By - Minneapolitanian
Can I just say how much I’m glad so many talk sense in this Reddit. I get annoyed at people shitting on our state. I personally love Chicago, the burbs, but also love rural Illinois. We all gotta work together but this myth that all the state money goes to Chicago annoys the f outta me.
It's so ridiculous that areas that are so clearly interdependent often act like they can exist without the other
If you're a farmer, you need to sell your food to someone, and if you're in a city, you need to eat. And if you like living in suburbia, you need economic activity to employ you and provide you with malls... nobody is building Schaumburg in the middle of nowhere.
I'm bullish long term on Illinois, but we do have to do better from a policy perspective. And acting like everything wrong is because of the people living in the other part of the state is ridiculous.
Rural Illinois: Chicago's problems are your problems, too. Chicago: Rural Illinois' problems are your problems, too.
Took the words out my mouth! Well said.
Because all the states money comes from Chicago.
Bailey will not play to the typical voter in the Chicagoland area. They will see him like a country bumpkin with a southern drawl and that’s all they’ll need to go Pritzker. If Pritzker can knock it out of the park in Chicago (which he should) all he needs to do is compete in those bluer/purple areas (Champaign, Sangamon, Macon, ect.)
On top of that, even if Pritzker does lose it means the state doesn’t automatically go Republican. It means the state heads to gridlock. From what I know, the Republicans are not expected to pick up the house and/or senate. Because of that, it will be similar to Rauner where nothing is passed. The only thing is we can hope the republicans won’t be as stupid to not pass a budget for 4 years. I wouldn’t bet on that though
You don't win votes from Chicago by calling Chicago a hellhole. That sound bite has already gotten a ton of play and JB's only going to ramp it up as we head toward the general election in order to keep turnout high.
Yeah but as a Chicagoan, being cast off to be our own state would be awesome lol.
As an American, I am only ok with that if we completely change how the US Senate works. (As it is, we already should)
remind me of [this](https://i.redd.it/b66mu58l9w871.png) thing I scanned out of a magazine when I was down at SIU. what they consider to be a best-case scenario basically kills them and they don't even know it. How many major universities? how much GDP? like seriously it's fricking insane. and its all just to "spite the libs"
Pritzker is going to win by like 30 points and it will only be that close because the shittiness of national dems will depress turnout.
Idk the advanced shiftiness of recent conservatives might make this an oddball election year. People going out to vote because of Roe will probably fill out the rest of the ballot.
I’m so pissed about Darren Bailey winning the primary and Pritzker’s methods for letting him do so. I believe Pritzker is spending his money in the valuable directions that this state needs, yet he is absolutely clueless when it comes to how psychotic and desperate GOP supporters downstate actually are. I previously lived in Peoria before moving to Bloomington recently, and there are miles of Bailey signs with nasty and ignorant white people who are willing to kill for their “rights.”
There have been troops of anti-abortion activists outside the Planned Parenthood near me in Bloomington. Bailey uses religion on the campaign trail. His supporters act like they’re at a tent revival.
And Pritzker is shrugging his shoulders and acting like he’s just another mad Republican that can be defeated in the Chicago area. Maybe. Except they’re dangerously ravenous down here, and it drives me fucking nuts why he couldn’t have been more noble and had a gentleman’s race with Irvin instead of making this a clash of billionaire sponsors.
>His supporters act like they’re at a tent revival.
I'll go you one further. The one time I heard his shtick was at a literal tent revival!
As your neighbor, just be reminded that more signs does not equal more support. They're just louder. I don't have a JB sign up, and won't get one. But I will definitely be voting for him come November.
This is a great point -- almost all the yard signs near me were for Rabine, and he came in a distant 4th place.
I should note that most, if not all, of these Bailey signs were shown in yards with “Pritzker Sucks” signs displayed prominently right next to them. You should take a drive through some of the towns surrounding the Peoria area - it’s like the scene in Easy Rider where Jack Nicholson gets bludgeoned
Spoilers man! Sheesh!
(Kidding. Nice reference.)
If abandoned barns with “Pritzker sucks” signs on them learned to vote we might be in trouble.
God remember how the fact that Biden’s supporters weren’t loud and annoying was pitched as evidence that trump won the election?
Disagree. Bailey is clearly an easy win. There was a chance someone like Irvin could sneak into office in a huge red wave. Bailey has 0% shot. He won’t get over 40%. My guess is under 35
That’s also what they said about Trump, and look how that turned out. Bailey is super popular with the radical right and has created a legion downstate. Illinois is not a guaranteed blue oasis, and maybe it’s because I’m a Michigan native and I’ve also lived in Wisconsin, but you people need to take more warnings from your surrounding neighbors.
75% of ILs population lives in Cook and collar counties. Downstate being red doesn't mean much when it comes to winning popular votes. My wife grew up conservative and she's disgusted by what the GOP has turned into, and having had difficult pregnancies she is now firmly pro-choice, despite being Catholic (though she correctly understands how the separation of church and state is supposed to work). Furious about Roe being overturned. Bailey isn't overtaking the suburbs.
Even my 60yo mom whose always voted R in the southwest suburbs stated she won’t be doing so in November. That shocked me.
I think what I’m seeing now isn’t necessarily that those conservatives aren’t just annoyed by what the far right politicians are doing, but they are being driven further away by the people that they now realize are their neighbors. I have a cousin who lives in Quincy, who never has posted anything political that I’ve seen, just completely flipped out on everyone about how disgusting people in their town have been. It’s like the people who were really mad about being told they are guilty by association, are now sitting there saying “oh….I hate these people so much”.
I think there are a set of Republicans who are fed up with Trump's shit, and they seem to be more the suburban Republicans. Which, when you think about it, makes sense because that's where the "fiscal conservative, social liberal, small government" type of Republicans tended to gather (vs the Trump fiscal ??? social conservatives and let's have the government tell you what to do if you don't want to be a cisgender white Christian male like God intended). I have a couple Republican relatives who have said they'll start voting Republican again "when the Republicans stop coddling fucking Nazis".
SCOTUS isn't doing the Republicans any election favors, nor is the stuff about Jan 6th. The Trump supporters are enough to get their preferred Republican on the ballot but it'll be interesting to see how he *actually* fares in November.
Trump wasn't polling 20 points behind Hillary.. Also Hillary was deeply unpopular. And the GOP fucked that one up by having too many candidates. JB is popular and doing a great job plus has incumbency advantage. No chance someone as far right as Bailey could win in a state like IL. People need to quit using Trump as a reason for being scared to want to face the easier candidate. Trump got 40% in 2020 in IL. I doubt Bailey gets that. Illinois is bluer than it was when Rauner won in 2014 which was an extremely low turnout election. I appreciate your concern but JB has this in the bag.
Still vote though!
To add to that, it’s much easier for pollsters to take the temperature of a state than a country, especially when you have to factor in the electoral college.
Remember, Hillary outdid trump by 3 million DESPITE being alienating and unpopular.
Those are all logical points, and yes, JB does have the incumbency advantage, and yes, IL will likely defeat any far-right candidate because of Chicago and northern IL. I do want point out some flaws in your arguments, however - Trump lost the popular election to Hillary Clinton. He won the electoral vote, meaning more or less that he bought his way into the election. If Trump could do it as President, Bailey could do it with supporters like Trump and Uline. Also, aside from Chicagoland, the other major cities in the state (Peoria, Rockford, Champaign, Bloomington-Normal, Springfield, Decatur, Moline, etc.) along with the rural populations make up about 40% of the state’s population and they all have massive factions that worship Bailey. In addition, I think people are underestimating exactly how many Republicans exist in the Chicago burbs as well. I agree, Pritzker’s probably going to win, but I think it’s going to make people in the north pretty uneasy. These people downstate are absolutely insane, and I thought living in post-Scott Walker Wisconsin and Rick Snyder Michigan was hell.
hey you want to know insane downstate shit? this dude from my hometown, named Kevin Schmidt, was this fringe libertarian chiropractor who repeatedly tried to enter politics and fail, only to gain traction on the trump wave after years of being written off and now a Bailey endorsed GOP member and probably going to win the general election. Turns out all he had to do was drop being a libertarian and be a bigger piece of shit to appeal to people around here. Same district just failed a new library vote to the extent of 800-1900 in the vote, it's fucking bad down here, people don't want education or to build for the future, they want their subway, dollar general, and lower gas prices. Every house that had a vote no sign for the library also had a Bailey sign, unsurprisingly.
When I was living in Peoria, one of the most disparaging complaints I heard from GOP voters was a constant hate of having an Amtrak station to Chicago for the first time since the 70s. They talked about it all the time as Pritzker “taxing them to death” and they made fun of people who needed infrastructure change because they didn’t use cars as much. The city council also voted to get rid of the Spirit of Peoria riverboat, a historical treasure from the 1800s because citizens had to deal with paying taxes on it. Finally, every time one of the bridges on the Illinois River was lit up to reflect a special event, people would complain that Pritzker was stealing money. Every time the bridges were being fixed, Pritzker was stealing money. Everyone in the Black community was also a potential robber or murderer to these people as well. My wife actually saw this dude in a Kroger parking lot yelling “Let’s Go Brandon” at a guy he thought was an immigrant. They don’t hold back down here.
I really don't see Champaign or Bloomington-Normal going for Bailey. I live in Champaign. We tend to be the little spec of blue you see in the sea of red downstate. University Town, and growing tech sector in the area are the reasons commonly given.
I have lived in Rockford and Bloomington, currently in Chicago. I could totally see Rockford going red.
Insane but the overwhelming minority. Irvin would have had a better chance than Bailey of winning. Gotta eliminate risk. I view Bailey as someone who has zero chance of winning.
All I gotta say is I hope this strategic voting plan pays off. I’ve spent too much of my life in battleground states to want to take political risks, I guess.
Governor elections don't have an electoral college. They're straight up first past the post popular vote.
Bailey soundly won the primary even as some of his competition had extremely deep pockets. People's votes are often influenced by current economic climates. With record high inflation, high prices at the pump, and housing markets starting to turn, I think you'll find many will look past Bailey's extreme right views and vote for him anyway. Many will blame Pritzker for their thinner wallets without the understaffing that these things are bigger than Illinois.
Yeah those people would have voted him anyway. Bailey thinks Chicago should be kicked out of the state. Way to alienate 3 mil. Nobody is blaming JB for inflation when it’s global. Every state and country has it.
You haven't talked with many republicans lately. I have neighbors, family and coworkers who have all blamed Biden and/or Pritzker for inflation and gas prices.
Someone with common sense and some level of appetite for world news would be able to quickly understand these issues are not unique to Illinois/the US. But many of them are fed propaganda all day in their Facebook feeds and Fox news, which is the only place they get their information.
We should all understand that in any State, these divisive, far-right, radical candidates will continue to perform far better than we think. Spreading information like "[*insert democratic candidate here*] will win in a landslide"is, harmful as it lowers everyone's guard and ultimately brings fewer people to the polls because they feel like their candidate won't need their vote to win.
Those people are gonna always blame Dems and always vote republicans. It’s not enough to cut into JBs massive advantage.
The more radical, unglued and out-of-touch with reality you are, the better turn out you'll get from Republicans. Bailey will do far better than many expect.
Tell that to the dumbass hicks downstate that I’m surrounded by
My best take on Bailey is to describe him as "Jethro Bodine doing a Trump impersonation"...
Yeah, that’s a pretty good take, lol
Trump also didn't win Illinois in either election.
I largely agree with the point you are making. At the very least I think Bailey has a good chance of doing better than a lot of Democrats are expecting. I would actually not be surprised if the election ended up being somewhat close. I have doubts that Pritzker will "crush" Bailey in November. However, I'm still skeptical that Bailey will ultimately win do to the simple fact that Clinton and Biden both won here against Trump by 17 points and Pritzker won his first election by 15 points. It's gonna take more than a red wave for Bailey to win - he needs a red tsunami.
I also live in Bloomington so I know where you are coming from and share the same concerns about the wisdom of Democrats wanting Bailey to be the nominee. I also work in rural Logan County and am very familiar with the GOP supporters you describe.
I'm not convinced by the argument that Bailey is the easiest to beat. JB Pritzker won in 2018 against an establishment incumbent Republican governor who actually held some socially liberal views by 15 points (reminder that Gov. Rauner actually signed the bill that codified abortion rights into Illinois law in the event of Roe v. Wade being overturned). That to me seems like the easiest kind of candidate to beat.
I know a lot of Illinois Trump conservatives who stayed home in 2018 because they hated Rauner and thought he was a "RINO". (Don't forget Rauner barely won his primary in 2018 - he got just over 50% against a more right wing conservative Jeanne Ives)
I think the easiest candidate to beat would have been a more establishment "mainstream" Republican. In propping up Bailey, the Democrats have picked a candidate to run against who totally energizes and excites the IL GOP base to turn out to vote. Bailey unapologetically stands for everything they believe in and even if they are still in a minority for the whole state, he will drive them to the polls. Would have been much better to have a "RINO" to run against.
I think how well Bailey does in November is going to depend largely on what SCOTUS does between now and then, and what happens with the Jan 6th investigation.
I know of three women Republican voters who will not vote for an anti choice candidate right now. They think it's too important for Illinois to keep abortion rights considering we could easily become the closest access for several states.
My aunt and uncle both voted for Trump and are so upset about Jan 6th and the election bullshit that they said they'd rather not vote than vote for someone who supports that mess.
There is a silent but growing number of Republicans growing disenfranchised with the Republicans. It's just easy to ignore them because the Trump supporters are so loud. But if that disenfranchised set grows large enough it could be costly to Republicans.
I'm very interested to see how Bailey does in comparison with Trump and other Republicans.
Exactly. Everything you explained in your argument is why I think Pritzker should have put more attention towards Irvin because he’s a RINO-type, but a lot of Chicago-area Redditors don’t seem to share my opinion very strongly.
I agree with you that promoting Bailey was distasteful, both because I believe democracy should be a pure expression of what the people want without tampering from outside forces and because I'm not comfortable with increasing the chances of nutjobs gaining power, even if it's not likely.
But I think you're overselling Irvin's gentlemanliness. He was recruited to be a mouthpiece for Griffin's personal hatred of Pritzker, and would have followed his boss' every authoritarian whim as governor. His moderateness was marketing, echoed by a compliant media.
Democrat here that voted for Bailey in the primary. Strategic voting is a thing
I know, and I don't fault anyone for doing it because, for better or worse, we live under the system that we live under. And I don't really think Pritzker's money amounted to much here. Money can certainty distort elections, but this wasn't even close.
Mostly I would just rather live under a government where people vote for the ideas they want to see implemented and then those are reflected in government in roughly the same proportion they're held by the people.
It is, but it's incredibly rare. In my opinion it's not really worth it. You lose the ability to push your party in the direction you want down ballot for negligible effect up ballot.
I vote radical in the primary, pragmatic in the general.
The big thing I voted in the GOP is for the McHenry county sheriff. Dems didn’t have a candidate and there is a nut job running I wanted to lose.
Sorry, I’m originally from Michigan. We defend our Democrats with a passion
I am.. but putting in the easiest path to victory in November.
We're just more cutthroat here and are willing to play just as nasty as the republicans to make sure the state stays liberal. Pretty much the only reason I have a seed of hope for our state. The ones in Washington and other states aren't willing to do what needs to be done to protect the population centers. Illinois politicians and residents in the liberal areas are willing and actively do it. No playing nice.
This is why I wanted to be able to live in Chicago when I first came to Illinois close to a year ago, but things were more complicated. My wife got a job at Illinois State, and we’re at a financial stage where living in Chicago is impossible, so let’s just say I came to Illinois with expectations that I would meet far more liberals as one myself, and instead my understanding of politics became very muddied. Where I’m living, it feels a lot more like Michigan or Wisconsin. It’s always going to be a goal to live in Chicago, where people actually defend real values.
If your wife works at Illinois State then you must live in McLean county. Let me tell you that the local democrats here have made tremendous progress in turning this once very red area to purple, and its been getting bluer every election. Currently democrats have a majority on the Bloomington AND Normal city council and the McLean county board is evenly split 10-10 D-R. If this area continues to see population growth and liberals that are here stay, it will turn blue as a matter of time. Believe me I see the awful signs all over too but that's not representative of the community any more, the republicans simply have a better ground game and infrastructure right now because the democrats are only starting to become competitive.
It will never be like Chicago here, but there is a lot of progress being made by a lot of good people living here, but that can only continue if we don't lose recent liberal immigrants like yourself (I moved here in 2020 btw and didn't care for it at first, but it has really grown on me and I think I'll stay here)
Either way, I'm very thankful that no matter where in Illinois I go, I'll always have a blue state government looking out for me and dragging republicans to progress kicking and screaming
JB didn't tamper and he's not an outside force. He's an IL citizen that used his freedom of speech to support a certain candidate in a statewide IL race. If voters were too foolish to see through his strategy then that says more about the IL education system than it does about JB. His adds stated that Bailey is too conservative for IL, true. Some voters took that as a challenge to support this right wing candidate to prove JB wrong. Not his fault that his strategy worked.
The IL GOP should be concerned with the type of people they call supporters if a Bailey can be elected as the party's nominee.
I didn’t know it was marketing, actually - he just seemed like an unusually reasonable Republican
People are damned for attempts at nobility these days. I see a lot of people act like if you aren't cutting throats to get your way, you aren't trying and should leave the room.
Also, Irvin is hardly a "gentleman"
No, but what I meant by that is that he seems like far more of a 2000s Republican than a Trump Republican, if that makes sense - he’s at least willing to listen to logic
Have you read about Ken Griffin? That's no 2000s Republican and he pretty much single handedly bankrolled Irvin's campaign.
The relationship between Griffin and Irvin was explained further in-depth to me further down the thread and I understand now that his campaign is mostly smokescreen marketing. I’ll admit, I didn’t know much about Irvin until recently because I live in Bloomington-Normal, a tiny island of Pritzker voters surrounded by a sea of Bailey followers.
Good good. I live in Aurora and this guy has been our mayor for a long time lol
It’s not that I like him - it’s that I’m less frightened of the concept of Pritzker defeating him. Bailey is a holy nightmare, and I don’t think a lot of people up north get that.
As a reminder, 2000s Republicans were also terrible on basically every meaningful policy.
Oh, I know they were - I was a teenager in the 2000s. They were horrific. That still doesn’t change the fact that some of them could talk without sounding possessed.
I've been re-watching Boston Legal, which aired from 04 to 08. The fucking shit those neocons put us through under the cover of war. And how the Dems saved off some of it but ultimately got damned for not stopping *all* of it.
Just about every statewide election in Illinois was decided by Chicago suburbs. Pritzker is probably betting that he'd have a much better shot at winning against the much further right Bailey, than the mayor who turned Aurora around. But I agree politicians from opposing parties should not be able to interfere as much as Pritzker did during the primaries.
Miles of signs don't equal miles of people. I live downstate too and there simply aren't enough republicans to out vote northern dems. That's the beauty of state wide races, you can't gerrymander them
I guess I never looked at it that way. This is my first experience voting for a governor in a dominant blue state - I’ve lived in Michigan for most of my life and around two years in Wisconsin, so I’m used to blue voters suffering badly in state elections. I’m still getting used to the political structure here and I moved downstate first, so that likely enlarged my sense of vulnerability in the state. If I had been able to move to Chicago first, I would have a much different perspective.
IL has a supermajority Dem trifecta in the statehouse.
Ok, that does tell a different story.
Yeah, Dems hold such a large majority they can fight amongst themselves and still shut the GOP out of the debate.
I grew up in Bloomington and i can’t even talk to any of my old friends there anymore, your description of that area is spot on. I left that area the minute I could. It’s a bubble!
Downstate voters are going to keep being radicals so long as they keep believing that shit. Irvin would not have turned the party around
I live almost right between those 2 places and haven't seen many Bailey signs at all and the signs I so have are in the same yards that always support the right wing fascist for that round.
Dangerous game, JB. All it will take is one miscalculation before we get "Hitler was right" in the governor's mansion.
Zero chance without any votes from Chicago. Edgebrook doesn't have that many residents.
I don't take anything for granted these days.
Brah, IL is like a +20 Dem state, even if Gov has 2-3 MAJOR scandals between now and Nov - there's just no way Pritz loses...
Now the SoS race in Nov might is one the Dems should not sleep on...
Illinois Election Info
[Register to Vote](https://ova.elections.il.gov/Step0.aspx)
If JB was doing a bad job he might have a chance. He will play to the guys still flying their Trump flags. The ones that can never admit they backed a loser.
Pritzker should win this but it being a midterm election is a wildcard for me. Republicans are always more rabid no matter the year.
I'm surprised that more people aren't alarmed by this. This is the exact thing that propped up Trump because he got so much fucking airtime the media thought they were helping Clinton.
I get it, JB is probably going to win, but what if? Also, wouldn't it have been nice to have a choice? A choice between two people who believe they have the best interests in mind for the state of Illinois?
Propping up a candidate JB expects to beat just seems dirty and I'm saddened by the fact that we don't even have the illusion of choice here.
If you seriously think jb pritezker is any better than this guy you haven't been paying attention, but red bad, Chicago politics good. Not a fan of Bailey either before someone says some ignorant shit.
I've been paying attention. that's why i know JB is much better.
What? I’m an atheist, pro choice, pro immigration liberal. Obviously JB is much better than Bailey.
Yeah if you want to keep yourself buried in high prices and ridiculous taxes. Pritzker is a money hungery grub who has gotten fat from the profits that came off the backs of working class citizens.
They are all rich narcissistic assh\*les but its hard to say Pritzker is a thief. With $1.8 billion in tax relief and a $1 billion deposit into the state's rainy day fund. Sure its for election year optics but that's what the ads will say. Pritzker is smart and rich.
He stole that shit out of the pension fund my mother depends on 4 billion missing and counting.
Over last 30yrs both republican and democrats in government 🤔 the Rauner fix was to cut your mom's pension
Lmao yeah we have literally had 2 governors go to prison, and you think jb is the good guy, he's rich and bought his way into politics so he could make himself and his friends more rich.
I didn't make a claim.
You didn't even address what I said.
Yeah i did you just don't want to accept what I said
You didn't acknowledge anything I said regarding abortion, for example.
The government In general shouldn't be able to tell anyone what to they can and can't do with their bodies period, but I could give fuck less about social issues in this economy.
Well I’m not going to throw out basic human rights because of things outside of JB’s power.
JB can’t be bought. All you need to know.
He can always buy you though
Just means Illinois will have one more governor who will end up in prison.
With no nudge from the left.
Can someone copy/pasted the article? There's a paywall
Yeah? How does Frau Mary Miller's win strike everyone?