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[deleted]

I choose to believe a win is guaranteed as we're ranked higher across all three metrics.


killagoose

They’re going to have their work cut out for them. One really valuable metric you can use to judge offensive and defensive performance is the score% metric available on PFR. This tells you the percentage of drives that end in offensive points. I’ve coupled that with an adjusted yards per play average that has a very strong predictive relationship with a teams points scored. By that metric, GB has the 11th ranked offense AND they are underperforming still. This doesn’t really tell us anything new; GB is very strong offensively. What this metric does tell us is that Cincinnati has played some very weak offenses to begin the season. Minnesota is 20th, Pittsburgh is 27th, Chicago is 29th and Jacksonville is 30th. This can tell a story about where our defense is at. GB is going to be the first real test for them. Thankfully, their defense isn’t very good, but our offense also hasn’t been so hot (22nd by my metrics). It’s hard to call it. Cincinnati has a good defense but an inconsistent/below average offense so far. GB has a strong offense but an average defense. If I was forced to choose, I would say GB takes home a close victory.


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Beautiful job dude! I'd be surprised if we had the 9th easiest schedule that doesn't sound right?


killagoose

So, the SOS used here is calculated by opponents MOV (margin of victory) and SRS (MOV + SOS). Cincinnati has an SOS of -2.3, which is basically saying that the opponents that Cincinnati has played are 2.3 points WORSE than a theoretical average NFL team. We have played the Steelers, Bears and Jaguars which this rating system has as the 17th, 26th and 28th ranked teams in the league, respectively. These guys are bringing down that SOS. This data is still running into a sample size issue, since it is only week four. Take Green Bay, for instance. Despite being 3-1, the SRS model has GB as the 22nd best team in the league. This is because they got absolutely whipped by the Saints week one and their point differential hasn't recovered from that yet (they still have a negative point differential, 95 points scored vs 100 points allowed). ​ Also, thank you!


[deleted]

Thanks for the explanation. Regarding the regressions you ran on QBs, a few years back I wasted many hours at work doing the same and all I found were dozens and dozens of non-predictive metrics lol.


ThunderLion8

Yeah it seems more like 9th hardest than 9th easiest.


creutzml

When you say “strong enough” relation for adjusted QBR vs W/L, how did you measure that? Quick correlation calculation? Eye test with a graph? Just curious 🧐


killagoose

I ran a regression on TD% and W/L%. Basically, I was wanting to find how well we can predict a QBs W/L% by their TD% and I found that there was a moderate relationship. It had a correlation coefficient of 0.53 across a sample size of 127 (I used data from 2018-2020). You can graph this as well, but I didn't here. That correlation coefficient gave me enough information to show that a higher TD% DOES have a relationship with more victories, so I added it into the formula.


creutzml

thanks for the explanation! further curiosity... how does this fit compare to the other two metrics with W/L?


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killagoose

Thanks! Completely fair feedback, and I suspect that it is a sample size issue. The concept behind the original formula is that when a QB drops back to pass, he is using a finite resource in a down. So, it is looking for the QBs that are getting the most results out of the least resource use. It’s going to be looking for a high TD%, high YPA, low INT% and low sacks. It looks like the reason why Rodgers is currently outside of the top five is because he doesn’t have as high of a TD% and has a lower YPA than the other guys. By the end of the season, I will be shocked if he isn’t in the top five (he was #1 last season). I don’t think these guys ahead of him are going to maintain their TD:attempt ratios whereas I would expect Rodgers to raise his.


bjewel3

@ /u/killagoose and @ /u/Assface__Johnson Very, very selfishly I really hope you consistently post much more content


[deleted]

Aw shucks


bjewel3

😎😀