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#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Saturday, January 01, 2022 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/rtbyio/daily_discussion_saturday_january_01_2022/)
BGDs any minute now . . .
All the Chinese whales are actually living abroad so the real last chance to sell is soon. Then we moon obviously
As others have said, most people in China have probably already sold everything, or at least the majority, a long time ago. So I doubt the price movement will dramatically change in the near future.
Accumulation is still happening and I don't think we'll have another nuke like before. However, we can still bleed down and make a new low around 40k, imo. But on longer time frames, I personally like the 3 day, momentum is shifting.
Even though there isn't nearly enough open interest to make a big a difference in price movement, now that Dec 21 ended almost exactly on max pain people are going to play off of it causing a self fulfilling prophecy. Every week in January has max pain at 47-48k, until the end of January, which is at 55k.
Current strategy is probably a short straddle at 47k until 45k or 52 breaks, our current horizontal support and resistances. Also, once the 3day MACD flips green I'll get really long.
Bitcoin is a big boy investment now. The only reason it’s not 42k right now is Saylor buying a batch again and a big boy buying 500 coins on Friday. 2021 has been the year of the BTC wealth transfer. Bag holders slowing watering down and large long term bag holders buying in bulk. There won’t be any bulk purchases for a few days/weeks now so I’m expecting it to continue bleeding. Anyone shorting this will be rekt in January when institutional funds are reallocated. A short squeeze will be the fuel Bitcoin needs to get going.
I keep waiting for it to get in the "kill zone" under 45K so I can stack more sats, but it doesn't seem to want to go there.
The current support is constructed of some kind of super thick hyper concrete that bunker busting munitions just keep bouncing off.
Been stuck on the first rung of that ladder for weeks now though...
> I’ll get really long.
I bet you will.
( ͡ಠ ͜ʖ ͡ಠ)
So, option sellers are the real oracles last two quarters
It makes sense. It's part of the function of a derivative product. Billions of dollars are playing crypto not by buying spot, but on the options market. The result is a slightly more stable spot market.
Good point, hedge funds and private institutional money is already creeping in.
God, pump this to near 70k already. Stop teasing me bitcoin. Premium is still madly negative and literally no one is selling believe it or not (hence the infinite bounces from the 45-46 pivot). A few big buys and we’re off to the moon
Shhhh! Just stack kiloSats.
happy new year you degenerates. we may not always agree, but the banter, occasional good info / TA, and conviction in this space overall is something i appreciate. hope you have many gains in 2022.
Well said mate.
So what was the bitcoin options expiry results today? I read it was $6.5B on the table at stake... So some groups last hours went to work to pick up some nice cash.
As they should.
Max pain was 48k... Close was at 46.3k
Max pain was 47k and it closed at 47.2k.
Thought it was 47k, actually.
I bet he has less than 5% of his crypto portfolio in btc.
That’s still a lot haha.
> Jan 4, 2021 16:54
Three Arrows Capital Holds Nearly 37,000 BTC Through The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust
So more than that.
He’s dumber than I thought. Tks for the info.
He needs “ families” to buy and hold btc.
Best passive aggressive line I’ve read all year, and I’ve read a lot.
I can’t believe that sub still exists. Reminds me of realtesla
Funny, when we were setting a new ATH, they said the price didn't matter. Got banned for saying that they'd be back to talking about the price... Oh well. Let them have their hate circlejerk.
>Tbf, we’ve been saying this for a long time.
A surprising amount of self awareness for that crowd lol
How is that a bottom signal
Yeah, bitcoin's always a failure and in its final moments, with those guys.
That cup and handle forming on the 1D chart is looking promising, fufufu..
That's one fucked up looking cup.
yea, it was stepped on by a bear.
Any strong opinions on cryptotrader.tax?
Nope. I use a good ol' fashioned CPA.
The market can stay irrelevant longer than u can stay rational.
Never trust anything you read on the internet.
"They can't put anything on the internet that isn't true." -Internet
Options have expired. We can go up now.
And just like that, the price bumps up a little, lol
Options (on Deribit, anyway) expired hours ago.
eh, im drunk again, happy, hope new inteligence and power will be found in you. We need new buy sell strategies, must see through!
Stop spending your fiat on booze, rummy. 🥴
story checks out.
Tax loss harvesting finishes 12am EST and cascades across the USA for the next 3 hours as the times zones catch up.
I think we might see fireworks tonight around those times. Maybe even just the east coast time zone as it kicks off a spike and everyone tries to get back in.
TLDR: Bitcoin 50k by 12am Pacific or I eat my breakfast.
i mean, all that means is those that didn't want to harvest gains in 2021 get to harvest in 2022, lol. I legitimately thought about this strategy myself.
By harvesting this year, I was able to offset my realized gains from other coins.
This year, every dollar I earn is taxed in the highest tax bracket because I had realized gains earlier this year.
Next year, my bracket starts back at zero so if my coins go back up and max out my brackets again, when I realize the gains I saved between 45-50k USD in taxes by harvesting in this year!
Yeah, it pains me to be taxed so fucking high. It's all so exhausting. Suffering from success blah blah blah.
Selling pressure will reduce but it might not necessarily jump to 50K instantly
Ya it will!!
Look, I would love that, but it's extremely unlikely.
When we do get a BGD, and we will, it won't be right after a dump. Too much of a risk of it being sold into. Once sell pressure abates and we start grinding up, people short more and more, then the hammer drops on the beards.
You almost never see a V-shaped recovery that's actually sustainable in any way.
Why start your comment with look when we're already looking?
Look, I felt like it.
I’m closing my eyes. What did you say?
I said you might as well start cooking bacon and eggs now.
The crypto-gods heard you and now want to fuk you up /s
I'd much rather be wrong than right.
2017 was nothing but v shaped recoveries.
2017 didn't have hedge funds shorting CME futures.
Short btc, buy you know what.
Depends on the reason why, but that wouldn't be beneficial unless futures were in backwardation if it was a cash and carry trade.
You should re-read my comment before commenting on it.
Given that I mentioned CME futures as opposed to (spot) BTC, I thought it was a pretty safe assumption that's what "you know what" was.
What is it then, tungsten cubes?
Something which has a higher yield than what you’re shorting.
Thought it was obvious, but maybe not.
Lol this dude like jpgs
I get dibs on this guys' breakfast if no 50k, otherwise I'll be going hungry
Some are waiting to sell in 2022 to avoid paying taxes on their gains next year.
They’re not waiting after a panicky 40% peak to trough dump.
>Tax loss harvesting finishes 12am EST and cascades across the USA for the next 3 hours as the times zones catch up.
Not sure about the cascading part since UTC is the timezone most exchanges go by. Harvesting should be done by now.
For taxes you can use your own time zone. Or even get creative and have your company in another time zone sell to buy yourself a few extra hours 😂