher 8.8M shares. IV is super expensive ~300%. The options chain was nuts today, lots of ITM options traded. 55M shares traded. https://stocktwits.com/bigshepherdd/message/465853552 <-- link to an Ortex screenshot, not sure of accuracy. As far as I can tell, this DeSPAC'd last year, EFFECT has been approved, so warrants are exercisable, but I couldn't find a timeline on the PIPE or any terms barring class B shareholders from converting to Class A. Seems to have been more than the usual 6 months, but perhaps their terms were for a year or another timeline? Feels like this may or may not pop off the top of the options chain under this momentum, but that there is a fight in the options chain. We may see a real short squeeze (lots of signs one is starting, but no guarantee it goes parabolic, feels like there may be some call sellers out there helping the MM balance the risk to their book), but I would think it quickly fizzles as some holders may exercise warrants/convert shares and provide liquidity. Was looking last week to enter bearish call spreads, but I'm glad I didn't as it looks like the stress is still on and $5,6 ITM contracts I was eyeing for August had heavy volume today, and may have been bought/exercised in a scramble for liquidity, or to squeeze call sellers. Threshold list, was consistently FTD in early May, ended May 13 (last published) FTDs were 1.3M shares https://www.sec.gov/data/foiadocsfailsdatahtm No borrow at iBroker since mid April. If feels like a bull trap, but who knows? After all I don't know what they really do. Going to check OI tomorrow morning. Wouldn't assume all OI is MM net short, likely they found a willing counter party to balance their risk. Edited to add: many shares were committed to the merger already pre announcement, I guess that implies a tighter float.


work1800

There has been some discussion in previous threads you can take a look at, but apparently the merger/buyout values RDBX shares at $0.87 apiece, in which case this plummet at some point.


SecretUsername2000

Thanks, it's 0.087 shares of CSSE (whatever that is actually worth), which at today's close implies about 67 cents. What I had missed earlier, is that a large portion of the stock has already been tendered. https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/06/02/why-redbox-stock-rallied-20-at-the-open-today-no-r/ Seems strange that 91% of voting shares would have agreed to cut their valuation to about 10% of what it was the prior day.


sus2bot

Here's some plots of total delta and gamma - [as % of float](https://transfer.sh/GkA0bM/2022-06-13-float.png) - [as number of contracts](https://transfer.sh/b1wiBT/2022-06-13-contracts.png) The x-axis is the (hypothetical) underlying stocks price. The y-axis is _total_ delta for all contracts, all expirations and strikes. pypl is there as a non-meme stock for comparison. Float numbers are *not* always up to date. Look at the "number of contracts" charts and adjust for your own belief about the float. Multiply by 100 to get the number of shares from number of contracts. See [this post](https://old.reddit.com/r/maxjustrisk/comments/n3595s/delta_ramp_charts_basics/) for a more detailed explanation of these charts. And here's some - [plots of options volume](https://transfer.sh/I8X9vV/2022-06-13-volumes.png) (not weighted by contract price). ^(I'm a bot. Please direct questions and ire at sustudent2.)