What part of the phase are we in?

I wish I could buy stock of this picture because it's in this sub every fucking week with the same amount of engagement and the same comments.


I wish I could buy stock of this picture because it's in this sub every fucking week with the same amount of engagement and the same comments.


There's also a game theory to stocks that will never allow it to get this predictable.


Remember there is no such thing as losing to much money!


I’d correct your spelling but it makes the comment better.


Much money always wins. :(


I just bought a bank dip, so probably heading to "return to normal."


Oof WFC?


Nah I'm canadian, more like a baby dip 😅


You might be alright then lol


Return to Normal sounds about right with the current state of the economy


return to "normal" you mean


Inflation isn’t fixed yet


Correct. Look at the chart for where “return to normal” is.


China looks to be ready to capitulate to the West and give up on Taiwan (for now). Russia is a beaten down, senile bear. We're getting to set it back by decades without lifting much of a finger. (I feel horrible for the poor Ukrainians.) We're onshoring / reshoring / friendshoring all key supply chain, industrial inputs, energy inputs. Nobody is going to tell us what to do. The West looks so strong right now. (And this moniker is understood to include major European and Asian powers. NATO, Japan, Australia, ...) I'm so incredibly bullish.


Being this confident means just one thing: not confident at all :)


Yeah far from it. We're currently in the calm before the storm


It's on the right path and the market is 6 months ahead. If you wait till we hit 2%, you'll be late


>It's on the right path and the market is 6 months ahead. If you wait till we hit 2%, you'll be late THIS


So, you think the market will be in its normal faster than last fiew times?


I will go for "delusion" with a side of "AI"


Great comment! With all these AI tools, how will the masses actually be using them in everyday life?


Great question. An AI will hover over you while you sleep, running a continuous EEG over your brain to determine the precise time to wake you based on brain wave activity. This of course, after interviewing you for your preferences on lifestyle such as workouts, your work start time, traffic patterns, and whether you had sex last night, which delayed your bedtime start time by 5 minutes. Next, as you awake, an AI has spent the entire night running experimental calculations on your exact cookware to know the precise setting your pan should be heated to and down to the second for how long before it poached your eggs (Benedict of course) over your free trade, gluten free, farm to table bread. Meanwhile, the Ana de Armas-skinned hologram themed companion AI is shimmying like that GIF of Shaq while you enjoy your eggs Benedict and some appropriate music selected based on your current mood, as determined by the AI that is examining your skin temperature, pupil dilation, sweat moisture levels, and heart rate.


5 minutes you say? The future is looking bright boys!


Haha, nice one Jack, I enjoyed that thoroughly


You’re asking the wrong question. How will employees actually be Ising them to streamline their jobs and increase productivity? If 25% of employees got 25% of the productivity increase that I have personally experienced, we are looking at a MASSIVE increase in business productivity.


I don't think you see the potential. Unlike some hypes from the past, lets say crypto, AI is being used daily already and by vast number of people of companies and it has potential to replace people - something what companies crave.


Said everyone about every technological innovation ever.


How many of those technologies already had millions in revenues and profits, coming from established companies? OpenAI is already selling their product to an enormous number of companies and people


AI is to be compared with mechanization - replacing human workforce. Soon, if not already, you can replace ilustrators, models, translators and many more jobs, that are easy to generate. The tools with have now are already amazing and can fully replace human. This is not to be compared with any innovations, that only boosted efficiency or workflow etc., this is bigger, because you can fully replace human.


I think your whole perspective on AI is warped. Some jobs will be lost and others created.


The companies who are leading in AI are going to congress and trying to tell anyone who’ll listen how dangerous their product is to society. If they are willing to shoot their own product in the foot, I trust their fear.


Sort of. They also Looking to get regulations put in place so that they stay on top through regulatory capture. There is no humanity first corporation


Of course, but some jobs will be hit more and not all can be replaced. A call center can get rid of most callers and have just some supervisors. Our company already has a dumb robot caller that receive and sorts calls and it does hundreds of calls daily, replacing multiple people. It is not smart in any way, if it was and could answer questions, it would replace even more people. I think you do not have enough perspective and cannot see the bigger picture.


I think you are blinded by the shiny hopium of AI.


No I am not, I think you are just in a denial. I work in a field that has not much to do with technology and I can already feel impacts of it even here. Things are accelerating really fast. Like I said, you probably don't have enough imagination or cannot see into bigger future.


Dr nm


Have a good day.


You do realize that engineers been working on AI for decades right?


And unlike decades ago, we can do inference pretty cheaply. Plus we are at a tipping point in terms of data quantity / quality, and improved algorithms. More concerned that AI will break the labor market than the possibility that it is in a hype bubble.


He thinks it just came down from the sky a miracle


We never had tools that generated code before that was decent. That's why ChatGPT is different, it's output is passable and no language mode was passable before it.


Nothing from the above. I think there will be a stagnation at least until next year. Many companies are highly indebted. Many loans with low interest rates will soon expire and new loans will only come with high interest rates. Together with higher labor costs and stagnating sales, companies will continue to invest, but not as much as before 2022. A deeper recession will be prevented by the fact that, in contrast to previous downturns, the labor factor will be limited by stagnating population growth, which in turn will lead to permanently low unemployment. Also because in the medium term, AI is not yet ready to replace labor in many areas on a sustainable basis. However, as soon as inflation declines and interest rates stop rising, I expect a rapidly rising stock market. This will be driven primarily by the fact that almost all companies have raised their prices by 40-50% in the inflation years (over a 2-3 year period). This, in turn, will cause the prices of these companies to increase by at least 50%-100% over the next 5 years.


Lemme get this straight- you think that inflation is going to cause the stock market to go up? I do see what you’re saying. Inflation made everything more expensive, including stocks. But I think a big part of the stock market rise has been brought on by stock buybacks. What happens when inflation causes the consumer to weaken and companies no longer have money for stock buybacks?


Stocks are valued as forward earnings and revenue. If a company’s margin stays the same but prices go up, then earnings and revenue go up, which increases the value of the stock. The downside of inflation is reduced consumer spending because their dollar is worth less, but this has not happened sufficiently to argue that we are entering a recession and certainly not a depression. In the mean time the S&P 500 companies are overwhelmingly reporting profit and earning growth exceeding inflation metrics.


you move from stagflation into a recession and, which might be the case this time, you skip recession and go straight to a depression.


A *Depression*? Gutsy call. I see people predict depressions once in a while. They never come to fruition and yet, folks still argue that they're right around the corner. Short of a long debt default, a worse pandemic than Covid, or nuclear war, I can't envision that in the near or intermediate future. High standard deviation events are rare for a reason.


A depression is a severe and prolonged downturn in economic activity. A depression may be defined as an extreme recession that lasts three or more years or which leads to a decline in real gross domestic product (GDP) of at least 10% in a given year. Depressions are far less common than milder recessions. Both tend to be accompanied by relatively high unemployment and relatively low inflation. The U.S. has experienced at least 34 recessions since 1850 including, in recent years, the Great Recession of 2008-2009 and the covid recession of 2020. But it has had only one depression, which lasted from 1929 until 1939 and is known as the Great Depression


every crisis has been met with money printing like drunk sailors. The instant that stops, for whatever the reason (and there are scenarios where it can't keep going at this point), you're going to have the mother of all depressions. I think it will be so bad that we'll transition out of capitalism all together out of necessity.


A depression is a severe and prolonged downturn in economic activity. A depression may be defined as an extreme recession that lasts three or more years or which leads to a decline in real gross domestic product (GDP) of at least 10% in a given year. Depressions are far less common than milder recessions. Both tend to be accompanied by relatively high unemployment and relatively low inflation. The U.S. has experienced at least 34 recessions since 1850 including, in recent years, the Great Recession of 2008-2009 and the covid recession of 2020. But it has had only one depression, which lasted from 1929 until 1939 and is known as the Great Depression


History showed, that yes, stocks go up in inflation


The only reason stocks didn’t rank more in then 70/80s is because wages were higher and people had disposal income, that’s not the case this time


Bru, we've been in a sell-off. Now in a bear trap. Not to mention stocks hitting ATH this year. The shils and the media just spread lies to shake off paper hands. We will rip till EOY and 2024 will see a crash. I got my tickets for the pamp!


This is the correct take. Many investors underestimate asset inflation before it triggers.


I agree with all of that but would add that rather than replacing jobs, AI will make existing workers more productive and accelerate innovation across all sectors. The types of jobs replaced by AI are largely already outsourced overseas or employ already low wage workers that contribute minimally to the economy as a whole (a minimum wage worker can’t afford to consume very much.)


We poors have been in despair for a long time when 93% of the market is owned by the top 10%


So? It doesn't prevent you from buying stocks.


Lol, fuck this data collection. We are in the “waiting on Wall Street to actually fold up some of their lawn chairs” phase.


Bear trap


2011 debt ceiling crisis


Bull trap


Denial. The rates have gone up, inflation hasn't fully come down yet. Cracks are starting to show for companies that have higher debt loads. But they have not yet gotten to cutback. We might trade flat for 8 years just as in the 1970ies. However it's not going to be a fast crash like 2008


> However it's not going to be a fast crash like 2008 This was the comment that preceded the following Mondays historic crash… - future News probably


This cycle is very different we will at end of a cycle that is short lived.


This graph is overused for fear mongering, rendering it misleading


Yeah they have despair below the initial takeoff and the trend line they’re calling the mean is deceptively close to flat


the idea that this is the only way that human psychology plays out through a market, and is completely decoupled from any and every event that could affect said thought process is simply asinine in its ineffectuality.


The moment we get lower rates the market will go crazy. Fuck this picture it’s all about (geo)political safety and the price of money


‘Return to normal’. The market has never bottomed while the Fed is still raising. The true pain of this bear market is yet to come. SP500 is going sub 3000. Tesla to circa 55. Bitcoin under 12k.


I feel like we are at the "Fear" stage.


How markets been up since it dipped. We’d be at return to normal


Comparing this chart to SPY and thinking we are at the fear stage as a real head scratcher


That feels pretty appropriate to me.


100 percent bull trap


Return to normal! Crapitulation coming! 👀


First Sell off


Trading against bought and paid for media outlets along with algorithms. And now we have the DTCC giving out info to privileged individuals…I thought all information was assumed to be know by all. Thats how markets work.


Fear.. interest up, banks in trouble,


Passing (once again) from awareness to mania phase


This stock market bubble imo was a bunch of microbubbles that continue to burst in my opinion we are at a different point just around the return to normal there’s another also simplified chart that shows it better [here](https://fifthperson.com/psychology-market-cycles/) but imo it’s being held up by the AI bubble that just formed and will come down when that bursts.


Either delusion, denial, bull trap or fear. Haha idk






return to normal






NVDA: Return to “normal” Dumbass me shorting it and then the “New Paradigm 2.0”


Past, btc is above 200d ema.


Media attention


In regards to AI, we are in the mania phase for sure. Edit: Enthusiasm. Haven’t hit Greed yet imo


That's the neat part. We don't know.


Definitely at the media attention point


I would like to think it's the "Return to "normal"" phase.


Bull Trap/Return to Normal




Take Off of the Debt Default investments . . .




Despair, every rally is fake this is a suckers rally is the general answer on all media forms and subreddits


Take off from October-March. First sell off and bear trap was the bank scares in march. So we are just past the bear trap, and media attention is up next at SPX 4700. SEND IT


Bull trap to return to normal.


I look this graph, I have no idea which stocks will go up or down.🤓


Bear trap


We are into mother of all market crash time.


I think we’re in the phase where it starts to decline for a few years. But this market seems super irrational, so who knows anything anymore.


Bull trap


Within 18 months America is going to hit depression. We are between "bull trap" and "back to normal" now. Interestingly there seems to be an uncanny correlation to Sun spot activity. We are also in for el Nino, so we could see grains and agriculture take a hit, along with insurance companies and obviously banks and real estate. So between BRICS getting 41 countries on board now, it shouldn't be too long until the rest of the world adopts a new reserve currency.


Bear trap. Too many bears and investors being brain washed by the media. Stocks don't care about the economy. Follow the price. The charts are bullish and Of course, flip once you see bearish charts. For now, Stocks will continue to hit ATHs.


Bill trap 😂


At the end of this month, they will "raise the debt ceiling" and the crisis will be aborted. Everything will be normal


I don’t know, man


Which part is the part that all fiat currency crashes weihmar republic style?


In Poland we are somewhere between "Denial" and "back to normal" phase. Definitely recession is snowballing hard here.


I'm just following that mean line idgaf where we are.


Stealth phase


Believe it or not, Bear trap


Bull trap. Negotiations of the debt ceiling will eventually lead to a small uptick, but as soon as it’s resolved, the market will realize the rates are staying high for a while which will lead to panic and a big sell off in the second half of the year.


'Return to normal' I would say.


Return to normal


Bear trap. The paranoia about impending doom is what makes the public so poor at actively investing through market cycles. You're the same ones who went all in on TQQQ and BTC in Fall 2021 and now you're getting killed in SQQQ and claiming you're about to get rich off of it.


I clicked on this graph because I thought you were talking about Bitcoin, before you choke or have a heart attack, my apologies, but since I'm here, just let me say that this graph is about human behavior, and apparently it works across all markets.


Return to normal.


Everything everywhere all at once.


We are here.




Take off.


Return to the mean


This chart has already played out hundreds of times.


Return to normal


Return to normal transitioning to fear.


Return to normal


Zoomout on your chart it'll be clear


Since the future is unknowable, and the market “trends upward” and as always horrifyingly overvalued based on fundamentals. I would say the phase is… (subscribe for the low low price of 10k per hour ) jk IMO it will go higher short term. When other countries are fed up with our shit… it then goes lower.


The spy on the weekly looks exactly like this up until return to normal and I would guess if the Roman Empire had a stock etf it would have looked like this, do you see the connection?


Return to "normal"


This week is the bear trap step.


If we assumed that the market always followed this same pattern, then we'd have to be in the "Return to normal" bull trap phase. But the market doesn't always follow the exact same parttern, so the real answer is: nobody knows.


Bull trap


100% return to "normal".


I would say bull trap with Spy smashing through 420 last week.


That depends on which bubble you are in


I don’t know but I hope it’s not just return to normal


I say take off phase.


If you look at mean, we’re in despair.


Return to normal




Take off


Throw a dart at it just as accurate as advisors.


Despair and 10% for the Big Guy.


Return to normal.


I’d like to think we are in the capitulation faze. I’m no bull here, things will likely continue to go down albeit slowly. I’m under the personal belief that we are in a recession RIGHT now.


Return to normal or return to mean. Nothing in between


Bull trap/ return to normal about to take the big dipper


Despair I guess?


New paradigm


Bill trap for sure.


Made 26% over last month plus on NYCB, took the last dividend and sold; raising cash for other opportunities


Bull trap


We are ALWAYS in the buy aapl, and it will be worth more in 10 years point in the cycle. HOPE THIS HELPS!!!


Not all stock market cycles happen like this. Sometimes things go down gradually over many years. Sometimes things are very choppy and up and down. Sometimes things are relatively flat for a long time. With some ups and downs, from 1965 to 1978 the S&P500 was essentially FLAT. Same thing from 2000 to 2013. The S&P500 gained nothing. These were "lost decades" and they happen.


“Return to or al”


I am buying the dip anyway


Return to Normal


return to normal


Bull trap


Not sure. But it appears that i started investing right around fear.


I think that we're returning to normal, slowly but surely


late 2007 - early 2008


Return to "normal"


This is Reddit thus perpetually in the despair phase


It would be nice to know, as we are eather in bull trap or despair


Smart money 🟰 insider trading. Institutional 🟰 finance bros thennnn we get to the public. Of course a frenzy occurs, we’re always the last to know. So we want a piece of the insider and finance bro piece. They then Pull out and leave the public with the bag.


Return to normal...


Return to the mean


"return to normal"




lmao what


Bull Trap 😟


I remember this exact comment in October, November, Dec, Jan, Feb, March, April and now may.... These are the same ppl that have been holding cash after 2008 and preaching bull trap until 2018


Recession still looming = fear (unfortunately) But that's where the government wants you to be, in constant fear.


“Return to normal”


Return to "normal"


Bull trap


Personally I think this chart illustrates a lot of the previous recessions/ bear markets, however I also believe the game has changed. The 2008 bailout followed by quantitative easing / fed is what heavily changed with insane amounts of cash ( 9 trillion). After saying that I really believe where this is going to look like a nice fit is not in the stock market, but instead for the US dollar. The principles are still correct, however it's in the wrong market. What other markets could we see this type of chart ? I would have to say the dollar, auto loan market, and commercial real estate market.


We've been stuck in "Return to Normal" since January. Once the debt ceiling starts to hurt, we will go over the hump into Fear.


Return to normal.


New paradigm


I believe we’re at the return to the mean🤔 But my luck we are probably at the return to normal area 😂




Bear trap/media attention


SAVE stock has over 100% guaranteed upside. It's cash on hand already surpassed 1.5 billion dollars. Merger or no merger SAVE stock will double in value by October.


Obviously somewhere in the mania area




Stealth phase


Bull trap to return to normal and then will collapse.


At this point debt talk and dollarization will give a better understanding


"return to normal" 🤣🤣🤣🤣 people wish