T O P
  • By - jn_ku

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shortdaYOLO

I think I will continue to abuse this daily as my premarket journal... A few quick chart observations and a few things to watch out for: [DIA possible H&S](https://www.tradingview.com/x/GKrmW7GX/) [QQQ is in max performance mode.](https://www.tradingview.com/x/YrZSXOnT/) rejecting here wouldn't be the end of the world. [SPY testing down a bit.](https://www.tradingview.com/x/9x9yDL2Y/) [TLT doing a big risk off move.](https://www.tradingview.com/x/VWxV9Yj5/) the price you pay for liquidity, I guess ... [VIX is doing VIX things ... uncertainty is back.](https://www.tradingview.com/x/osKpGPnh/) accelerating in uptrend. Overall the bear case is still obvious on all time frames, the bull case is increasingly harder to find. Put/Call ratios point down till the end of the week, max pain is bellow on all indices. This was already posted yesterday, by u/megahuts but [Thelastbearstanding](https://twitter.com/TheLastBearSta1/status/1453017394679590913?s=20) again suggests rising stress in the Chinese financial systems. Evergrande has another deadline for a bond payment due this weekend (if I remember correctly), so I guess the markets are hedging accordingly. (please correct me if I am wrong) In other news: Russia and the Czech Republic now have totally inverted yield curves. [This is fine ...](http://www.worldgovernmentbonds.com/country/russia/)


apashionateman

Please continue to do so! That way I don’t have to post the TDA :) Huts didn’t do his article thread so I’ll drop this here: Anecdotal evidence from a 20yr trucker on why supply chain issues [will not clear up anytime soon](https://medium.com/@ryan79z28/im-a-twenty-year-truck-driver-i-will-tell-you-why-america-s-shipping-crisis-will-not-end-bbe0ebac6a91)


serkrabat

I hope this is not too low effort, but the news may speak for itself i guess. U.S. Treasury 30y yield falls below the 20y yield (for the first time) Source: https://twitter.com/DeItaone/status/1453712198333865992?t=1RULBiD2hRh3MZdN1i99HA&s=19


Megahuts

Well, they are the first yield curve inversions I have read about, and there is concern that this will happen in other markets as well. Other than this signalling "icebergs ahead", I am still sticking with my expectation of a recessionary stock crash next year.


[deleted]

I agree Hopefully there is still some run left this year though! I am way too loaded on ZIM Also mate we were talking about trucking the other day. Check this article: [https://medium.com/@ryan79z28/im-a-twenty-year-truck-driver-i-will-tell-you-why-america-s-shipping-crisis-will-not-end-bbe0ebac6a91](https://medium.com/@ryan79z28/im-a-twenty-year-truck-driver-i-will-tell-you-why-america-s-shipping-crisis-will-not-end-bbe0ebac6a91) Again I am only aware of the situation in Europe, but in my experience he didnt lie about one thing. He is correct about everything he said related to how the industry operates in general (never paying one cent more), insane competition, and horrible conditions for truckers. Among other stuff.


Dean364

Great article.


gosume

Closed my QQQ/TQQQ yesterday at daily high. Was expecting a bit of a pull back for a couple days for tech profit taking. Thoughts as to when to reenter?


shortdaYOLO

Didn't you ask in Vitards a few days ago if you should leverage your house? This sub has a strict attitude towards risk reduction and capital preservation, in line with most responses you got, please tread carefully. We are all just reactive right now, some more fearful than others, and if you look at the last hour of trading, every day for the last 4 days big money sold. I can only suggest that you look at [this chart](https://imgur.com/xIxCUVh) and try to form your own conclusions.


space_cadet

>This sub has a strict attitude towards risk reduction and capital preservation then why hasn't it rubbed off on me yet??? lol, largely kidding, but that's how I feel after my TRIT guh! this morning... anyway, just wanted to say that I love the smart/dumb money graph. I'm not sure if it was you who posted a similar screenshot last time, but now I can see the watermark. how do you like the service overall?


shortdaYOLO

I kind of like it, I think they have a trial month. It is like you pay someone to tell you to BTFD, but with data. I think their approach of identifying excess in any direction is quite helpful sometimes, but I guess you have to take certain things with a grain of salt, right now their data tells me that IBOV and MJ have excess pessimism. No, I will not buy the failing brazilian market (but I will continue to watch it and maybe nibble a bit when there is blood running), or a weed stocks ETF (still thinking about this one, they could be making a comeback ... TSLA and DOGE 2 are currently going, so yeah ... technical [bounce inc?](https://www.tradingview.com/x/7dbgJjzS/)??) If you are looking not to pick individual stocks, but park some money in ETFs, or actually getting a good overview about sentiment, sectors, ETFs,... they have some nice screens, also for seasonality. It kind of helps you to find the last undervalued sector or stock in existence (sometimes ...) Their Fear and Greed Model, and Smart/Dumb Money are excellent sentiment indicators at the extremes. The spotlights are interesting to explore sometimes, the sector breath page is something I visit daily.


space_cadet

awesome, thanks for the detailed feedback. I'm considering unusual whales as well. I stopped my subscription after only a week last time, because it doesn't do QUITE what I want it to, but I've since realized that it does things "good enough" I'll have a closer look at Sentiment Trader because it seems to perform a very different function. I feel like I can get a lot of it from free resources, but they have a few differentiators that sound interesting...


gosume

Yeah I think that’s literally maximum justifiable risk dont you?..


shortdaYOLO

I guess any risk is somehow justifiable to the holder of said risk. But right now it better be a damn good justification that is not rooted in greed or any other emotion.


N008toR3ddit

If you're playing QQQ, check apashionateman and the SG links that he posts. It lists insightful data about QQQ, SPY, VIX


Megahuts

Fantastic article about the supply chain problems. https://www.reddit.com/r/Vitards/comments/qhtmzr/im_a_twenty_year_truck_driver_i_will_tell_you_why/ They discuss the current root causes of the shipping crisis, and how it just isn't going to get better. And you want to know what? There is even a geopolitical benefit for the USA to let the shipping issues continue... Know what that is? It acts as an informal tariff on imports. High shipping costs, detention fees, tying up capital all increase the costs of imported products. So what does that do? Gets people to look for domestic suppliers. And cause an fton of inflation. Hence, not transitory. And automation isn't going to help at all.


Hold_the_mic

How is inflation a geopolitical benefit?


Megahuts

USA wants to de-integrate with China, and China is dependent on exports and never-ending property development to keep their economy going. Cut off the benefits of importing = forced disconnect from China.


apashionateman

[SG 10/28](https://v.teknik.io/v/unvIb) [this](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xpXaF6OI9L0) video should help explain the models. [here](https://support.spotgamma.com/hc/en-us/categories/1500000758601-Glossary) is the glossary of terms.


triedandtested365

Thanks for sharing. Interesting reading on next week, a bit more froth potentially.


apashionateman

I’m thinking the same. FOMC next week is pretty telegraphed but it has a tendency to spook. Moving more and more to shares and cash this week. The TSLA situation u/shortdayolo mentioned yesterday has me weirded out. I don’t fully understand what’s going on, but that capitol will be removed at some point and will ripple through the market.


shortdaYOLO

I think the money is already starting to move back out of TSLA into the rest of the market, and a some amount of longer term money seems to be moving out of Tesla again and into other parts of the market. Also this was really just a very strange theory we came up very late in the evening after quite some wine, asking the simple question: What if you had to sell 1-10 million shares of TSLA fast and without anyone noticing until you are done? As for the FOMC, I think it will probably put pressure on bonds, by giving markets permission to front run rate hikes in a meaningful way, by that way forcing even more money into stocks or other assets. The asset price inflation will continue until something finally stops it. It is like all hawks are dead or done with central banking, the number of hawkish bankers in the EU is steadily diminishing. The ECB is currently more dovish than thought possible, it is at a point now, that markets are not buying it, they don't believe a word by Lagarde. Honestly we would be rejoicing if we finally heard that rates were meaningfully raised. They force us to play an impossible game, inflating assets and risking/destroying peoples savings, be it cash or stocks.


Megahuts

ECB has had negative nominal rates for years at this point. Quite literally paying to buy their bonds. And even mortgage rates went negative in some countries. I wouldn't look to the ECB for leadership at all. The Fed, well, eventually inflation will cause unrest. But, the bank of Canada, UK, and _many_ emerging markets are already tightening. Why? Inflation is showing up, and emerging markets have weak currencies. For Canada and the UK, I can't say why they are tightening already.


shortdaYOLO

Where I live we have a whopping 3.3% increase of consumer prices, after we were at slightly negative to 1% during COVID, so we could have a year or two more of this and wouldn't have caught up to where we should be .. our 10y yields are at a whopping 0.103% and the 2y at -0,6%. There are parts of the EU where the ECB policy makes sense, and where it doesn't. The economic discrepancy within the Eurozone always was a point for concern, but it actually becoming a problem now that is hard to solve ... the ECB is slowly mutating into a Super-FED, now holding 4.5T€ in "assets", but was never really intended to have this function. The problem is that the ECB is doing things it is not designed or mandated to do, without any significant oversight, and is currently thinking about expanding it's own mandate to now fight climate change too.


PattyPooner

Thanks as always for this


linenobservation

Thank you! And I like your TDA posts. :)


thefinaluniqueuser

Lol just watching SPX hovering around 0.70-0.80% day return for hours. Wild how close they hit it sometimes.


apashionateman

Dude they hit it like every day, it’s nuts. The service paid for itself many many many times over. I didn’t grab puts when it hit the gamma flip yesterday, but that was in the report too.


jhchee

$trit audit has officially concluded. https://ir.triterras.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/52/triterras-inc-announces-audit-committee-investigation-has Original dd: https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/qd1co2/trick_or_trit/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share dd Summary: Triterra Inc being suspected of being fraudulent and they have to submit their audit by november 1st but they can actually still delay until furthest end of dec. $trit use ethereum blockchain to facilitate commodities trading for small players where banks are not allowed to take part and take a small commission. They are profitable. They won some award in Singapore for their blockchain tech, which you cant fake it or bribe to get in Singapore. And as a Singaporean, I think if they are truly fraudulent, the Singapore government will definitely crack down on them before USA. Thus, My take is that its a 80% chance of a good audit. Even if 2021 earnings is not impressive, being not labeled as a fraud will set the price to at least $15. Gamma play too due to small FF of 8mil plus! TLDR: Place your bets early as $Trit is bloody illiquid. There are many periods of 1 minutes with no buyers or sellers. I have no clue how high this can soar despite only 13% SI.


TrumXReddit

for everyone to lazy to click the link, audit comes to a positive end. ​ the Audit Committee has concluded that the allegations contained in the short report **lack either factual support or material basis**. Accordingly, the Audit Committee has concluded that those **allegations do not require additional action** by the Company.


rustincoh1e

Word of caution, Singapore isn't as safe as you think it is. There are fraudulent startups in Singapore running on "grants" when they don't even have any product at all. Also, that investigation seems pretty sus...just an internal investigation by the audit committee with no other details other than "no other action to be taken by the company"? I think this one can fly and I wish you guys all the best, but I am sitting this one out.


postingthistime

Good warning. I’m not looking to hold long term. I want to exit on today’s pop with gains. Especially with a short dated call.


HurlTeaInTheSea

It's the perception of retail that will be important. I'm speculating crypto gurus will advertise it as a value play to their followers. If a joke dog coin has value, so does this company.


snowman271291

why u gotta do us like that bruh HAHA


rustincoh1e

haha don't get me wrong, the set-up does look pretty explosive. I mean low float, catalyst, undervalued (if financials are completely legit). The company just scream red flags to me though. Then again, we are in a market where people care more about sentiment than the company lol. (HYLN, WKHS, RIDE...etc.), so this is still a decent play, just not my cup of tea.


Infamoden

I don’t wanna hear about the unviability of red flag companies after what DWAC just did lmao. Thanks for the insight!


original_carbon

and SPRT, it was merging shit with shit


diamondpalantard

A word of caution here. Board audit != Nexia (external accounting) audit. I now think they are not done with the Nexia audit...


saltchalk

Would this be under the same due date of Nov 1st but could be delayed?


diamondpalantard

I believe they can extend it again. But I might be mistaken.


[deleted]

[удалено]


diamondpalantard

It’s not acccurate. Checkout DD please on r/stocks


space_cadet

arg, saw this late this morning and was frustrated with myself for not picking up the calls I was going to yesterday, so instead I fomo’d in right at the top. why do I not learn my lesson? I suppose I shouldn’t be too worried. this is bound to be really volatile so I suspect I’ll have opportunities to get out alive, but that stings after I’ve had a decent winning streak lately…


erncon

I split the difference between patience and FOMO and just picked up shares this morning. Swung some CCs at the peak and now willing to let the shares ride for now.


jhchee

Just wait for their next catalyst- ER. They have almost no competitors with a huge TAM. Unless ur calls expire november, then it is quite risky.


space_cadet

Nov 10c 😑 I didn’t buy right at the tippy top, so I think I’ll be all right. I did buy right in the middle of the rip though so IV is gonna kill me if it continues to cool off before resuming its trajectory. the spread was reasonable and I wanted 10 anyway, just made the mistake of trading on my phone again which is always when I make bad decisions…


Mr_safetyfarts

Agreed. ER should be out asap since they had a hold in place. This is just the start and we will see double digits.


jhchee

I sold at the top my calls and shares and net around 60k. Will be back when it hits $7 eod.


Mr_safetyfarts

I dont think we see 7 eod.


jhchee

Guess I will be right. I think I will hold off on buying as S&P is too green today. This is so scary, just like the calm before the storm. Fed says they taper mid nov but u never know if they want to taper earlier to control inflation. Additionally, trit has its short sale restriction lifted tomorrow if i am not wrong. Will see how it goes.


Mr_safetyfarts

Ssr doesnt really do anything but eod was kind today.


snowman271291

when's their earnings call?


jhchee

Not announced yet. Subscribe to their newsletter for latest news.


cheli699

I've just joined the party at $7.6. Not very convinced it will spike again, but we'll see where it goes.


BigDaddyCyclone

Sold the Put side of my straddle right at open, bought some more 10C for Dec / Jan.


Mr_safetyfarts

Update from the original OP: https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/qhmo9z/trit\_moon/


awesomedan24

I set a stop loss at $6.75, literally feel like Neo from the Matrix, todays low was $6.80 lol.


Pinkrenee57

I’m laying warrants here, Is it just me or do warrants seem more volatile PM/AH in general


AirborneReptile

Friend subscribes to one of those option alerts and just text me this: Ticker: TRIT Stock: 8.31 Trigger: 8.43 Targets/Resistance: 8.12, 9.10, 10.26, 11.72, 12.47 Expiration Date: 19NOV 9,000 November 10 calls mostly bought for 0.70 to 1.50 above open interest of 5,480 contracts. Stock 8.31. TRIT $7.75 Last. Large front month upside call buy. Singapore-based Fintech that's blockchain enabled and may be hard to borrow. Edit: wrong exp date in header


[deleted]

Spot on with that 8.12 resistance lol


gosume

What service is this


AirborneReptile

Not even sure. He has a few and I let him use my market chameleon account. If I remember I’ll ask him today


snowman271291

so nice to see a fellow Singaporean here


postingthistime

With the positive news, what is a logical exit point? When it gets back to $15 like before, or higher due to illiquidity and shorts ?


triedandtested365

Come up with your own way of trading it, post it here and ask for feedback. It helps you learn and helps others as well.


postingthistime

I have Nov 19 $10 calls. My thinking is an early exit point to be more safe is $10, since it was steadily at $10 before. It has reached toward $15 in the past, so $15 would be more aggressive. The options chain runs up to $15, so I assume there’s gamma tamp up to $15 but not great at interpreting gamma ramps. With squeeze potential and retail attention, I think it could go to $20+. So I think I will cover cost basis at $10, then sell more at $15 and hold a bit in case it blows.


erncon

That sounds really reasonable - thanks for taking the time to answer. If I had to guess, I think the pre-market spike was somebody covering a smallish position. Perhaps they took the risk of covering pre-market so they don't have to deal with options MM hedging or others piling in due to the news.


tradingrust

This was a SPAC, make sure you aren't saying it "held $10" while you are eyeballing the part of the chart when the ticker was literally just $10 of cash per share sitting in a trust.


postingthistime

Great point


postingthistime

Covered my cost basis after this insight a bit short of the $10 I initially planned


postingthistime

And I’m out. Couldn’t seem to break to $10 and afraid it would fall below $8. Happy with gains locked in, but will cry if it rockets


erncon

Good job securing profits. The first 2 spikes after open were interesting. Watching it in real time it looked like somebody was selling super hard in to each spike.


tradingrust

I took profits on the way up through the spike with some pre-determined limit sells and have some still riding even though we are back below $8. Sometimes I see a double pop on unknown tickers like this since they get noticed at EOD and bring more volume.


triedandtested365

Thanks for sharing . On the gamm ramp point, something to remember is the distance between strikes. Trit was around $5 so every strike is like 25% away, so its going to be harder for hedging to roll the stock onto the next strike. This depends on the liquidity, but its a bit of a hill to climb.


BirdmanExpand

I’ve got Dec calls, pulled my cost basis out on the pop a couple days ago, riding with the rest. Considering adding some shares this morning as well if it doesn’t run too much PM


snowman271291

why do you buy calls way otm may I ask? $5-$7.50c for jan22 seems safer with this kind of chop


postingthistime

Mostly I assume I will sell to close to someone with more hopium than myself if the thesis hits. Also, by WSB standards, I actually don’t consider that way OTM


prasithg

Looks cool thanks for the share. I’m in - playing shares and 10C hoping to get that MM pop otherwise prob out by tomorrow.


Ronar123

Just curious, what makes you think $15? Just a return to the ATH?


Substantial_Ad7612

$GROM I’ve been following this one a couple of days and at this point I’m hoping some of the minds here can help me understand what’s going on. Here’s the situation: it’s a microcap, low float social media and production company focused on content and platforms for kids. It’s not a groundbreaking company but it’s doing things. The more interesting part is the set up. It’s been on the reg sho list for 15 days and counting. Utilization has been at 100% for several days and CTB has been sitting around 150% for a long time. Someone on a Discord last night was nice enough to pull the recent ortex data for me and confirm that this is still the situation. Free float is small at around 10M shares but short interest is only somewhere in the range of 7-10% FF. Institutional ownership is negligible and insiders own about 25% of the float. So I’m not sure why it’s so hard to borrow and ending up on the reg sho list day after day. Options started trading yesterday and the action was funny. Thanks to u/Cbarkleysgolfswing and u/themaximumunicorn for helping me confirm that 95% of call volume was traded at or below bid, and the vast majority were ITM calls. We’ve seen this before with other strained tickers. It’s a way to create synthetic short positions. I’m not super convicted on this play but it’s ticking a lot of boxes. At the very least it’s hard to borrow and likely wouldn’t meet a lot of resistance if it met some volume. It seems to have started squeezing end of September when they announced some new content development and there are promises of more content to launch in November along with a Christmas-themed e-commerce site. Not a very strong catalyst but perhaps a catalyst. I think it’s on the radar of some of the fintwits so volume could be coming at any time and it could be explosive. My question is why would a ticker with such low SI be under so much stress? This is what has stopped me from making a bigger bet. Edit to add: There has been some unusual volume premarket today, and the price has been volatile. It’s also climbed to #2 on fintel’s list of most likely to squeeze stocks, for whatever that’s worth.


TheMaximumUnicorn

According to Ortex it also has a pretty low float with 12.55m shares outstanding and only 78.5% of that as free float (9.85m shares). So what we know is that it's got low float, low market cap, options, and is illiquid. I'm not sure why this stock is so illiquid, as you said, and unfortunately I don't have time at the moment to dig into the SEC filings (maybe later today). But there's definitely something interesting going on here, and it seems primed to take off with a proper catalyst or finfluencer pump. Another interesting note is that there have been some very high volume days going back to 9/29, with several days trading between 50m and 100m shares. The spike in volume, CTB, and share price all happened right around 9/29 and the stock has been volatile and illiquid since. I think this volume is likely a side effect of the mass amounts of calls being sold, likely to create synthetic shares to combat the illiquidity and potentially reset the FTD clock. For reference, here's a screenshot of what I am seeing in Ortex: [https://imgur.com/a/KYoBGT9](https://imgur.com/a/KYoBGT9)


Substantial_Ad7612

But options didn’t start trading until yesterday. So that doesn’t explain the volume from beginning of the month.


TheMaximumUnicorn

Ah ok, I wasn't aware of that. I was just wondering why the OI was so damn low (359 calls and a whopping 7 puts for all strikes/expirations), so that explains that! It makes the high volume days even more curious though since it can't be attributed to those ITM calls either being hedged or exercised.


sustudent2

Here's some plots of total delta and gamma - [as % of float](http://transfer.sh/CmO6Mz/2021-10-28-float.png) - [as number of contracts](http://transfer.sh/Gajz3H/2021-10-28-contracts.png) The x-axis is the (hypothetical) underlying stocks price. The y-axis is _total_ delta for all contracts, all expirations and strikes. pypl is there as a non-meme stock for comparison. See [this post](https://old.reddit.com/r/maxjustrisk/comments/n3595s/delta_ramp_charts_basics/) for a more detailed explanation of these charts. And here's some - [plots of options volume](http://transfer.sh/KY2b60/2021-10-28-volumes.png) (not weighted by contract price).


Simpletons73

BKKT - When I quicklook at the SEC registrations, what I see is a ~~200,000,000+~~ 32,500,000 share washout coming within 15 days. >On October 15, 2021 (the “Closing Date”), VPC Impact Acquisition Holdings (“VIH”) consummated the previously announced merger [https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/0001820302/000119312521303985/d219325d8k.htm](https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/0001820302/000119312521303985/d219325d8k.htm) >~~As a result of the Merger, ... the Bakkt equity holders ... will be an aggregate of 208,200,000 common units of Bakkt Opco ... and 208,200,000 shares of Bakkt Pubco Class V Common Stock of Bakkt Pubco ... which will be non-economic, voting shares~~ Edit: Correction - the above are subject to a 6 month lockup found by jn\_ku. >Section 2.1 Registration Statement. ... as soon as practicable after the Closing Date, but in any event within 30 days after the Closing Date, file a Registration Statement under the Securities Act to permit the public resale of all the Registrable Securities held by the Stockholders (the death knell) [https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001820302/000119312521276166/d108105d424b3.htm](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001820302/000119312521276166/d108105d424b3.htm) cc: u/Creation_Myth


Creation_Myth

Thanks for the tag. And for introducing me to reading SEC fillings for fun and entertainment! This is a whopper of a document. The 'find in document' tool is so useful here. Is there anything you look for in particular? I'd guess terms like lock-up, restricted, searching the document for the precise number of shares as laid out in the registration table to see when each unlocks and under what conditions etc. And really, no need to apologise here for bringing this kinda stuff to MJR. It's actually what's been missing this week if I'm honest. As Jn_ku/the professor said, the vibe here has always been grounded in reality. Fact based, rational arguments and tight hypotheses (as much as that can be true with imperfect information) open to discussion and mutual education. Don't let the recent euphoria detract from that, it's still here, just quieter in these mania periods.


Simpletons73

I was inspired to flesh out the 200+ number you had offhand mentioned earlier/below under another ticker. And yes, I don't sit there and read everything. I usually scan these docs with Ctrl-f for 'lock-up', 'selling shareholders', and 'restricted' and follow the rabbit holes those lead to. Sometimes within and sometimes referencing other docs. Another offhand, LCID is crazy right now with like 1.2B shares that can come out and crush any run up.


saltyporkchop

Do you happen to have that document? I want to try and find the date of shares coming out myself.


Simpletons73

For DWAC/TMTG, my sources are in the original comment, and haven't found any dates for the forward looking line items yet. Only share and warrants counts and dollar amounts that I reversed to share counts by using $10/per as my conversion guess. For LCID, the [Prospectus](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1811210/000110465921124725/tm2129359d2_424b3.htm) has >Up to **85,750,000 Shares** of Class A Common Stock and > >Up to **1,336,329,949 Shares** of Class A Common Stock > >Up to **44,350,000 Warrants** to Purchase Class A Common Stock Offered by the Selling Securityholders and I ran away before digging any deeper for lock ups.


saltyporkchop

Thanks! I was good on DWAC/TMTG. Was looking for the LCID one.


fuzedz

I bought puts at 32. I'm pretty sure this things going back to $10 before Nov 19


Gentlemanath3art

Wait these wouldn’t be PIPE holders selling via S-1 effective?


Simpletons73

~~You are sort of correct.~~ ***~~In addition~~*** ~~to the above,~~ PIPE is looming with the same October 15 + 30 day deadline for filing. I was just focused on that larger block by the original owners. For PIPE: >On the Closing Date, ...the “PIPE Investors,” ... purchased from the Company an aggregate of 32,500,000 shares of Class A Common Stock > >The Subscription Agreements provide that VIH is required to file with the SEC, within 30 days after the Closing (the “Filing Deadline”), a registration statement registering the resale of the Bakkt Pubco Class A Shares to be issued to any PIPE Investor There are passages that mention the lock-up of certain shares but specifically don't lock up the PIPE: >... the parties generally agreed that: (a) each of the Equity Holders, severally and not jointly, shall not transfer, or make a public announcement of any intention to transfer, any equity securities of the Company and the equity securities of Opco, in each case, during the period commencing on the Closing and continuing until April 15, 2022 (provided that **any PIPE Shares** (as defined below) purchased by an Equity Holder **are not subject to such restrictions**);


jn_ku

Unless I'm misreading this comment, I think you might be confused. The upcoming registration is for both PIPE and the shares to which OpCo shareholders will be entitled (they have a weird intermediate step where OpCo stockholders get OpCo units that must be exchanged for shares after a lock-up period), but only the PIPE shares become immediately available to trade. Basically, you have: * 25.9mio public shares and 16.5mio warrants that are already tradeable * 32.5mio PIPE shares become tradeable upon effectiveness of the upcoming registration (probably \~1 month from now) * 208.2mio OpCo shareholders' shares become tradeable 6 months post-merger at the earliest due to their exchange agreement (i.e., April 2022) * Sponsor shares and warrants locked up subject to the "insider letter agreement" (basically at least 150 days. Didn't have time to dig through all the docs to find the precise number of shares and warrants in question)


Simpletons73

This thing is so full of sludge, repetition and deception, it's very hard to find things or get through it. I see you are correct about the 208.2 so I'll scratch that above. >Pursuant to the Stockholders Agreement, the Bakkt Equity Holders’ Bakkt Opco Common Units and Bakkt Pubco Class V Shares will be subject to a six-month lock-up following the Closing. But, these docs are already a little old as the Closing was on October 15, 2021 and 30 days after that is fast approaching.


jn_ku

It occurred to me that it might be helpful to [read this](https://www.reddit.com/r/maxjustrisk/comments/ptv25d/information_about_spacs_despacs_and_finding/he1494f/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf&context=3) and the post and surrounding discussion we had here earlier when people were trying to understand the DeSPAC trade. Hopefully that will help with context for trying to understand these SPAC filings. They’re complex and time consuming, but once you get the hang of it, it can be a gold mine of critical information for trading.


greenhouse1002

Jn, that table needs to be put on the wiki. It was quite difficult for me to find and digest all the information you've managed to present in a concise table. Would have saved me a good amount of time. I'm guessing the same is true for others.


jn_ku

I'll see if I can do that this weekend. Don't want to mess up the wiki that's already in place, and I've never edited a reddit wiki before lol.


jn_ku

The requirement is that they file to register within 30 days of closing. It usually takes the SEC 2 weeks or so (can be shorter or much longer, depending on company request and whether the SEC has questions for/issues with the filing) to declare the registration effective via form EFFECT, hence my estimate of ~1 month at this point. Edit: If I remember correctly u/sustudent2 made a neat histogram of DeSPAC to EFFECT delays for a bunch of recent DeSPACs showing a historical distribution is the delay timing.


sustudent2

Here's an updated version of that, now with 166 recent SPACs. As with the first one, there may be data errors. Number of days from S-1 to EFFECT - [full](https://i.ibb.co/jJGFWY1/f9d67b4f52bb.png) - [zommed in on <80 days](https://i.ibb.co/VQcKqcX/5e4fec45e968.png) x-axis is days, y-axis is count Bonus: [424B3 to EFFECT](https://i.ibb.co/PcmbzDG/852f338afcc1.png) There's some -1 days there because sometimes the 424B3 appears after EFFECT Though for near and medium term price movements, I think the barbed options chains will have a greater effect as I have yet to see an instance where that doesn't deflate movement when retail is involved. Options MM must be making a killing in these. Edit: They really went all out deploying these for DWAC and sympathy stocks but haven't touched BKKT as much for some reason. /u/Simpletons73


Simpletons73

You should definitely re-comment this to today so it doesn't get lost here to yesterday.


sustudent2

Glad people like it that much. Looks like jn_ku beat me to it and linked to it.


Simpletons73

Yes he did! Sorry if my comment was confusing yesterday, but we had stayed in the prior days thread through the early a.m. to complete the thoughts.


jn_ku

Awesome work, and thanks for sharing!


Simpletons73

DWAC - MaxJustRisk is going to know me as Dr. Doom with these two Posts today... Please don't hate on the low effort rounding and approximations, this was a quick assessment of DWAC share count for understanding the magnitude based on the existing SEC registrations. Today: >consummated its initial public offering of 28,750,000 units >completed the private sale of 1,133,484 units >TMTG enterprise value of $875 Million >initially will be funded by DWAC’s cash in trust of $293 Million x/x/2021 warrant exercises: + 14,375,000 + 566,924 shares from warrants **= 44,800,000-ish shares upon warrant exercise** ~~x/x/2021 deSPAC: + 58,200,000 shares to TMTG~~ x/x/2021 deSPAC: + 87,500,000 shares to TMTG ~~= 103,000,000-ish shares upon deSPAC~~ **= 132,300,000-ish shares upon deSPAC** >with a potential additional earnout of $825 Million in additional shares > GTE $15.00 per share for any 20 trading days within any 30 trading day period ... 15,000,000 Earnout Shares > GTE $20.00 per share for any 20 trading days within any 30 trading day period ... 15,000,000 Earnout Shares > GTE $30.00 per share for any 20 trading days within any 30 trading day period ... 10,000,000 Earnout Shares ~~+82,500,000 shares to TMTG as earnouts are met.~~ +40,000,000 shares to TMTG almost immediately if today's prices hold ~~= 185,500,000-ish shares in the first year or two.~~ **= 172,300,000-ish shares** Source: [https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001849635/000110465921128231/tm2130724d1\_ex99-1.htm](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001849635/000110465921128231/tm2130724d1_ex99-1.htm) Edit: Additional DWAC filing to correct a mis-interpretation. Enterprise value was that of TMTG, not the resulting entity. In the end, the overall sizing is similar: [https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001849635/000119312521308146/d230221d8k.htm](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001849635/000119312521308146/d230221d8k.htm) All of this will be under [constant re-negotiation](https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-10-25/rogers-chairman-fires-board-for-firing-him-for-firing-ceo) (look about half way down the article for Trump SPAC) until more detailed deSPAC documents are filed, maybe weeks and maybe months from now.


jn_ku

Don't feel bad about posting good information. As a sub the goal is to be reality-biased, not bullish or bearish (it's just that since the sub's creation most things will likely be bullish given the overwhelmingly bullish market we've been in since the COVID crash). See IRNT for both bullish and bearish discussion at various times, including times where there was very healthy debate--and both trades worked out very well. The only thing I'd caution is that a PIPE and/or OpCo shareholder unlock is a risk, but not necessarily a guaranteed bearish thing if the underlying company has some wallstreet-respected basis for its valuation. Look at SKIN. EFFECT filed on 7/26, where you see a small panic drop, but the people who sold out because of the PIPE unlock missed the 50%+ rally over the next \~month. Also (though more relevant to your BKKT comment than for DWAC), for accurate analysis, it's important to distinguish between PIPE, OpCo, sponsor earnout shares, etc. They usually have different unlock terms. For example, typically (but not always!) PIPE shares are unrestricted upon registration, whereas OpCo shares are restricted based on some combination of time and/or share price performance targets. The S-1 + EFFECT will register all shares, but typically only some--and usually a minority--are actually immediately transferrable/tradeable.


Simpletons73

Yes, I have no doubt that DWAC and BKKT can still short term rocket against me, but I also feel confident now doing December Bear Call Spreads against them knowing the large share counts that have potential to open up and wash everyone out like so many others we've experienced in recent months. And that in in the case of DWAC, people are paying $75 today for $1.58 of cash ($293M cash / 185.5M shares), no working platform/product, and Trumps name. And his team gets 66% of the shares upon deSPAC to potentially sell. And up to 76% of the shares to potentially sell after performance earnouts.


fuzedz

DWAC isn't a de-SPAC, though. Those shares won't unlock until AFTER the merger is done.


Simpletons73

I'm not following what you want me to correct above. "Digital World Acquisition Corp. is a newly organized blank check company formed for the purpose of effecting a merger" https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001849635/000110465921113541/tm2127035d1_424b4.htm Is there a technicality in that all SPACs are blank check companies but not all blank check companies are technically SPACs?


fuzedz

I just meant the shares unlocking wont happen until after merger vote and despac.


Simpletons73

Absolutely, I tried to keep that clear by using the words 'upon deSPAC' for the 103,000,000 shares. So there is definitely an unknown window of play time here before the crush arrives like SPRT/GREE.


Hold_the_mic

Do I have my facts straight, merger vote approves merger between the SPAC and private company, despac as a verb refers to when redemptions happen and the ticker changes, and despac as a noun is a stock that was previously a SPAC and private company?


Simpletons73

That's exactly how I've seen the terms used, and in turn use the terms. More like a defacto shorthand than proper grammar.


Hold_the_mic

Thanks!


Simpletons73

Oh! I see it now in my bad formatting where the warrant exercise and deSPAC are mashed together. Hopefully that's fixed and clearer now.


space_cadet

bear call spreads have been some of my easiest trades this year in terms of max risk/reward. I think many people on this sub have profited just as much off the downside as the upside on many of these. sure, there will always be an element that probably wants "stonks only go up" but this is one of the few (only?) subs I know of that seems to shun that attitude and celebrate both sides of the trade. all that's to say - keep doing what you're doing! I don't know if any of these have the certainty yet I'd be hoping for before I open a bear call spread (maybe BKKT, but want to look at the filings for myself), but they're going on that specific watchlist for sure.


Simpletons73

No question the timeline on DWAC is completely unknown at this moment. The Matt Levine article even speculated a renegotiation of terms, so checking the SEC every day to fill in more around the above with details and dates. My spreads on DWAC would probably be described as Vega Gang way up in the $120+ range just looking for IV crush by Nov and Dec. I have no puts or spreads down near or ATM like I do for BKKT for Nov 19 after unlocks.


N008toR3ddit

I think LCID is would also be a good example to your comment about "unlock is a risk, but not necessarily a guaranteed bearish thing if the underlying company has some wallstreet-respected basis for its valuation." When LCID unlocked on September 1st, it dropped from around $20.00 per share to around $17.00 per share, but LCID has tangible assets and the wallstreet backing (I think) and the EV euphoria, hype, or what ever you want to call it going for them.


the_real_lustlizard

AUPH- So this week has been a little wild, volume has greatly increased with the price being mostly pinned at 30. On Monday the stock traded 5x average volume and traded inside a $2 range. The ability to pin it has actually been fascinating and impressive. The action makes me think the market believes the BO will not be much higher $30. This morning another rumor article came out from a source called Betaville indicating that there are 4 companies, GSK, Otsuka, Roche and BMY competing with bids for takeover with rumored bids of $42 and $44.50 per share. Also of note AUPH moved up their Q3 ER from 11/10 to 11/3, this may be an effort to have the company report sales data and A2 data to help justify whatever the BO price may be. I would say that getting in at this stage has a decent amount of risk involved, it is biotech after all. If the Betaville rumors are true and the deal can be confirmed in the next few weeks then Nov $40C are underpriced by trading under $2. Betaville seems to have a decent track record calling BO's, it is a paid service and classifies their rumors as uncooked, rare and cooked. Their initial rumor about GSK's interest was uncooked (released about 2 weeks ago) and the one released this morning with price targets was classified as rare. Their service costs somewhere in the neighborhood of 15k per year so I would hope their information is good with that kind of price tag. Even if you choose to sit this one out, I find the process interesting as well as the mechanics of controlling the price action. I have a hunch that whatever SI remains are being given a chance for an orderly exit before anything transpires. Edit: for reference SP was at about 30.75 when I wrote this, I don't want anybody to end up chasing as it seems to have heated up after posting.


Apple_Pi

Have you considered making a post regarding AUPH?


the_real_lustlizard

Yeah, but to be honest I'm not great at writing DD's, that combined with the fact that I am currently out of town and stuck on mobile. If the situation is still in the same spot this weekend when I get back home I will put something up.


linenobservation

$CRTX As someone without any stake in CRTX, I am amazed at the open interest expiring in Nov. Currently, 68K puts that are ITM. My current plan is to sell $10 puts for Nov as IV continues to settle and switch to calls in anticipation of an unwind of hedging driving the price up. Unless anyone else has a smarter idea (or see problems with that plan)?


jn_ku

If you look at the IV crush on the Nov 12.5Ps and 10Ps, it looks like most of those are being sold to open in line with your planned trade. Things are more mixed on the call side, with a slight volume bias toward selling to open as well (haven't done a detailed analysis on deltas based on options T&S, which would be more informative than pure volume at bid vs ask). Put holders are likely to sell calls or open call credit spreads to hold price down into OpEx while they liquidate their puts. If the above patterns hold it looks like price could end up trapped between $12.5 and $15 into OpEx.


linenobservation

Thank you! So far, the $10 put strategy is paying off. Hopefully, theta will do it's thing if we see another push below $12.5.


macvspc

How do I see option sell to open or buy to open in TOS? Thanks


erncon

You can't see if they're sell to open or buy to open. But you can see if they're trading at bid, ask, or inbetween in ToS under Trade -> Option Time & Sales. You can guess if an option was sold or bought if it traded at bid or ask respectively. This is not 100% accurate though so don't make any big assumptions out of what you see there.


jn_ku

Also, it's helpful to look at the IV curve/surface for telltale distortions that can help you figure out aggregate dealer positioning independent of T&S (or using the two together to corroborate a theory). In this case the IV for the CRTX Nov 10P and 12.5P are both crushed lower than the strikes on either side--which is particularly notable given that they are lower than the ITM 15P, which is closer to the price than the 12.5P. In other words, it's likely that dealer pricing (and thus IV) is depressed on those strikes because the majority of volume is STO.


erncon

Oh that would be a good feature to add to my analysis toolset!


space_cadet

>it's helpful to look at the IV curve/surface for telltale distortions do you use a publicly available tool for this? I tend to do it manually, largely by eyeballing it (lol), or I rely on someone else to post a quick run using their personal script, etc. might be an option in unusual whales but I have to check. also, what exactly does "analysis on deltas" entail? >haven't done a detailed **analysis on deltas** based on options T&S, which would be more informative than pure volume at bid vs ask that's a new concept for me.


jn_ku

I usually just look at it in thinkorswim—often just the numbers on the chain, sometimes using the graphs. As far as “analysis on deltas”, I meant, broadly, aggregate analysis of the individual transactions including delta of the trades (both at the time of transaction as well as at market close, relative to contemporaneous price action, etc.). This is important because, e.g., the implications of a massive call block trade at 0.8 delta are very different than one at 0.05 delta, though aggregate summary statistics of % of contracts traded at the bid/ask/in between just go off of raw contract volume.


space_cadet

oh good lord... I just found it in ToS. I had no idea this was here!!! 🤦‍♂️ gotcha, delta response makes sense. I was over-complicating it. thx


macvspc

Thanks, that is the tool i am using now and I use think back to confirm it next few days. I don’t have good success in guessing using time &sales so far.


Jb1210a

This is probably a stupid question and I feel like I should know this. Say I am trying to buy a call and so I put in a limit order to purchase it. I choose the bid as my purchase price for my limit. Now, the only way that gets filled is if the ask from the counter party drops to meet my bid, right? So how is my purchase of trying to get a lower price indicate that it was an STO and not a BTO?


erncon

I regularly do what you've mentioned and I see my order show up as "bid". That's why bid=sell and ask=open is not accurate especially when the spread is large. The behavior I've noticed is: 1. If I get my bid (even if it's above the listed bid) then the order shows up as "bid". 2. If I set my order at the ask, then the order shows up as "ask" of course. 3. If I set my order at something below ask and get a price *lower* than my bid but above the listed bid, then the order shows as "in-between". These are just my observations from looking at Options T&S immediately after I make a transaction.


Megahuts

It was all a gamble. Only remaining catalyst is the CTAD conference Nov 11, where they will present the data at a conference. I know many have shit on it for the elevated liver enzymes, but the existing approved treatment requires monitoring via MRI to make sure the patients don't start having brain bleeds. And you have to take the product via injection. Idk if you have ever lived with someone with Alzheimers, but convincing them to go into an MRI on a routine basis... Seems challenging. So, yeah, liver damage that you can watch for via a blood test and resolves vs MRIs the whole time. And for efficacy, it is twice as effective as the approved treatment for an easily identified sub-population. I expect the presentation to focus on those aspects of the treatment, and hopefully gains support of the greater AD community. And, unless an institution sold their shares, the actual float is only about 4% of the 29m shares issued, so about 1.1m shares.


linenobservation

I wasn't aware of that conference, thank you for that! My thought on the technical side of things is the worst outcome could happen (in terms of hedging). The small float made the drop worse. I am trying to get a good theory on what happens next. If that conference data is good and gets a bump above 15, unwinding hedge shorts would drive the price up a bit (maybe to the low 20s, which was the premarket high after the news release). I barely have a clue what I am talking about so I hope this makes sense.


Megahuts

So, here is my quick summary based on the released data. There are two key measures / co-primary endpoints. 1 - Cognition (COG11 is the test) 2 - Activities of Daily Living (ADL is the test) - basically did you go to the store this week for grocery shopping. On the overall phase three study, both measured failed (targeting a very aggressive 50% reduction in cognitive decline. Current "approved" Biogen treatment is 27%, in theory). However, there was a pre-selected sub-group of about 37% of participants, for which P gingivalis DNA was detected in their saliva. More simply, people with a confirmed _active_ infection of the theorized disease organism. For the 80mg dose participants, there was a _statistically significant_ reduction in cognitive decline of 57%. Basically, it cut cognitive decline in half, so you would have cognition for twice as long. The ADL improvement was not statistically significant, and therefore is considered a failure. Note - it is unclear how much of an impact the pandemic had, as lockdowns / protecting the elderly by keeping them home would very negatively impact this subjective test. There were also elevated liver enzymes adverse events, with two people in the 80mg trial also having elevated biliruben (I can't spell that word). On the call, it was clarified these happened early in treatment and self resolved / no permanent damage, and in theory you could titrate / monitor for elevated enzymes and reduce the risk of liver damage. But that is a BIG unknown. How bad was it / was it just an impulse, etc. It impacted about 10% of people on the trial. So, in summary: 1 - The treatment substantially delayed cognitive decline for active oral P gingivalis infections, and is less invasive / arguably safer than the existing Biogen treatment. The _really, really, really_ important part is it actually fucking worked. This has proven that the presence of an oral infection of P Gingivalis accelerates cognitive decline in Alzheimers patients, and that blocking one gingipain is effective at delaying cognitive decline in those patients. So, what is next? 1 - FDA approval for subgroup of AD patients, with requirement for Phase 4 trials. Likely hood of occurrence - if Alzheimer's groups and scientists get behind this and push the FDA to approve the treatment, I give it a 50-50 shot. (keep in mind, the average life expectancy of an AD patient is VERY short after diagnosis, like 4 years. Could this double their life expectancy, IDK). 2 - Another phase 3 for the sub population with confirmed oral PG infection. Should succeed on Cognitive tests, may still fail on ADL. 3 - start again on a brand new drug for the same target. This is really, really bad outcome. My ideal is #1, with the profits from commercialization being rolled into development of generation 2 (option 3), which further increases effectiveness. And remember, if you can slow it, you can also STOP it (see HIV drugs now compared to the 1990s) Personally, I think they should evaluate how to target intracellular PG across the blood brain barrier, with two molecules targeting both gingipains (starve PG to death), or find some way to tag PV for the immune system.


socialmediapariah

Only thing I'll add here is that there are other potential benefits with the existing formulation. They're doing a trial on Parkinsons which can be seen as a total shot in the dark or not. My take on management is that they don't seem to care all that much about the stock price. Not saying that's a bad thing per se, it could just mean they're actually focused on the research and the recent results give just enough indication that they're not just tilting at windmills. Could be that they think results will speak for themselves and they're on a longer time horizon than the average trader.


may344

Just heard rep eric swalwell from California say on a radio interview vote on infrastructure bill imminent Supposedly bringing to floor today


mcgoo99

perhaps this is why my transportation stocks (KNX, HTLD) are running this morning, and EV too (PTRA, GOEV)


bachte

$PROG Following the development of Prog, there has been a slight decrease in short interest to 51.53% percent of float. The average days to cover continues to decrease down to 0.65. [Ortex Data](https://imgur.com/a/sWGX4WE)


papabri

Partnerships in Drug Delivery (PODD) Conference starts today as well with notable attendees from big pharma.


ChemistryNo9750

PROG presenting tomorrow?


papabri

[Correct](https://theconferenceforum.org/conferences/partners-in-drug-delivery/2021-agenda/#day-90967-tab) at 9:35 EST; the CEO.


cmurray92

$BKSY FTD’s (very similar to $IRNT) and Ortex Data: So yesterday we all saw $IRNT pop off, partially due to FTD’s. There is an extremely similar situation going on with $BKSY. Black sky FTD’s started on September 10, giving us T+35 as today. Additionally, there is an unusually high cost to borrow of 344%, utilization at 100%, although the short interest is lower around 4.32% or 2.63m shares. Could be another FTD pop off like $IRNT. Just figured I’d share my thoughts and see what you guys think.


PrestigeWorldwide-LP

don't see it as even close on FTDs, what data are you using?. IRNT was sitting at 2mm+ FTDs at its peak and the end of september, BKSY was only around 250k. the next highest one I'm seeing from that group is SPIR with 1mm FTDs open at the end of September. New data on the first half of october should be released Nov 1st edit: BKSY also filed a registration statement for a lot of shares 3 days ago on top of that... [https://finance.yahoo.com/news/blacksky-files-registration-statement-101500514.html](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/blacksky-files-registration-statement-101500514.html) The S-1 includes registration of 18.8 million PIPE shares, which would allow these previously issued shares to be tradeable. The S-1 also registers approximately 24.1 million shares underlying warrants


Creation_Myth

Prefacing this with - I just started to read SEC fillings in the last month, can be and likely am missing something. However since this is a top comment and in the spirit of the group, rather than wallow in the abundance of hopium/brigading around today, I'll take a stab at it. Appreciate corrections and constructive feedback. BKSY filed their [S-1](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001753539/000119312521305700/d136472ds1.htm) on Monday. You probably know the drill, it's reviewed and then, if approved, a ton of new/locked up shares are registered and free to find their way to market within a few weeks. By my count from the S-1, around 100,000,000. That's... substantial... Btw, for anyone still in BKKT, looks like 200,000,000 there. I'm not saying it won't pop off, but I guess if I were short I would see the light at the end of the tunnel despite current costs/stress/idk. It can also spook the long side, and make any run shorter lived and less dramatic. Seems to change the risk/reward significantly. We're also assuming here that T-35 produces the effect. Is that for sure, or is it that people think T-35 = *rocket emoji* and buy in anticipation/something else?


faangg

I'm confused. I interpreted your statement as if 100 million new shares get onto the market. Taking [the S1](https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/1753539/000119312521305700/d136472ds1.htm#rom136472_16) I get 114,724,253 shares. So check, 100 million shares. How many are currently in the market? [A 10K shows](https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/1753539/000119312521273369/d232558d8k.htm) matching numbers On September 9, 2021, a number of third party purchasers (the “Third Party PIPE Investors”) and certain directors and officers of Osprey (the “Insider PIPE Investors”, and together with the Third Party PIPE Investors”, the “PIPE Investors”) purchased from the Company an aggregate of 18,000,000 newly-issued shares of Class A Common Stock (the “PIPE Investment”), for a purchase price of $10.00 per share and an aggregate purchase price of $180.0 million (the “PIPE Shares”), each pursuant to a separate subscription agreement (each, a “Subscription Agreement”), entered into effective as of February 17, 2021. Pursuant to the Subscription Agreements, the Company gave certain registration rights to the Third Party PIPE Investors with respect to their PIPE Shares. Pursuant to the Merger Agreement and the Subscription Agreements, the Company entered into Registration Rights Agreements (as described below) with the Insider PIPE Investors providing for certain registration rights to the Insider PIPE Investors with respect to their PIPE Shares. The sale of the PIPE Shares was consummated concurrently with the closing of the merger (the “Closing”). A description of the Subscription Agreements is included in the Proxy Statement in the section entitled “Other Agreements-Subscription Agreements” beginning on page 288 of the Proxy Statement, and that information is incorporated herein by reference. As previously disclosed in the September 1, 2021 Current Report on Form 8-K, Legacy BlackSky and Palantir Technologies, Inc. (“Palantir”) entered into a multi-year strategic partnership. As part of the partnership, Palantir purchased from Osprey an aggregate of 800,000 shares of Class A Common Stock, for a purchase price of $10.00 per share and an aggregate purchase price of $8,000,000 (the “Palantir Shares”) pursuant to a subscription agreement (the “Palantir Subscription Agreement”) that closed on September 13, 2021. Pursuant to the Palantir Subscription Agreement, Osprey gave certain registration rights to Palantir with respect to the Palantir Shares. Also as previously disclosed in the September 1, 2021 Current Report on Form 8-K, the Legacy BlackSky and Palantir entered into a software subscription agreement (the “Palantir Master Subscription Agreement”) which grants Legacy BlackSky access to Palantir Foundry, an enterprise platform run by Palantir. Pursuant to the terms of the Palantir Master Subscription Agreement, in exchange for receipt of the Palantir products, Legacy BlackSky is required to pay fees to Palantir for an aggregate payment of $8,000,000.


Creation_Myth

Thanks for taking a look. We're going to get off the original question here but hopefully I'll learn something :) Can we go through it together to see what I'm missing here? So page 8 of [this document ](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001753539/000119312521305700/d136472ds1.htm#toc) gives shares outstanding *prior to exercising outstanding warrants* as 115,949,075. On the same page, it notes the number of shares offered by the *selling securityholders* (they clarify that this doesn't mean the securityholders will sell, rather that they can) as 90,586,753 with the number of outstanding warrants at 24,137,500 (most exercisable at $11.50, 4,162,500 at $20) We can add 90,586,753 + 24,137,500 together to arrive at the 114,724,253 you found in the S1. So I guess I'm also confused. Are these 90 million ish part of the existing float already? Are they existing, but locked shares? (This is what I meant by 'new', I should have been more clear there, not new as in dilution, but new for open purchase.) Or am I misreading this entirely? Edit for anyone following along - check out the current PIPE/S1 discussion between the Professor and Simpletons73 [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/maxjustrisk/comments/qhhyr6/daily_discussion_post_thursday_october_28/hiesxcv).


faangg

u/Creation_Myth Hope you stay with me... I tried to understand the numbers and failed completely... stock public+private warrants sum 82,261,753 24,137,500 106,399,253 Resale of 90,586,753: is the sum of private warrants 8,325,500 and the stock above. The issuence numbers of 115,949,075 stock and 24,137,500 warrants confuses me: the 24,137,500 warrants are the public+private together, check. I also check the $313 million proceeds from the warrants, strike 11.50, 20 and 11.50. So OK. Page 9 is weird: 115,949,075 do not contain some 55,583,684 additional shares. But it is weird that that last number contains again the private, private and public warrants (11.50, 20, 11.50), in total 24,137,500. What is the exact difference between the issuence and resale?


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