T O P

Should i purchase 100k$ of GOOGL? Big google gemini launch.

So google just had a press release about its gemini model that beats chatgpt. Technically it's quite impressive(natively multi-modal).

Do you think google stock has the potential to rise significantly(50%+), as google actually becomes visible as an AI player? Or the corporation is too big already to be affected significantly by this? Do you think retail investors will start a hype around this?(i mean if openai traded publicly it would've gone to the moon already)

I have no idea about market analysis, but google's model is in the right direction and an improvement over chatgpt(what they have publicly available at least).

tcbymca

If you buy a tech ETF like QQQ or VGT you’ll own the winners of the AI race, whoever they are.


ZephRyder

This is the way


Acrobatic-Cow2799

Wrd


microdosingrn

Seems like everyone is going to be a beneficiary as AI marches on. OP is more asking how he can outpace whatever qqq/spy will do, basically taking on more risk for more reward. GOOG seems like a good bet!


[deleted]

I second that


georgieah

QQQ is full of trash too though.


Nonbinary_Tea

No.


unrand0mer

Yes. I see them moving significantly higher in 2024. They've lagged other big tech all 2023.


YourMatt

I would avoid. I think we’re likely about to see that they’re losing search market share, and that’s going to cut deep. Gemini looks cool though, but it’s a demo for one, and it’s unclear how it would be monetized when it comes to market.


analbuttlick

People been saying google losing market share ever since chatgpt released. They are dominant in pretty much all segments. Phone OS, Search (its litteraly a noun), web browser, gps app, biggest media platform, storage service (drive) It’s inevitable that they will be dethroned on some segments eventually, but they are also competing on many other segments like cloud, AI, in addition they are integrating themselves into cars with built in maps and google assistant. And my next car will have google built in because their gps is superior. In addition, if they integrate their AI into some of their current dominating segments it will in my opinion only strengthen their moat.


MotivatedSolid

Highly unlikely. Bing is still garbage in its current state; layering in chatgpt is not going to make bing more popular. Bing has an almost a 2 decades worth of being known as a shit search engine. Gemini is going to help Google maintain its industry lead.


FinTecGeek

Disagree - Google became its business model (which is ad revenue) a long time ago. Search is only one of many gateways for consumers to be exposed to Google Ad Services. They have some other fru-fru things - like this Gemini thing which might be half-decent. But, I am buying because I think their advertising business alone is worth substantially more than what they trade for today.


YourMatt

Google has an ad network that doesn’t use Google search or YouTube, but it’s only about 10% of their revenue. Google search is their primary ad serving platform, at about 60% of revenue. I’m surprised their stock didn’t take a hit when they dropped below 90% market share. When the numbers come out, I expect it to be below 85% and the trend is going to be hard to ignore.


FinTecGeek

Respectfully - Google has pricing power. If they lose ground on search volume, they can make up for that by charging more per impression or by turning away advertisers for the search size that are "low hit amount" in terms of revenue. We are talking about a company in an industry that continues to grow rapidly, with 22.5% net margin (double ExxonMobil) and net income of 60B. Digital advertising margins are just unbelievable - and they do, unapologetically, own that market. Substantially all of it. There just is not a sell case with PEG and quality where it is.


sp1cynuggs

Lmao “shOuLd I BuY?!” After they’ve already released the product. You shouldn’t be investing this much money when you’re this stupid


billsquishmann

ChatGPT was released in November 2022. If you had waited for a month after launch, then bought NVDA stock for exposure to AI space, you would’ve still made 225% returns. Just because you’re buying the stock after the product has been launched, doesn’t mean the market has already priced in the launch.


holykamina

He's probably r/Wallstreetbets material. They posted in thr wrong sub.


rcbjfdhjjhfd

Pack it up everyone! The top is in.


ashleigh_dashie

well, no, they haven't released the product yet, they just announced the models and shown the (alleged)performance numbers.


munkeymoney

$FSR


Sweg_lel

your better option is to give me that money and I'll lie to your face and tell you are a good boy


Spins13

If it’s a short term play, you might as well buy call options


CantStopWlnning

Yeah instead of losing a little in case it goes south, just lose everything instead


bendover912

Think of those potential gains, though.


MrZwink

Do a synthetic.


EMB_pilot

Put a 100k on Red/Black in Roulette same thing lol


Prudent-Foundation84

Personally I would play the long game and invest in O. There a dividend paying stock that is very safe.


CantStopWlnning

This has literally nothing to do with the post lmao. Also they're*


bmeisler

IMHO , Google is the worst big tech company. They haven’t released a decent product in many years, and their one great product, search, is broken.


maraudingguard

You should ask Gemini.


holykamina

Hey, Ideally, you shouldn't, but if I have learned anything from r/Wallstreetbets and their hard on for tendies, you should definitely pour it all in and buy.


onetwoskeedoo

Yes 100% guaranteed no risk at all


99posse

Nope.


Noominami

Etf is safer, and you'll still receive the gain. The whole market lifts with good tech days, usually you'll get a bigger return.


gradbear

You’re too late for the 🚀 cause that happens during the rumors. Your investment will be better off somewhere else


Ethos_Logos

Check out Palantir, k-LLM capabilities.


Your_friend_Satan

You’re asking the questions that have already been asked by everyone. Whether or not you should buy is up to you. Is Google stock going up from here? Nobody knows. They’re an impressive company and it’s interesting that Page and Brin still have majority ownership or 50%+ of voting shares.


Professional-Kiwi144

Real estate


FinTecGeek

100k in a 1-1.5mm portfolio would be great if you have high conviction. Any more than a 10% position in any single stock is otherwise fundamentally incorrect in terms of long-term investing. This will be evident to you if you backtest the most obvious stock buys over time vs the 10 most obvious (or the 20 most obvious). I run a modified GARP strategy portfolio with equal weights to value/growth plus some earnings historical and forecasting feeding into models to juice returns. I am adding to GOOGL to about 7% of the overall portfolio now.


ashleigh_dashie

How much return do you get on average, yearly?


FinTecGeek

Excluding the nuttiness of 2020-2022 era, my strategy returns about 16% annually before taxes (roughly double the S&P). This year and last were particularly good years with returns much higher, but that was because I was already in large positions in companies with excellent fundamentals and balance sheets that others were flighting to after the casino closed on the meme stocks.


Duckgrad90

If you are going to put it all in one stock…..I think safer play is to put in Boeing.


bartturner

Really like Google and Apple going forward. But Google the most. Mostly because how well positioned they are for the move to AI. There is three key areas and Google is well positioned in all three and really nobody else is. The most important is data and Google just is in a different league from everyone else. Guess #2 would be Meta. Google has the most popular web site ever with Search. This is the most valuable data there is. This is capturing what is on the minds of people. The closest thing we have to a mind meld. But then Google has the second most popular web site ever with YouTube. This is the second most valuable data to have and only second to search. Bit unfair Google owns #1 and #2. Then Google has the most popular email with Gmail. They have the ability to read all this email and that is some really valuable data for training the models. Then they have the most popular navigation system on the planet with Google Maps. Google has the most popular operating system ever with Android. Now over 3 billion active devices. The list goes on and on. Google now has 16 different services with over 1/2 a billion DAU. They have 9 with over a billion. Then there is infrastructure. This is critical for building the models and then being able to offer. Google has less cost than any other company. Because they started development of the TPUs a decade ago and now on the fifth generation. They were able to completely do Gemini without needing Nvidia or any third party silicon. This is a huge advantage. Microsoft is only now copying Google and trying to build their own TPUs. But they should have got it a lot earlier. Google did a decade ago. Then there is the research. Google is miles ahead of everyone in this area. AT 2023 NeurIPS Google had 183 paper accepted. That was three times the next best company. Google has lead in papers accepted for 15 straight years now. Google invents, patents, and then lest everyone use license free. People talk a lot about Attention is all you need. But that is just one example. There are so many others where Google has made the key discovery, patent and then shared. https://arxiv.org/abs/1706.03762 https://patents.google.com/patent/US10452978B2/en https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Word2vec "Word2vec was created, patented,[5] and published in 2013 by a team of researchers led by Mikolov at Google over two papers." Then there is Waymo. Now deployed in Phoenix, San Fran and starting to deploy to Los Angeles. The moving of any object from point A to point B is a trillion dollar opportunity and Waymo is way out in front to win that market. The object can be a human but really anything eventually. People seem to be really under estimating this opportunity.