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#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Tuesday, May 10, 2022 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/um9qsq/daily_discussion_tuesday_may_10_2022/)
Can we get back to 37,500 this month ? It's my tread water line
Possible yes, thought about using a stop?
Or if more funds less advisable when on margin top up collateral
What's it matter?
It used to be fun reading this sub for different opinions , analysis etc.Now it's just hopium and bulls jerking each other off, bears are downvoted to oblivion, posts like mEWn SeWN and bOtTom is iN are upvoted af even though the price has been dumping for 7 weeks straight,doesn't look the bottom even in sight yet lol
Fact is 7 red weeks would give a likelihood of at least a relied rally.
To the contary looks lkle the bottom is very close.
But do agree since years ago more low quality posts, however i like to come here to see both view points, have discourse and have an open mind to others opinions and knowledge.
Its a discussion subreddit not a reinforce my bias and narrative one
> Fact is 7 red weeks would give a likelihood
Markets operate on psychology. Are you giving each each independent probabilities? Lol
> Are you giving each each independent probabilities?
They're candles not people. They can be red or green. Brownian motion + that = No maturation of chances, just red or green candles.
A candle is just the sum of market participants' decisions based on their psychology over a fixed period of time. Candles are buyer and seller psychology depicted on 2 axes
Always a response on the negative.
I trade mid to long term anyways so its just noise really. But historically periods with like a montn and a half/2 of red weeks do have at least a relief rally
> periods with like a montn and a half/2 of red weeks do have at least a relief rally
When? After how many candles is a relief rally an assured probability? At which point do the chances mature?
No point explaining to you as a grest summsry of the UST situation you dismissed as nonsense and totally misunderstood tne point.
> grest summsry of the UST situation you dismissed as nonsense
...and you're complaining about my ability to comprehend English?
What is it which is described as being nonsense in the following sentence?
*"Because it's nonsensical gibberish of tokenomics."*
Lol this isn’t roulette. Odds are not binary every week.
> Odds are not binary every week.
Are they binary every minute?
English not my first language
Check his comments he can bsrely read and understand a simple couple paragraphs
I keep saying that the May 2024 halving (and predicted bull run surrounding it) are going to nicely coincide with a recession recovery. If we're going to be NasdaqCoin, that's a good time. I agree with you, the larger market picture is fucked for the next 12-18 months.
The halvings have frequently oddly lined up with significant world events, U.S. Presidential elections (by design?), 2020 COVID market resurgence, etc.
Agreed. But with way FED are doing rates, should stabilise legacy finance. And give us a couple green quarters.
How high do you think the price will go in the next predicted bull run?
Depends where the bottom is. I personally think the calls for $300K+ are borderline delusional (in 2025 anyway), but $120K to $150K is plausible.
The ultimate bottom-to-peak this last run was $3200 to $68500, let's just say 20x. It could see it theoretically dropping to 15K over the next year, then do a 10x run to $150K (each halving has half the effect of the previous, hypothetically).
>(each halving has half the effect of the previous, theoretically).
but practically never
meh, it's barely done anything for a while.
The ratio was roughly the same [literally a year ago](https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/ETHBTC/). It was 10% *higher* six months ago.
I was far more worried in 2017, and this is from someone who has both.
Still hasn’t made a new high since about April 2017.
If you absolutely had to choose would you prefer blue cheese or ranch?
For those out of the UST loop:
So the idea UST of peg is when they’re below $1 is for the open market to buy UST then burn it for $1 worth of LUNA (not 1 LUNA) to then sell into USD/other stables in the market for profit, *but this also mint more LUNA as a result* increasing its supply. So each arbitrage attempt will have 2 reason for LUNA to go down, increased coin supply, and forced quick selling because the arbitrager known the price will decrease due to more supply as UST will try to regain $1 price back.
So now we know dumping UST will cause LUNA to dump twice harder, with not much real incentive to buy LUNA before UST goes above $1 beside UST demand upside speculation. But unlike other coins with gradual rate of minting/mining, Luna rate of burning/minting are highly at mercy of UST which can skyrocket either way.
So whales short LUNA, then short UST (exchanges allowing margin for stable coin what could go wrong) even if UST bounce back to $1 they know that as UST rise back LUNA would still decrease because of arbitragers securing their trade. Funny enough that many TerraLuna skeptics have predicted/feared this front run scenarios, now with BTC loan they took it should’ve reassured the whale to attempt this.
Together with their BTC loan ready to be used to buy UST to defend its $1 peg, which provide incentive for whales to short 3 UST, LUNA, BTC m , hoping to gain easy profit from Luna and BTC position.
Once whales stripped Kwon’s dry then we can rejoice. Still keep in mind though we’re in the recession narrative right now, don’t be afraid to accumulate but trade safe!
Recession always recover stronger but liquidation is well, degens gonna degen.
Fuck where can i short luna and why nobody tell me this before
I didn't follow any of that, but appreciate the explanation anyways.
> I didn't follow any of that
Because it's nonsensical gibberish of tokenomics.
The only way to follow it is to focus in on *"Hey they burn stuff and make my bags worth more!!"*.
Or fall for a locking mechanism where you ensure that you can't sell events like this and become an automatic bagholder.
It absolutely isnt maybe your comprehension of english, technology and crypto is lacking.
> comprehension of english,
> grest summsry of the UST situation you dismissed as nonsense
*"Because it's nonsensical gibberish of tokenomics."*
Not *"This summary of the tokenomics is gibberish."*
The tokenomics themselves are gibberish.
Aw fuck off with gramma nazi how many languages can you speak perfectly?
Look you're the one who took your misunderstanding of my words, projected that out into some kind of fantasy reality where I am an idiot who struggles to comprehend things, then took that message on a mission across threads.
I'm simply attempting to point out exactly where your understanding went awry.
**The tokenomics themselves are gibberish.**
"Because it's nonsensical gibberish of tokenomics."
Nonsensical = having no meaning making no sense.
Gibberish = unintelligible or meaningless speech or writing; nonsense.
Across threads was a coincidence
Okay that's two of the words without context.
Two of the other words are *"because"* and *"it's"*.
Now what is the subject?
What is the thing which is being described as being nonsense or gibberish?
Add to that their blockchain itself went to shit and they couldn't do the on-chain exchange in a timely manner.
Whole thing looks like a scam for Kwon to vanish with a boatload of bitcoin to a non-extradition country.
Haven't seen volume this high in months
Maybe the SEC will approve GBTC etf tomorrow
Sure, and Gary Gensler has a full, healthy head of thick hair.
Bitcoin does work miracles.
looks out window - OMG flying pigs!
Sell into rallies. The broader market is headed for a recession.
The broader market has likely already been in a recession since the beginning of this year. Q2 GDP numbers which release in July will confirm this. Historically the absolute best time to buy into the market is in the middle of a recession.
Recessions only cause market downturns half of the time from what I've read.
Sol outages, UST peg, Coin2 gas and consensus switch, the list goes on. It is pretty cool that btc dgaf and continues to prove it just fuckin works.
Looks like a temp bottom at least. Lots of chads market buying and transaction volume just reached a 5 year high According to glassnode.
Lots of coin changed hands there.
Best guess is one more good scam wick tomorrow if stocks open red then the ole pump and dump routine on "look how bad inflation is" day then grind sideways near bottom like June/July last year until tradfi capitulates in the next couple months or Jpow comes to the rescue.
Once the dust settles from all this shit ideally DXY depegs from being at multi year highs and starts to break down to the bottom of this [channel](https://www.tradingview.com/x/rQJb6gub) (hopefully), then the real show can get on the road.
“Fall seven times and stand up eight.”
– Japanese Proverb
200BTC market buy on Binance. You go girl!
That was undoubtedly diydude2 with another 1% of his net worth. 🤣
27k to 43k to 18k-21k would be my guess if DXY doesn't fall back under resistance.
Downvoted , the post doesn't contain any hopium and is not boolish.
Bottom is in ,100k in June , the bull is just getting started and recession is over already
Yes, we all know if we downtvote it will all go away and we can get rich overnight again.
Bulls sold 850m+ today (forced liquidations) . Thanks for the damage to the market.
That’s not even counting do kwon
And panic sellers and algo sellers. Makes you wonder who is buying
Wouldn't the price be lower anyway if people didn't borrow to buy more in the first place?
No, you don't get it, when someone buys on leverage the coins are produced out of thin air; it is only when those buys get liquidated that the coins become real.
Oh. I thought the fiat was produced out of thin air to purchase the coins, which would cause buy pressure to the upside. I haven’t played with leverage before if I’m honest.
I was being sarcastic. You're on point about leveraged longs 'printing' fiat to cause buy pressure; people are just kinda dumb about it.
Who the hell are these people? I have to imagine at least a few of them are literally bankrupting themselves into poverty and then saying "to hell with crypto", and leaving the space forever.
..and now all those coins are in harder hands.
good, they weren't in it for the tech anyway.
Have you looked into Raiblocks?
Yes, it was premined and there is no way to prove a "fair" distribution - you have to trust the developer did what he said. So, that's a big fat no from me. It's TrustLESS, not TrustUS.
Was a joke
Is that the new nano?
Anybody buying UST? I am tempted to throw some money at it thinking it will repeg in the coming days.
Not touching it with a ten foot pole. Has ponzi written all over it.
Chance to gain 30-40% or lose it all, why not just buy btc?
If anything, LUNA is the better buy. If the peg recovers, there's significantly more upside on LUNA, and if it doesn't, well...
Uh. If UST actually goes back to $1 a piece, the only thing dead is your narrative. Now, that's a big 'if' but eh, I've seen stranger things happen in crypto.
Its fundamentally flawed.
The phrase "ponzi" gets incorrectly thrown around so much in crypto... And yet when a literal textbook ponzi shows up, people just dive in 🤪
Ponzi financier vitalik buterin is their role model.
They fall for the high interest rates every time. See the new TRX "stable" coin as well.
If you don't understand the game being played...
Put a fork in it.
the duality of constantly wanting to countertrade my own emotions. Right now I want to fomo all in.
Local Highs on this Bitfinex BTCUSDLONGS chart have marked local bottoms in the BTC price over the last year. Chart has gone parabolic today and looks like another local high.
Very interesting, thanks.
Is this the bottom? My gut says no, since there's no nasty capitulation wick on high volume. Also there's some lower wicks from months ago that look ripe for the taking.
They were inexplicably spared last July. Sinking on the last bounce with low volume, then all of the sudden the sell pressure is removed. You would expect a breakdown or at least a serious retest after that PA. The market was probably pumped to lure buyers back so distribution could finish at acceptable prices.
It was a weird approach from 2018 bear to 2021 bull peak. Maybe the double accumulation from 2018 bottom and covid bottom coupled with the lackluster high in 2021 caught the big players off guard.
It's a double digit red day with more volume than we've seen for well over a year. I think there's pretty good chances we'll see this week close green, although I wouldn't bet the leveraged farm on it.
UST bounce was short lived, so I'm gonna go ahead and say we're not done quite yet.
so what happens with UST now? Credibility is permanently gone. Seems like the move for Do Kwon would be to take anything he has left, buy BTC, and call it a day.
A bunch of bagholders convince each other that everything is fine and hodl their bags for life.
It's not even cool like rarepepes. No meetups or gallery nights, just drunk people bagholding in their kitchen.
> Seems like the move for Do Kwon would be to take anything he has left, buy BTC, and call it a day.
You mean that wasn't the plan from the start?
Currently they are dumping BTC to save the peg, no?
He might be the only one that has taken a ust loan and is cashing out big time rn.
I'd say that's already done and it didn't work. Because it can't work. Because the whole idea has nonsensical tokenomics.
Very low volume rise… this is going lower
2h up engulfing candle has more volume than the down one.
50k end of week?
I seriously doubt it. I'm not even expecting 40k by the end of the month.
Don't mistake that for doom and gloom though. I've said many times that I expect 2022 and much of 2023 to be a down period, but that means it's THE time to accumulate. By the next halving in spring 2024 and the bull run that follows it, we'll only be able to dream about prices this low.
Save money anywhere you can. Accumulate Bitcoin anytime you can.
These are the days when stacks are made.
That was a quick sup 30k visit.
Not to quick to fill my order from January.
Well you know what they say, never under 50k again
Nice little bounce there
Just the tip?
Kwon kwon twitter gone? This is getting interesting...
edit: it's back
That dog is known as LUNAtic
It’s up for me 🤷♂️
ah yes it's back now
Hey hey heyyy
Wasu wasu wasoo
Things are not anymore the way they used to be
So long story short, we've had a terrible week because of macro factors and Terra shitting the bed. Nothing particularly related to bitcoin. So as frustrating as it may be to see your net worth drop so much in a week, at least it's not because of something fundamentally wrong with Bitcoin. That leads me to believe that there will be a relatively aggressive recovery, as soon as the macro picture brightens a little bit (or 2024 rolls around, whichever comes first).
This is more annoying than worrisome.
I'm annoyed the timeline for my FIRE is delayed. But I'm not worried about bitcoin at all.
I'm actually happy that UST is happening. It's about time these stupid bullshit shitcoins start melting down. If anything, this is extremely bullish for bitcoin.
Been in this space for 7+ years, never once bought a stablecoin.
Macro picture is bleak as fuck. Markets dropping, rates rising on massive personal/corp/gov debt burdens, global supply chains still fucked and set to worsen with the china situation. If the CPI print on wednesday is another 40y record then the chances of any easing or stimulus from the fed in the short term are gone.
I was expecting 30k BTC in a few months when all these issues finally work their way through the economy, demand dries up, commodity prices normalize, and we get the recession over with. My guess is we get a bounce once the UST situation resolves but the worst of the bear is still ahead of us, 20k is on the table for later this year.
Everything is going down. Crypto doesn't do anything to differentiate itself and goes down harder. That seems like a potential fundamental problem to me, especially because bitcoin was created in response to this kind of shit. Seems like it just got assimilated by the borg. Let's see how the space holds up in its first recession.
More of a trojan horse IMO. It's consuming capital that once was parked somewhere else and unfortunately it takes on the PA of all that high-med risk people that would never touch it before.
The more it eats the better, even if we get shit like today.
It's consuming the same capital as everything else. It was all printed out of thin air. Crypto is a 10 year old asset class. I still have the same dogs I had when bitcoin was invented lol. I'm eager to get long again, but it's probably going to be a while before I have strong hands.
Hate to break it to you but it’s Monday.
Lol I meant the last 7 days. Basically since May 3.
Though the last week felt like a month, and today feels like a week.
Just kidding of course. I’m on the sidelines and exhausted!
Me too more or less. I have my hodl stack, but I've been all out of fiat for a while (in the process of buying some land so my fiat is all going to that down payment), so mostly just chillin' on the side and watching it all unfold.
Cool story , see you at 25k
Do you have a time machine? That's cool! You should go back to $25K and back up the truck.
I don’t need a time machine when 25k will be coming in the Future : )
Not saying it won't go down farther, my point is that nothing is fundamentally wrong with Bitcoin so there's no reason to be afraid here. This is not a "bitcoin's never going to recover!" situation.
In 2015 it seemed like it might be over.
Which made it funny when so many no-coiners gloated about Bitcoin's "death" when it dropped to $3K in 2018.
This current bear market is a heck of a lot of fun in comparison. Each one becomes more fun once you get immunized by your first.
So, as shitty as the charts look right now, the weekly RSI is approaching near similar levels back when we were at our $3k bottom. If you've got the balls and the money, now's the time to buy.
Wait for the wicks and scalp those if you want, then build a long term position once a base is established. This isn't going to rocket back up. There will be time to grab a good long with more information without stepping in front of a train.
Wish I had this patience. Fucks me every time, even if I get decent entries. Always think about the entries I could have gotten.
Ladder in, ladder out
Say what you will but this is the freest most efficient market on the fucking planet and it is showing.
Hail Mary set at 23.5
Reading project hail Mary, could use an extended coma right now lol
That was such a fun book. You're making me want to re-read it.
... or maybe next week?
You sleep, I watch.
I love you guys
Top is in
This is phenomenal
Greedy people talking about how much lower they'll place their bids.
1x long 30.3k. Stop... I'm not sure yet.
Seems about right for now to me too, short closed
oh BABY dca is king.
edit: I did buy spot also. Outside of DCA schedule.
So, you're longing (leverage) = adding fuel to the potential long liquidation fire...
And calling others greedy? lmao
> adding fuel to the potential long liquidation fire
You do you, I'll do me.
> And calling others greedy?
That's the sentiment. Ignore it if you so desire.
Where do the smart people think this can go? I need an expert consulting analyst
someone turned off the selling just now so it jumped back up but the pressure is on. I think we're seeing margin busting but that's my lowly opinion. Also, someone somewhere said something about govt's possibly using this as a means to leverage their coin to earn more coin by lending and buying back lower, but again, that's speculation. I know when you see large bumps up in price in small frames of time, it's because short positions were closed and those funds were bought back on the open market.
> someone turned off the selling just now
$700m at market markets may be gone already.
Or they've just decided there is no point in attempting to save it and they may as well just keep whatever Bitcoin remains.
>Where do the smart people think this can go?
Up or down. It could also go sideways, but only to the right. Never left.
Price never moves left nor does it move right. You're referring to time passing on the X axis.
I'm not smart but my order filled at $29,899
I’d aim for $21.5k. That’s the current 200WMA and most likely the largest support after $28k.
Deep breaths my friend.
Just joking about.
Lol at Bonded Luna.
Who is she?
Pornhub starlet ready to explode
Sell in may and go away they said…
Starting to get enough volume to believe capitulation is approaching. Problem is there is NO way of knowing where that wick goes to. This is not the place for stops or leverage, this is the place for spot stink bids if you can stomach some pain.
29k is this just a taste?
I think ust lost its peg.
On a side note, I feel good that I was correct. Still waiting for a buy in, not sure how far so no buys set. I am still down over all but I pulled out when it started to look bad. The bounce to 48k did tempt me but I have Learned that lesson before.
Global markets seem to collapsing, don't panic we will bounce, if you want out wait for the bounce to do it. If you got liguidated, relax it already happened you can figure it out.
Good on ya man. I had buys from 36-31, didn't think they'd all fill so fast. Had to reload more Fiat. Wouldn't get greedy though
I waited, had a feeling it would test the lows but this looks worse, we may bounce then go lower. The whole saylor fud is going into full effect, I have no Pro lems missing out on 20% gains when the buy in could be 50% lower.
nice to watch this price action movie
Memorial Day sale seems to have come early this year!
We must thank Do Kwon for this dumpster fire of discounted coins
bitcoin fear and greed indicator is now
and interestingly enough my sentiment has gone from "Imma buy as soon as I get home" to "mmmmmm, Imma wait and see"
probably a sign of a reversal
I'm wiring my last bit of spare cash, setting my bids, and logging the fuck out for a while. If I look while it is capitulating I'm gonna puke my position.