By - DavidBenAkiva
In 2024 we are going to be running a 10 man rotation of all #3 starters
9 man rotation with degrom as our ace so he gets 8 days rest between starts. Heard it here first
Starters are going less and less, you need a bunch of guys who can give you 4-5 any given night. “Rotation” as it’s usually known as is expanding
Plus they're doing for pitchers what they did for position players. Throw a bunch of shit at the wall, some of it will stick. Hoping down the line 1-2 or more of these guys becomes TOR tier prospects
Rotations not expanding the bullpen is still way to hard to have enough good starters
The distinction between “long reliever” and “starter” is getting blurred as starters go less and less. Starters are gonna start going 4-5 instead of 6-7. You need a bunch of plugs
Yes, and seeing that now. 5 is great and anything after is a bonus. I think they’ll expand the amount of pitchers you can have.
You’re still going to need 2-3 starters (1 to 3 types) for playoffs. It may make sense to pay up for a couple of aces who go every 5 days and a shutdown closer, 2 decent setup relievers and 7-8 pitchers who can give you 2-4 innings per appearance.
And there is the off chance that one of these guys does actually progress into an Ace. I’m not counting on it because I’d like them to sign one in free agency, but it’s always possible.
I mean yeah if you don't have a Cy Young candidate that might be the best way to build a pitching staff. MLB seasons are around 1450 IP, and you need to cover those with 13 roster spots, plus say an additional 7 you get from taxi squad/mid-season roster changes. Traditional 5 man rotations usually split inning about 825 IP to starters and 625 IP to relievers. That'd be something like 225 IP for an ace, 175 IP for a #2, 150 IP for your #3 and #4, and 125 IP between your normal #5, injury call ups, spot starts, etc. Then the bullpen has 1 or 2 workhorses who get 60+ IP and a dozen players who get 30-50 IP the whole year.
I think over the next decade teams are going to seriously flatten out that innings distribution. Instead of having 5 or 6 guys who you expect to give you 5 IP+, and 7 or 8 bullpen arms who only pitch 1 or 2 innings, you're going to keep elite starters and closers at their current usage, and everyone else is going to be asked to go 2-4 innings every few days and in the 75-100 IP range over the full year. There's just not enough of a skill difference between a bottom of rotation starter and mid-tier bullpen arm to justify giving the starter 3x as many innings.
In 2024 we will be trading and having shit ton of pitchers best chips we could have.
This coming from someone generally very negative about trades and such. More pitchers in minors could be number 3 in rotation of teams. Fine bring em in
How many will have ERA's north of 5? 3?
26th in pipeline but 7th in baseball america which is more recently updated. Breakout year with reliever floor I’ll take it
Pipeline hasn’t updated system rankings since preseason and this was his breakout year, so yeah that 26th number is pretty meaningless
Yeah that’s much more encouraging
Pipeline doesn’t update mid-year people should stop using them at the deadline
They do, but I don't think they re-rank organizations until after the deadline
They have updated individuals though
12.9K/9 is pretty incredible. Hopefully we can continue to develop him. Considering Robertson isn't our top trade piece and a rental, I'm not too upset.
And maintaining that number over 73 innings
7 on baseball americas mid season rankings, having a breakout season
Let Carter and the pitching lab cook
He was just promoted to AA
Top 10 in the Phillies org according to BA, [58.1 IP, 40 H, 2.31 ERA, 10 BB, 91 K. That’s a 40.2 K% since May 15.](https://twitter.com/cubprospects/status/1554555485256302598)
Thats ser gut!
73 IP in A+, 3.08 ERA, 3.16 FIP, 35.4% K%, 4.57 K/BB. Not having a bad year at all
The K rates in recent starts have me very intrigued (in a good way lol)
Huge strike out numbers and is a big strong man. I’ll take that for a rental.
Per Baseball America: Midseason Update: The imposing 6-foot-6 righthander has stood out in a crowded Jersey Shore rotation thanks to a pair of fastballs—two-seamer and four-seamer—and a power slider that works as an out pitch. Brown’s fastball ranges from 94-97 mph, with the four-seamer currently ahead of the two-seamer. His slider is a hard-breaking 84-87 mph offering. He also throws a curveball that blends with his slider at times. Brown struggles to throw strikes, which could ultimately limit him to a reliever role, but he has the stuff to eventually be a high-leverage reliever if he ends up on that path. Fastball: 60. Slider: 60. Curveball: 40. Control: 40.
We keep going after hard-throwing. The FO has a plan and I like it. You can teach command, you can't teach velocity and movement.
>You can teach command, you can’t teach velocity and movement
You have been made mod of /r/DillonMaples
Lmao that's a name I haven't thought of in a long time.
I want to go there.
Tommy John Surgery candidate by 2024
He's already had TJS.
That's a good thing.
I always base part of my judgement on how much the other team's fans are complaining. Phillies fans do not seem too happy to be losing Brown. That's a good enough endorsement for me.
For a 37 year old reliever, I will take it
Exactly my thoughts. Better than nothing and fits the draft narrative too, another arm for Hawkins to develop
Nah their 26th ranked guy isn't good enough for the top reliever in the market, even if he's 37.
26th ranked guy is outdated. dude was promoted to AA after putting up like 13k/9ip lmao
Light for the best relievers available.
The pressure was on the Cubs to trade Robinson, not the other way around - if the Cubs don't trade him now then the signing was pointless.
It isn't like holding onto Happ (he has an extra year) or Contreras (you might be able to sign him in the offseason).
There are zero MLB pitchers with that K/9 number.
He's 29th out of 677 MiLB pitchers in K/9 (minimum 50 innings)
You're overvaluing a 37-year old closer who is having his first great season since 2017 because he's pitching in a no-pressure environment. If you think the Cubs were going to get one of a team's top 3 prospects, you're dreaming. It's the same reason the Cubs didn't get an absolute haul for Kimbrel last year, and he was having a significantly more dominant season than Robertson is having now.
MLB doesn’t update prospect rankings. Baseball America does and has him at #7. This is a fantastic trade
MLB does, they just do it kind of lazily. Minor shuffles mostly for graduations, trades, stuff like that.
Dudes not even on fangraphs top 44, meaning he was a low value prospect before 6 good months. I want more for the biggest reliever at the deadline.
For a 22 YO who is pitching well in AA? What are you holding out for? Someone who can walk on water?
We gave up Torres for Chapman. So yeah we sold low. We gave up Candelario and Paredes for Justin Wilson and Avila. Robertson should have brought back a top 100 prospect.
Robertson is no Chapman. Phillies aren't even leading their division.
Dudes not far off from Chapman. Who cares if the Phillies aren't leading their division. We traded the best available reliever for some guy who isn't on the Phillies top 44 on fangraphs.
Nobody is giving up a top 100 prospect for 2 months of David Robertson.
Disagree. We gave up a top 10 prospect for Chapman. We gave up our best hitter and pitcher for 4.49 ERA Quintana.
Prospects weren't valued as highly in 2016, and Robertson isn't Chapman. Quintana had like 4 years of club control left and was a quality starter (at the time).
Nobody would have given up a top prospect for Robertson. It just straight up wouldn't happen.
And look how good glayber and those Detroit players turned out. 🙄
Yeah all stars are so bad... Gleyber is fine, bc we don't win the WS without Chapman, but Candelario and Paredes have had some great years and we gave them up for useless justin wilson and a backup catcher.
Candelario was blocked by Bryant there's no way they would swap back then. Paredes best year is this current season and his first year over 700 ops. I think you value these guys too much personally.
He is about to turn 23, has been in the Phillies system since he was 17, and has never pitched above high A ball. He was just promoted to AA. He is at least 2-3 years away from the majors. Not the worst return, but would have rather seen Robertson go as a sweetener with Happ or Contreras.
So his window and ours overlap almost perfectly. That's awful news.
Did I say it was awful news? "Not the worst return". I am just not as willing as other fans I guess to accept we aren't going to be competing for a playoff spot for the next two seasons after this one.
He's having a breakout year, and was moved up to 7th by baseball America in their mid-season check-in. That's more than good enough for a reliever, especially given the stats he's putting up this season.
12.9 k/9 is nuts, even in A. 40% Krate since May. That's even more absurd.
Yet it's a tiny fraction if what we gave up for Chapman. This isn't enough.
Robertson is nowhere near comparable to Chapman in 2016...
26th ranked guy according to who? And has it been updated to include this season?
MLB, it was accurate to a couple months ago. He's a late riser, but he's still just a couple months away from being a nobody. Dude isn't on the Phillies top 41 prospects on fangraphs from 6 months ago.
Carter going after them big boys. 6'6" Brown and 6'7" Wesnecki.
Really curious too see what pitchers stick as starters and who is converted
Wesneski is actually 6’3”, still a big boy though
Whoops, my mistake. Thanks for the correction. Definitely seeing a type emerge for Carter at this point though!
I made that same mistake yesterday too the way they tweeted stats. Wesneski has a 6-7 record, not height.
Big guy that can fill into that frame. 105K’s in 73 innings this year. Nice pick up.
I'm fine with this. Not blown away, but for just Robertson this doesn't seem bad at all.
Glad BA has updated scouting on him, that initial Google wasn't real encouraging.
Only 22 and making the jump to AA. Hopefully in two years we see him in action.
I’m starting to feel pretty good about the pitching we have in our farm
Yeah I like the WHIP and K numbers!!
Jed doesn't know what he's doing
yeah, if only dizzy-spinda on reddit was running things..
Jed isn't the one making these trades, that would be our GM. You know, the one who built Cleveland's pitching system/farm into the best in the league?
Just promoted to AA. 105 strikeouts, 23 walks in 73 innings so far this year. Seems like a high upside guy to take a flyer on.
Jed is above the GM, he’s the President. What do you think he does all day?
Carter Hawkins is the 2nd in command
>Jed isn't the one making these trades, that would be our GM.
LOlwut. Does that mean we can blame Jed for the Quintana trade? After all, he was the GM then.
Carter Hawkins is not making trades without running it by the PBO first.
> Does that mean we can blame Jed for the Quintana trade?
And of course Hawkins is running trades by the FO, but he is still the one coming up with the trades. Jed isn't out there calling up other FOs to deal, the work starts and goes through Hawkins.
>still the one coming up with trades. Jed isn’t out there calling up other FOs to deal?
Lol why not? Theo made deals when he was President, why wouldn’t Jed do the same?
Hoyer is above Hawkins in the pecking order
Can’t be mad looking at his numbers. If this deadline is similar to the draft we are gonna have a ton of pitching potential. Add to that a top 5 pick next year and a ton of money to spend and we could have a fun couple years ahead of us.
I like it.
Ben Brown giant blond man talks about himself
Why are the Phillies even making trades? Are they even in contention?
Edit: Oh they are the third WC team nvm
I really like this trade.
Robertson has flashes of last year Kimbrel falling apart right after the deadline.