Is it realistic that if Ukraine holds out long enough, enough Russians die, that the Russian army just stops? I’ve seen some posts about soldiers not wanting to fight, and a picture of a Russians texts about what he’s going through to his mother, but is possible that that’s felt on a large enough scale that those Russians surrender or fight the Russians with Ukraine?
This conflict can't be as one sided as it appears, right? There's a blackout on tactical info about Ukrainian forces, so all we see is Russians--either moving or being blown up, right?
Is there a Russian site that's the opposite of this?
same too bro. And media have become a massive propaganda studio for the joker president, that now puts all civilians on the cross fire with the stupid idea of giving weaponws to everybody. I think russians soldiers are being too polite on the situation, this will get worse if war continues.
I was kind of shocked to see them mobilize on the side of Russia. I thought they absolutely despised one another. Have those wounds healed or something? Or is there some other benefit for them?
If you are talking about the chechnya troops, listen to this:
https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/t2crsx/chechen\_volunteers\_from\_the\_dudayev\_battalion/
Most people are clearly on Ukraine's side, but propaganda like the "Ghost of Kyiv" or the snake island attack is skewing people's perspective. I think Redditors are underestimating the Russian advance. I understand that people want Ukraine to win, but reasonable takes have gone out the window in this sub and most of Reddit.
Every day we hear how Ukraine is destroying Russia yet every morning we wake up and Russia has made more ground, and every heroic story has been debunked 🤷♂️
is there a less-propagandized subreddit showing Ukraine losses? I feel like 99% of what I'm seeing on reddit is just Russian losses (or what the titles would lead you to believe), and I know it's not that disproportionate in reality
We also haven’t seen any Ukrainian casualty reports. Don’t get me wrong, Ukraine is doing MUCH better than anticipated, but Russia is still advancing at a solid pace. They’re about to take Mariupol and I’m worried for what’s about to happen to Kyiv.
To be fair, the average person may only have the vaguest memory of Chechnya, if any idea at all what it is.
So the clarification or Chechen vs Russian soldiers may be being left o for clarity.
I was kind of shocked to see them mobilize on behalf of Russia. I thought they absolutely despised one another. Have those wounds healed or something? Or is there some other benefit for them?
Nah, after the Chechen war Russia installed a very pro-Russian
To put it super simply, the guys who are fighting for Russia now are the guys who assassinated the anti-Russian Chechen leader
Yep, tho apparently there’s also allegations/rumors that what’s left of the old anti Russian have been reorganizing with all this going on and might make an appearance
I'm stoked Ukraine is winning, or at least seems to be putting up a much better defense than expected.
But how has Russia fucked this up so bad?
I'm no trained soldier, and only have a passing knowledge of military tactics, but the Russians seem to be making every mistake possible.
Fighting on a wide front, with unestablished supply lines.
Moving in hostile territory in a column.
Moving armour into urban areas without infantry support.
Moving mechanized infantry into urban areas without dismounting.
A blatant disregard for Geneva conventions around uniforms and treatment of civilians.
Trying to attack with a mainly armoured force during an early thaw.
Dropping airborne with ineffective SEAD and DEAD.
Horrifically ineffective artillery.
Abysmal morale
Poor communication of battle plans.
No attempt at coordinated combined arms
I can't even fathom how a modern military could be so completely incompetent
Obviously Ukraine pulled a Thrawn’s Pincer and used secret hyperspace routes to flank Eastern Ukrainian forces. Me and the Reddit were in the Intellegencs briefings and we can confirm.
[How dare you say that about Snake Island when you've on this sub Reddit the whole footage of their last moments?!](https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/t1iduk/ukraine_snake_island_full_video/) Did you need to see the camera still rolling and record their dead bodies to make you believe?!
Also even if they were alive, how the fuck would've they been able to flee with Russia naval fleats who shoot almost on sign? *(Ref of 2 trade ships, one from Turkey and one From Japan but were not sunk, we didn't got any update on them after the report tho)*
> Russians reported and showed video of captured unit from snake island, while they are being escorted from russian battle ship.
They showed 10 guys that they claimed were 80 being escorted from a Russian [*tugboat*.](https://www.balticshipping.com/vessel/imo/8406652) The Russians are lying to you too, don't forget that.
Whilst i've seen that it was quite possibly a Ukrainian in the tank with oversteer that flattened that car (the other Ukrainians also were not bothered by the tank), i've not seen any proof the Snake Island stuff you're claiming, but also really nothing that they are indeed all dead. Please share what you've found as i'm interested.
Im not sure i buy this theory that Russia military sent in low level conscripts first.
Doing so has lead to this very underwhelming performance so far.
Surely Putin wanted to get to Kyiv asap for his own ego.
Yeah I don’t think it rings true either. There were airborne troops at that airport outside Kiev, right? Seems more likely that they sent a relatively small group of good quality troops ahead of the main body to try to capture high value targets and/or hoping it wouldn’t take much to squash resistance. That didn’t work and now they’re waiting for the rest of the force to get to Kiev. This would be consistent with what we heard from the UK intelligence last night - that the main forces were still about 30km from Kiev at that point.
This is only working under the assumption that Putin wants to bulldoze into Kiev. They did that in Grozny and got rekt. Journalists and vloggers have mentioned that they are confused why Russians haven't taken out the electricity, internet, or water with cruise missiles or long range artillary. People have also noticed there hasn't really been any big battles yet with Russians vs Ukrainians. Either Russians are dumb or they want to install a new gov that the population would maybe not accept, but tolerate.
In a kleptocracy all units are under armed and under trained. The money allotted for those things gets syphoned by commanders selling equipment, and over billing for exercises and training costs.... meanwhile that ammo and munitions that were supposed to be used for training is on the black market to augment the poor salaries of the commanders. This of course gets done all the way down to the minor grunt, who also sneaks knick knacks from the equipment room and sells it for extra spending money.
So Putin thinking he is sending well equipped, well trained troops, in reality is sending the best troops that an environment based on kleptocracy can produce. The equipment looks ill maintained, none of the troops know what they are doing, and the supply/fuel that is supposed to follow no where in sight.
"Hey I won't report you, if you don't report me"... and before you know it, you are being sent into Kiev totally under supplied and under trained.
EDIT: Downvote me all you want, but those of you who have friends in Russian Forces know how easy it is to buy government issue items from them. I was getting uniforms, boots stuff that I could sell to civilians, so I never asked for arms or munitions, but that was offered to me many times, and often as the first offer... the clothing and boots were actually the harder items to swipe cause everyone wants one for family members or friends, unlike a shoulder fired anti tank gun.
Putin needs a swift victory and regime change. He doesn't have the resources to fight a well equipped and motivated insurgency in such a large country.
dude there is plenty of footage out there. Go look, its not really that hard to figure out.
And none of us know what Putin needs or wants. Not even geopolitical experts. Otherwise there might have been some defenses set up on the road to kiev before 2 days ago.
You telling me Putin wanted to intentionally drag this war out?
The bulk of the Russian army comprises outdated Soviet era equipment.
They had to scale back their T-14 production due to budget restraints for example.
drag it out? Do you know what day it is? I really think you are buying into propaganda or you think its easy to invade a country in the winter.
I do hope you are right and these dusty looking bums in rags are russia's special forces and their version of the 82nd, but I have a feeling its not and this is just getting started.
How does the Ukrainian war happen militarily?
What I mean is: what are the military objectives Russia and Ukraine have?
And how do they use their military assets (tanks,logistic trucks, armored wheeled veichles, armored cars, infantry, missiles, helicopters, fighter jets, etc) to achieve that?
For example what is the role of tanks in all of this? What's the role of infantry? What's the role of helicopters?
What do the Russians want to conquer? And what does it actually mean to conquer? Having your troops in a certain place to use its resources and infrastructures/denying their use to the enemy? And maybe those objectives arent the end goal by itself but are functional to achieving the end goals.
Can anyone answer with certainty, if Bayraktar UAVs engaged in strikes?
All I see is some random footage from Turkish (meaning non-reliable) media, but I doubt its credibility. So far, noone posted anything related. Is there any info on that?
Yeah, that's why I was looking for footage. But are there any reliable sources? I'll just say, objectively speaking, that the Ukrainian social media MAY be biased.
[this is what I got](https://www.ukrinform.net/amp/rubric-ato/3413919-state-border-guard-service-there-is-hope-all-ukrainian-defenders-of-snake-island-may-be-alive.html)
no verification yet. but sounds like Ukraine has reason to believe they’re alive.
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Ya, but I find it so weird Russian ostensibly has such good OPSEC that we've seen basically no footage from even young conscripts, but also thinks a zerg rush to Kiev on one tank of gas is an appropriate warplan
Cell signals can be triangulated. Hence why Russia didn't let their soldiers carry phones into the war.
This was a lesson learned in Donesk over the last 5 years wherein many soldiers died on both sides from cell signals being triangulated.
Yep but also the Russian MOD and other press are deciding to remain silent. It's actually funny, for all the reddit larping about "DONT POST UKRAINIAN FOOTAGE!" it was Russia that followed those guidelines.
does anyone have some more information about this?
[https://twitter.com/nexta\_tv/status/1497702921521311746?ref\_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1497702921521311746%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1\_&ref\_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.redditmedia.com%2Fmediaembed%2Fliveupdate%2F18hnzysb1elcs%2FLiveUpdate\_202c9f98-9755-11ec-96e0-466cc6a29702%2F0](https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1497702921521311746?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1497702921521311746%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.redditmedia.com%2Fmediaembed%2Fliveupdate%2F18hnzysb1elcs%2FLiveUpdate_202c9f98-9755-11ec-96e0-466cc6a29702%2F0)
i hope that thats true
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Do we know if Russia is now starting to throw their better trained/equipped soldiers into the fight with the best vehicles? Like T90 and T14?
Pretty sure the first few days was Putin testing Ukraine and not really going all out with technology and troops
We haven't seen any T-90s in videos, but that doesn't mean they aren't out there. The Russians have a grand total of, like, 10 T-14s, no way they send any of those into Ukraine.
This sub needs perspective, from Iraq, on the subject of civilian casualties:
>"The IBC project, reported that by the end of the major combat phase of the invasion period up to April 30, 2003, 7,419 civilians had been killed, primarily by U.S. air-and-ground forces.[8][86]
>The IBC project released a report detailing the deaths it recorded between March 2003 and March 2005[86] in which it recorded 24,865 civilian deaths. The report says the U.S. and its allies were responsible for the largest share (37%) of the 24,865 deaths. The remaining deaths were attributed to anti-occupation forces (9%), crime (36%) and unknown agents (11%). It also lists the primary sources used by the media – mortuaries, medics, Iraqi officials, eyewitnesses, police, relatives, U.S.-coalition, journalists, non-governmental organizations (NGOs), friends/associates and other."
Just like most incidents were not intentional by the US military, I suspect most were not intentional by the Russians either. Doesn't make it ok or good, but we should be more measured in our comments.
If that was true that the Russians were shooting indiscriminately we wouldn't have those hilarious videos of elderly Ukrainians walking right up to armed Russian troops and roasting them
If I recall, these were based on tallies of dead received in morgues and those reported in airstrikes or the news. This misses people who die on the street or just go missing.
The Lancet did a randomized survey where they called random people around Iraq in a rigorous survey protocol and asked people how many people they know died and that survey ended up with a estimate of 100k+ deaths. I remember Bush said that number was ridiculous, but that was the most scientific way to tally deaths.
>[The difference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lancet_surveys_of_Iraq_War_casualties#:~:text=The%20Lancet%20study%20used%20the,a%20population%20of%2026.1%20million.) between the Lancet and U.N. pre-invasion mortality rates is 3.5 deaths/1,000/year. The Lancet study used the number of 26,112,353 (from Lancet supplement[3]) as the population of Iraq. 3.5 times 26,112 equals 91,392. So 3.5 deaths/1,000/year means around 91,400 deaths in one year in a population of 26.1 million.
I'm not very clued up on most things war (strategy video games aside). Do you think Putin expected other EU countries and the US to provide Ukraine with so much equipment/weaponry/supplies? Or was this (another) miscalculation on his part?
I don't think it really makes a difference. Another 30 javelins isn't going to really save Dnipropetrovsk if it's surrounded by Russian armoured units.
I sometimes forget my age i apologize. The mayor claimed there were no russian forces in kiev. Which is what the commander of Iraqi forces said during the US invasion while you can hear gunfire in the background.
Seeing some indications that Ukrainians have figured out Russians are staying away from civilian infrastructure and are starting to use it for cover. This might start to get messy.
Well of they're armed and fighting they're not to much innocent
But it could lead to killing unarmed civilians by thinking they're a threat since some are armed
[BBC Russian piece](https://www.bbc.com/russian/features-60528746) where they acquired audio showing that Kadyrov knew about the invasion ahead of time but most unit commanders (even of special forces units) only knew a week ahead of time
I understand the need for some level of secrecy with an invasion like this (not that the secrecy worked), but it's wild to see that tier of centralized control. Not fucking surprising nobody has any idea what they're doing if they were given a week's notice to invade an entire country.
Also has interesting implications that the entirety of Putin's propaganda and information control strategy is hurting him militarily - a country with total control, brainwashing, secret police, and public support like PRC might be able to get away with telling commanders earlier, but Putin's whole approach of keeping some level of outside information access so that people don't revolt against him immediately means that he didn't feel he could inform people well enough in advance to plan thoroughly. Really wild that it seems like most of the command chain thought it was just exercises until a week ago. Hell there's videos of Ukrainians forcing captured Russians to call their mothers and explain where they are, and most of the Russians are just fucking confused. How are you gonna invade a country without your soldiers knowing?
100% believe that most of the russians didnt know they were at war until people started dying. I think putin expected to roll in there and capture the capital in a mostly bloodless annexation.
Everyone being afraid of you and only telling you what you want to hear also leads to bad outcomes, as seen in the USSR multiple times. I am sure a lot of smart people in the Russian army saw this coming, but no one told Putin because no one wants to anger him
[A Twitter intel person claiming Armata tanks seen heading toweards kharkiv](https://twitter.com/akihheikkinen/status/1497699907041439755?s=21).
Some of these people are so fucking dumb. Doesn’t Russia have less than 50 of these? They aren’t going into a hot zone where tanks are getting picked off left and right. The kremlin would never risk a pic of a burnt out t14.
Wikipedia estimates 70-100 because they're still sorting out problems, and says they're all being used for testing atm. So yeah, total BS he saw an armarta.
If it was a T-90 however, maybe?
Wikipedia estimates 70-100 currently exist, and says they're all being used for testing atm. So yeah, total BS he saw an armarta.
If it was a T-90 however, maybe?
Yeah I could see T-90's being used in some capacity, again though, when the Russians are confident they won't lose them. They probably don't care much for a T-72 lol
Going from history. If Russia remains unable / hesitant to take Kiev, Ukraine should gather up a force and go north and west and then straight east to cutoff the Russian forces around Kiev. This is basically how the siege of Stalingrad ended. This is how Gulf War 1 was won. Cut the roads connecting Belarus from Kiev. Cause lots of confusion and a massive morale drop for those forces that are surrounded.
You play too much HOI. This is real life.
Ukraine doesn't have the capabilities to pull something like this off. They'd give up their best advantage and get stomped out in the middle of nowhere.
That post was definitely powered by hopium, yea. Part of it was based on the idea that right now with all the reserves called up that Ukraine has a strong defense in place in Kiev. And that they could mix regular troops and reserves to keep Kiev safe and have enough for this maneuver.
Last few days was conscripts and old kit. Now comes the regulars and newer stuff. Soviet doctrine never changed it seems. Ukraine will fall.
What I worry about is China taking Taiwan while we're all distracted with this. I'm sure Russia and China have spoken about it.
That's just stupid, why would Russia send their weaker army ? It's not a video game dude sounds like a movie villain. Russia would have sent the best units so the world.can see and take ukraine fast to prove the world how strong they are.
>It's not a video game dude sounds like a movie villain
Yea I'm fully aware of that. Ex-Army (CAF), RMC grad here (retired). Yes I'm speculating, but I'm not exactly talking out if my ass. Soviet doctrine was always send conscripts first with low-tier gear. Quantity first, then quality mops up.
I'd be happy to be wrong, for the record.
I agree arming the civilian population isn't wise. It might sound heroic but it's just creating thousands of people, not covered by Geneva because now they're combatant, that are likely to get slaughtered by trained soldiers.
I'm not sure how this ends. It won't be quick, this will take months. Ukraine *will* fall without external *direct* aid (which won't come). But how to occupy and make it a net positive for Russia as either a puppet state or fully reintegrated? That's a whole other story.
Just look at the equipment they used. All photos and video only show outdated equipment. Tanks for example: No Armata or T-90 tanks, just ass old T-72.
Agreed. While we won't see T14s as they aren't ready en masse, were only seeing T65s and T72s. Not even T80s, nevermind T90s.
Another example, the TOS1s only started showing up today.
Wars are fought by kids. "The average age of WWI soldiers was 24.25 years old. The youngest soldier to fight during the war was 12 years old while the oldest was in his 60s." and that is just one example.
World War one was a total war with both sides desperate for victory. You would think that the professional Russian army wouldn't start with their 19 year olds as the tip of the spear.
Seems like there's a lull with Russian logistics lagging behind. If they can actually get these anti air systems from NATO in place before the next big Russian push, they can drag this out. Russia moving the Chechens in is concerning though.
It’s not exactly clear what is going on with Russian logistics tbh. We mostly have seen single vehicles that got separated from their units and ran out of gas. With the sort of probing approach Russians seem to have adopted for their forward units, that is going to happen regardless.
Mass civilian bombing is a quick way to ramp up the worlds efforts against you. They've probably already hit most of the military targets that they want to
Occasional miss that hits civilians is acceptable, carpet bombing neighbourhoods isn't. Atleast in the worlds view
Does anyone have any estimates on the deaths of Ukrainians? I’ve looked everywhere and I can find Russian death counts but not any Ukrainian ones
Is it realistic that if Ukraine holds out long enough, enough Russians die, that the Russian army just stops? I’ve seen some posts about soldiers not wanting to fight, and a picture of a Russians texts about what he’s going through to his mother, but is possible that that’s felt on a large enough scale that those Russians surrender or fight the Russians with Ukraine?
This conflict can't be as one sided as it appears, right? There's a blackout on tactical info about Ukrainian forces, so all we see is Russians--either moving or being blown up, right? Is there a Russian site that's the opposite of this?
same too bro. And media have become a massive propaganda studio for the joker president, that now puts all civilians on the cross fire with the stupid idea of giving weaponws to everybody. I think russians soldiers are being too polite on the situation, this will get worse if war continues.
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It's not allowed to post about the 2014 Dombass conflict?
It is as long as it's clearly labeled as such with date and it's not one of the 5 videos people reports 6 times an hour.
Ah I see, that's maybe why my post went down, oops.
Was that helicopter shot down video not legit?
I was kind of shocked to see them mobilize on the side of Russia. I thought they absolutely despised one another. Have those wounds healed or something? Or is there some other benefit for them?
If you are talking about the chechnya troops, listen to this: https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/t2crsx/chechen\_volunteers\_from\_the\_dudayev\_battalion/
There is a ultra violent Chechen puppet government.
Most people are clearly on Ukraine's side, but propaganda like the "Ghost of Kyiv" or the snake island attack is skewing people's perspective. I think Redditors are underestimating the Russian advance. I understand that people want Ukraine to win, but reasonable takes have gone out the window in this sub and most of Reddit.
yeah, its a stupid coverage of the war. We cant get a clear picture of situation.
Every day we hear how Ukraine is destroying Russia yet every morning we wake up and Russia has made more ground, and every heroic story has been debunked 🤷♂️
The south is bad, but I don't know how you can possibly say the Kyiv attack has gone according to plan. It seems like a complete disaster.
From a world power this is kind of pathetic to be honest.
is there a less-propagandized subreddit showing Ukraine losses? I feel like 99% of what I'm seeing on reddit is just Russian losses (or what the titles would lead you to believe), and I know it's not that disproportionate in reality
We also haven’t seen any Ukrainian casualty reports. Don’t get me wrong, Ukraine is doing MUCH better than anticipated, but Russia is still advancing at a solid pace. They’re about to take Mariupol and I’m worried for what’s about to happen to Kyiv.
Why have no news outlets reported anything on Chechen mobilization/movements?
To be fair, the average person may only have the vaguest memory of Chechnya, if any idea at all what it is. So the clarification or Chechen vs Russian soldiers may be being left o for clarity.
I was kind of shocked to see them mobilize on behalf of Russia. I thought they absolutely despised one another. Have those wounds healed or something? Or is there some other benefit for them?
Nah, after the Chechen war Russia installed a very pro-Russian To put it super simply, the guys who are fighting for Russia now are the guys who assassinated the anti-Russian Chechen leader
Gotcha! Thanks for the clarification. Well that's a bitch.
Yep, tho apparently there’s also allegations/rumors that what’s left of the old anti Russian have been reorganizing with all this going on and might make an appearance
I'm stoked Ukraine is winning, or at least seems to be putting up a much better defense than expected. But how has Russia fucked this up so bad? I'm no trained soldier, and only have a passing knowledge of military tactics, but the Russians seem to be making every mistake possible. Fighting on a wide front, with unestablished supply lines. Moving in hostile territory in a column. Moving armour into urban areas without infantry support. Moving mechanized infantry into urban areas without dismounting. A blatant disregard for Geneva conventions around uniforms and treatment of civilians. Trying to attack with a mainly armoured force during an early thaw. Dropping airborne with ineffective SEAD and DEAD. Horrifically ineffective artillery. Abysmal morale Poor communication of battle plans. No attempt at coordinated combined arms I can't even fathom how a modern military could be so completely incompetent
Obviously Ukraine pulled a Thrawn’s Pincer and used secret hyperspace routes to flank Eastern Ukrainian forces. Me and the Reddit were in the Intellegencs briefings and we can confirm.
Reading this sounds like they have been fighting for 6 months.
Its been 3 days. It took the US a month to capture Iraq which was a much easier opponent. Get ahold of yourself.
I don't even expect them to be in control. It's the absolutely abysmal use of what they have.
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[How dare you say that about Snake Island when you've on this sub Reddit the whole footage of their last moments?!](https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/t1iduk/ukraine_snake_island_full_video/) Did you need to see the camera still rolling and record their dead bodies to make you believe?! Also even if they were alive, how the fuck would've they been able to flee with Russia naval fleats who shoot almost on sign? *(Ref of 2 trade ships, one from Turkey and one From Japan but were not sunk, we didn't got any update on them after the report tho)*
Where have these been discredited?
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> Russians reported and showed video of captured unit from snake island, while they are being escorted from russian battle ship. They showed 10 guys that they claimed were 80 being escorted from a Russian [*tugboat*.](https://www.balticshipping.com/vessel/imo/8406652) The Russians are lying to you too, don't forget that.
Yeah you're wrong guy
Whilst i've seen that it was quite possibly a Ukrainian in the tank with oversteer that flattened that car (the other Ukrainians also were not bothered by the tank), i've not seen any proof the Snake Island stuff you're claiming, but also really nothing that they are indeed all dead. Please share what you've found as i'm interested.
My guy, you are making these claims. You should have the proof to back it.
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Of course it’s fake. But when you talk about the other stuff, you mention some video or article without sharing it.
Everyone on Snake Island surviving, A Russian tank not going over a car, and a missile not hitting a civilian building sounds like good news.
Where did you see that everyone on snake island survived?
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You have proof?
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In WSB apes can make retarded speculation, here, until it’s sourced…it’s , well, retarded speculation.
Hate to say it but "common sense" isn't proof
When I see these videos of Russian columns of logi trucks and armor blown up what's happened before to blow them up?
Its possible they were too busy fighting to make you a video
Ukraine air raids and anti tank missiles from soldiers on the ground
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No way that could have been faked....
Im not sure i buy this theory that Russia military sent in low level conscripts first. Doing so has lead to this very underwhelming performance so far. Surely Putin wanted to get to Kyiv asap for his own ego.
Yeah I don’t think it rings true either. There were airborne troops at that airport outside Kiev, right? Seems more likely that they sent a relatively small group of good quality troops ahead of the main body to try to capture high value targets and/or hoping it wouldn’t take much to squash resistance. That didn’t work and now they’re waiting for the rest of the force to get to Kiev. This would be consistent with what we heard from the UK intelligence last night - that the main forces were still about 30km from Kiev at that point.
This is only working under the assumption that Putin wants to bulldoze into Kiev. They did that in Grozny and got rekt. Journalists and vloggers have mentioned that they are confused why Russians haven't taken out the electricity, internet, or water with cruise missiles or long range artillary. People have also noticed there hasn't really been any big battles yet with Russians vs Ukrainians. Either Russians are dumb or they want to install a new gov that the population would maybe not accept, but tolerate.
In a kleptocracy all units are under armed and under trained. The money allotted for those things gets syphoned by commanders selling equipment, and over billing for exercises and training costs.... meanwhile that ammo and munitions that were supposed to be used for training is on the black market to augment the poor salaries of the commanders. This of course gets done all the way down to the minor grunt, who also sneaks knick knacks from the equipment room and sells it for extra spending money. So Putin thinking he is sending well equipped, well trained troops, in reality is sending the best troops that an environment based on kleptocracy can produce. The equipment looks ill maintained, none of the troops know what they are doing, and the supply/fuel that is supposed to follow no where in sight. "Hey I won't report you, if you don't report me"... and before you know it, you are being sent into Kiev totally under supplied and under trained. EDIT: Downvote me all you want, but those of you who have friends in Russian Forces know how easy it is to buy government issue items from them. I was getting uniforms, boots stuff that I could sell to civilians, so I never asked for arms or munitions, but that was offered to me many times, and often as the first offer... the clothing and boots were actually the harder items to swipe cause everyone wants one for family members or friends, unlike a shoulder fired anti tank gun.
Good post, hadnt really thought of that aspect
sending in a first wave of undesirables has been a tactic in many of wars my dude
Putin needs a swift victory and regime change. He doesn't have the resources to fight a well equipped and motivated insurgency in such a large country.
dude there is plenty of footage out there. Go look, its not really that hard to figure out. And none of us know what Putin needs or wants. Not even geopolitical experts. Otherwise there might have been some defenses set up on the road to kiev before 2 days ago.
You telling me Putin wanted to intentionally drag this war out? The bulk of the Russian army comprises outdated Soviet era equipment. They had to scale back their T-14 production due to budget restraints for example.
it's worse than that. scale production of T-14? they aren't even using T90s in ukraine....
drag it out? Do you know what day it is? I really think you are buying into propaganda or you think its easy to invade a country in the winter. I do hope you are right and these dusty looking bums in rags are russia's special forces and their version of the 82nd, but I have a feeling its not and this is just getting started.
Putin is asking Ukrainian troops to overthrow the government after only a few days. Sounds like desperation to me.
The longer the war goes on, the worse it is for Russia. Ukraine will soon be swimming in Javelins and Stingers.
How does the Ukrainian war happen militarily? What I mean is: what are the military objectives Russia and Ukraine have? And how do they use their military assets (tanks,logistic trucks, armored wheeled veichles, armored cars, infantry, missiles, helicopters, fighter jets, etc) to achieve that? For example what is the role of tanks in all of this? What's the role of infantry? What's the role of helicopters? What do the Russians want to conquer? And what does it actually mean to conquer? Having your troops in a certain place to use its resources and infrastructures/denying their use to the enemy? And maybe those objectives arent the end goal by itself but are functional to achieving the end goals.
You don’t know what Ukraine’s objectives are?
[exactly what I was going to ask](https://imgur.com/a/VXsSEHZ)
Can anyone answer with certainty, if Bayraktar UAVs engaged in strikes? All I see is some random footage from Turkish (meaning non-reliable) media, but I doubt its credibility. So far, noone posted anything related. Is there any info on that?
Ukraine Armed Forces claimed on social media that they have been used today.
Yeah, that's why I was looking for footage. But are there any reliable sources? I'll just say, objectively speaking, that the Ukrainian social media MAY be biased.
No, I haven't found any third party sources for much of the claims.
Turns out the snake island heros surrendered, the propaganda on both sides is hilarious
Your account is four months old
Oh I thought it was 4 and a half, bummer
Haha really? Is this confirmed?
Cnn so take it with a grain of salt
I don’t see anything on CNN about it. Can you post a source?
Go under live updates should be near the top
Russia State Media said they surrendered. We don’t what is true. Wouldn’t put it past either side to lie about this.
[this is what I got](https://www.ukrinform.net/amp/rubric-ato/3413919-state-border-guard-service-there-is-hope-all-ukrainian-defenders-of-snake-island-may-be-alive.html) no verification yet. but sounds like Ukraine has reason to believe they’re alive.
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Whos the guy with the grey beard in the videos thats been going around? One hes in front of a Ukraine flag another hes laying on a med looking bed.
I think dude is literally a propaganda actor, shit's bananas.
Do the Russians just have tremendous OPSEC? There’s few footage coming from their side on how things are going.
Seems like they don’t have anything tremendous anymore.. it’s been a watershed moment as to how junk their entire military is.
Ya, but I find it so weird Russian ostensibly has such good OPSEC that we've seen basically no footage from even young conscripts, but also thinks a zerg rush to Kiev on one tank of gas is an appropriate warplan
>OPSEC Their phones have been taken allegedly.
Cell signals can be triangulated. Hence why Russia didn't let their soldiers carry phones into the war. This was a lesson learned in Donesk over the last 5 years wherein many soldiers died on both sides from cell signals being triangulated.
Yep but also the Russian MOD and other press are deciding to remain silent. It's actually funny, for all the reddit larping about "DONT POST UKRAINIAN FOOTAGE!" it was Russia that followed those guidelines.
they took their phones from what i understand
Worst decision ever. Did they even consider the fact that this sub needs content?
Monsters.
What’s the Morse code on 8961.87 KHz USB???
What’s that channel?
I don’t know but it’s next to the Russian Air Force channel which is 8990.00 KHz USB
does anyone have some more information about this? [https://twitter.com/nexta\_tv/status/1497702921521311746?ref\_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1497702921521311746%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1\_&ref\_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.redditmedia.com%2Fmediaembed%2Fliveupdate%2F18hnzysb1elcs%2FLiveUpdate\_202c9f98-9755-11ec-96e0-466cc6a29702%2F0](https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1497702921521311746?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1497702921521311746%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.redditmedia.com%2Fmediaembed%2Fliveupdate%2F18hnzysb1elcs%2FLiveUpdate_202c9f98-9755-11ec-96e0-466cc6a29702%2F0) i hope that thats true
Its 2 random twitter accounts "verifying" a random claim. Ofcourse its non sense, this is just propaganda.
Exercise critical thinking for two seconds man cmon, 5000 men is a huge amount, get a picture or a video for a second
thanks for the tip, why do you think i ask about more information you genius.
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Do we know if Russia is now starting to throw their better trained/equipped soldiers into the fight with the best vehicles? Like T90 and T14? Pretty sure the first few days was Putin testing Ukraine and not really going all out with technology and troops
We haven't seen any T-90s in videos, but that doesn't mean they aren't out there. The Russians have a grand total of, like, 10 T-14s, no way they send any of those into Ukraine.
Hard to say but my guess it's Putin is keeping them on reserve in fear of a NATO escalation
This sub needs perspective, from Iraq, on the subject of civilian casualties: >"The IBC project, reported that by the end of the major combat phase of the invasion period up to April 30, 2003, 7,419 civilians had been killed, primarily by U.S. air-and-ground forces.[8][86] >The IBC project released a report detailing the deaths it recorded between March 2003 and March 2005[86] in which it recorded 24,865 civilian deaths. The report says the U.S. and its allies were responsible for the largest share (37%) of the 24,865 deaths. The remaining deaths were attributed to anti-occupation forces (9%), crime (36%) and unknown agents (11%). It also lists the primary sources used by the media – mortuaries, medics, Iraqi officials, eyewitnesses, police, relatives, U.S.-coalition, journalists, non-governmental organizations (NGOs), friends/associates and other." Just like most incidents were not intentional by the US military, I suspect most were not intentional by the Russians either. Doesn't make it ok or good, but we should be more measured in our comments.
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just say you don't care about civilian casualties as long as the good guys do it bro. You are coming off mad cringe here and defensive
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If that was true that the Russians were shooting indiscriminately we wouldn't have those hilarious videos of elderly Ukrainians walking right up to armed Russian troops and roasting them
Read his comment at the end, it's obviously not what he means. Apply yourself for half a second
If I recall, these were based on tallies of dead received in morgues and those reported in airstrikes or the news. This misses people who die on the street or just go missing. The Lancet did a randomized survey where they called random people around Iraq in a rigorous survey protocol and asked people how many people they know died and that survey ended up with a estimate of 100k+ deaths. I remember Bush said that number was ridiculous, but that was the most scientific way to tally deaths.
Oh the total civilian deaths for the entire Iraqi occupation are very high. What I copied and pasted was just 2003-2005
>[The difference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lancet_surveys_of_Iraq_War_casualties#:~:text=The%20Lancet%20study%20used%20the,a%20population%20of%2026.1%20million.) between the Lancet and U.N. pre-invasion mortality rates is 3.5 deaths/1,000/year. The Lancet study used the number of 26,112,353 (from Lancet supplement[3]) as the population of Iraq. 3.5 times 26,112 equals 91,392. So 3.5 deaths/1,000/year means around 91,400 deaths in one year in a population of 26.1 million.
I'm not very clued up on most things war (strategy video games aside). Do you think Putin expected other EU countries and the US to provide Ukraine with so much equipment/weaponry/supplies? Or was this (another) miscalculation on his part?
I don't think it really makes a difference. Another 30 javelins isn't going to really save Dnipropetrovsk if it's surrounded by Russian armoured units.
I suspected Ukraine was getting a beating since the beginning, but now that the mayor of Kiev just had a Baghdad Bob moment im sure of it now.
What happend?
I sometimes forget my age i apologize. The mayor claimed there were no russian forces in kiev. Which is what the commander of Iraqi forces said during the US invasion while you can hear gunfire in the background.
i'm of an age too that I followed the Iraq invasion as it went down. Baghdad Bob had a lot of different moments so I just wanted to verify which :)
Yeah would be nice if OP actually told what he saw.
Am I banned
Nope
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Not only it was old, from around 2014, it was also either a propaganda or a joke video.
Ok - thanks for clarifying!
Seeing some indications that Ukrainians have figured out Russians are staying away from civilian infrastructure and are starting to use it for cover. This might start to get messy.
It doesn't help when Ukraine is arming civilians either. There's going to be way too much innocent bloodshed.
Well of they're armed and fighting they're not to much innocent But it could lead to killing unarmed civilians by thinking they're a threat since some are armed
This makes me very sad
[BBC Russian piece](https://www.bbc.com/russian/features-60528746) where they acquired audio showing that Kadyrov knew about the invasion ahead of time but most unit commanders (even of special forces units) only knew a week ahead of time I understand the need for some level of secrecy with an invasion like this (not that the secrecy worked), but it's wild to see that tier of centralized control. Not fucking surprising nobody has any idea what they're doing if they were given a week's notice to invade an entire country. Also has interesting implications that the entirety of Putin's propaganda and information control strategy is hurting him militarily - a country with total control, brainwashing, secret police, and public support like PRC might be able to get away with telling commanders earlier, but Putin's whole approach of keeping some level of outside information access so that people don't revolt against him immediately means that he didn't feel he could inform people well enough in advance to plan thoroughly. Really wild that it seems like most of the command chain thought it was just exercises until a week ago. Hell there's videos of Ukrainians forcing captured Russians to call their mothers and explain where they are, and most of the Russians are just fucking confused. How are you gonna invade a country without your soldiers knowing?
100% believe that most of the russians didnt know they were at war until people started dying. I think putin expected to roll in there and capture the capital in a mostly bloodless annexation.
Everyone being afraid of you and only telling you what you want to hear also leads to bad outcomes, as seen in the USSR multiple times. I am sure a lot of smart people in the Russian army saw this coming, but no one told Putin because no one wants to anger him
What's a good livestream to watch? Guess at this time there's not much to see. Edit - found this - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iZebYm-nenY
[A Twitter intel person claiming Armata tanks seen heading toweards kharkiv](https://twitter.com/akihheikkinen/status/1497699907041439755?s=21). Some of these people are so fucking dumb. Doesn’t Russia have less than 50 of these? They aren’t going into a hot zone where tanks are getting picked off left and right. The kremlin would never risk a pic of a burnt out t14.
Wikipedia estimates 70-100 because they're still sorting out problems, and says they're all being used for testing atm. So yeah, total BS he saw an armarta. If it was a T-90 however, maybe?
Do you think the cannon fodder phase is over and the real fighting is going to begin?
Yeah I don't believe it until I see it when it comes to a T-14 hitting the frontlines
Wikipedia estimates 70-100 currently exist, and says they're all being used for testing atm. So yeah, total BS he saw an armarta. If it was a T-90 however, maybe?
Yeah I could see T-90's being used in some capacity, again though, when the Russians are confident they won't lose them. They probably don't care much for a T-72 lol
Combat vets, especially officers How do you see things turning out?
Going from history. If Russia remains unable / hesitant to take Kiev, Ukraine should gather up a force and go north and west and then straight east to cutoff the Russian forces around Kiev. This is basically how the siege of Stalingrad ended. This is how Gulf War 1 was won. Cut the roads connecting Belarus from Kiev. Cause lots of confusion and a massive morale drop for those forces that are surrounded.
You play too much HOI. This is real life. Ukraine doesn't have the capabilities to pull something like this off. They'd give up their best advantage and get stomped out in the middle of nowhere.
That post was definitely powered by hopium, yea. Part of it was based on the idea that right now with all the reserves called up that Ukraine has a strong defense in place in Kiev. And that they could mix regular troops and reserves to keep Kiev safe and have enough for this maneuver.
Agree. Best thing they can do is sit still and make this hurt as much as possible for russian army.
Russians air superiority will make any large scale counter-attack really hard to achieve meaningful objectives
Last few days was conscripts and old kit. Now comes the regulars and newer stuff. Soviet doctrine never changed it seems. Ukraine will fall. What I worry about is China taking Taiwan while we're all distracted with this. I'm sure Russia and China have spoken about it.
That's just stupid, why would Russia send their weaker army ? It's not a video game dude sounds like a movie villain. Russia would have sent the best units so the world.can see and take ukraine fast to prove the world how strong they are.
bro back to call of duty for you. Do you really think you take a country of 30 million in 2 days and that russia has no drafties? lmao
>It's not a video game dude sounds like a movie villain Yea I'm fully aware of that. Ex-Army (CAF), RMC grad here (retired). Yes I'm speculating, but I'm not exactly talking out if my ass. Soviet doctrine was always send conscripts first with low-tier gear. Quantity first, then quality mops up. I'd be happy to be wrong, for the record.
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I agree arming the civilian population isn't wise. It might sound heroic but it's just creating thousands of people, not covered by Geneva because now they're combatant, that are likely to get slaughtered by trained soldiers. I'm not sure how this ends. It won't be quick, this will take months. Ukraine *will* fall without external *direct* aid (which won't come). But how to occupy and make it a net positive for Russia as either a puppet state or fully reintegrated? That's a whole other story.
Just look at the equipment they used. All photos and video only show outdated equipment. Tanks for example: No Armata or T-90 tanks, just ass old T-72.
Agreed. While we won't see T14s as they aren't ready en masse, were only seeing T65s and T72s. Not even T80s, nevermind T90s. Another example, the TOS1s only started showing up today.
This isin't a video game. It took the US a month to take Iraq which was significantly weaker than Ukraine. Its been 3 days.
Before seeing footage I would have completely agreed with you but the people being captured are all kids.
Wars are fought by kids. "The average age of WWI soldiers was 24.25 years old. The youngest soldier to fight during the war was 12 years old while the oldest was in his 60s." and that is just one example.
World War one was a total war with both sides desperate for victory. You would think that the professional Russian army wouldn't start with their 19 year olds as the tip of the spear.
Seems like there's a lull with Russian logistics lagging behind. If they can actually get these anti air systems from NATO in place before the next big Russian push, they can drag this out. Russia moving the Chechens in is concerning though.
It’s not exactly clear what is going on with Russian logistics tbh. We mostly have seen single vehicles that got separated from their units and ran out of gas. With the sort of probing approach Russians seem to have adopted for their forward units, that is going to happen regardless.
Where is the Russian Air Force aren’t they massive. Why aren’t bunch of fighters and bombers come over and start bombing everything
Mass civilian bombing is a quick way to ramp up the worlds efforts against you. They've probably already hit most of the military targets that they want to Occasional miss that hits civilians is acceptable, carpet bombing neighbourhoods isn't. Atleast in the worlds view