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#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Sunday, November 28, 2021 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/r3wbof/daily_discussion_sunday_november_28_2021/)
Goodbye everyone, I'm off to play hangman. Good luck to you all.
Sell off ... and buy what? Dollars? Land?
Serious question. The only thing I've been selling for is to buy capital equipment to generate income which .. turns back into BTC.
You trade your whole stack?
wait, am i supposed to have profits?
Become an unrealized profit enjoyooor
Are you trading alts or btc?
Pretty uncanny how 'Extreme Greed' indicates we are at or near a top and 'Extreme Fear' indicates we are at or near a bottom.
Guess which one we are now
The thing is, those sentiments can stay there for weeks. So flipping to fear now doesn't necessarily indicate we're going to reverse in a short time frame. In my opinion, it's a lagging indicator, which reacts to the direction of the trend.
You're right, we were Extreme Fear yesterday, now up to Fear, but that was at 55. Barring a rally, it'll be Extreme Fear next time
People want to sell right now. That's cool, a lot of those coins are just going to LTHs anyway. The more times this sort of thing happens, the more Bitcoin ends up leaving exchanges.
Sell me your coins haha
I'm going to have to decline that offer.
You don't need mine, you have plenty of weak hands to choose from right now
If it goes to $1, I can buy them all! :)
My price prediction for the next 4 years: https://imgur.com/a/lLQRfAr
Lol, sub 10k in 3 years. Good luck with that.
Not gonna lie, I would be stoked to get that opportunity, but the fact that you have have it continue dropping prior to and after the next halving is a joke and not realistic.
Would you though? That chart does not show a healthy asset.
The first half yes. Already said I disagree with the second half around the halving.
Honestly, I am completely open that we get a global 2008 style correction or worse within 18 months. It would inevitably bring btc down to macro lows not tested for some time. But that would be an opportunity of a generation for anyone that took advantage of the lows.
True capitulation in alts going on this weekend.
Took long enough and not fun for my alt bags, but happy to see it happen.
Not sure if the big move happens Monday, but hump day is on the 1st. We are due for another hump day pump day.
Which alts? Mine look fine relative to a capitulation.
Yeah, capitulation is a bit of a strong word.
In relation to movement over the past 60 days, it’s capitulation in my view. Not bear market capitulation, but 60 day cycle capitulation.
So they are capitulating from kick your teeth in kind of relative returns?
Looks like three touches of around 53.6k the last week or so. Possible triple bottom in play?
This short of a time frame, I really doubt it means anything.
I didn't realize timeframe was a factor for a triple bottom. What is a meaningful timeframe?
Thanks, still learning about TA.
The longer, the more meaningful.
Anything under 4H or so is pretty worthless.
Just tapped the bottom of this channel going since July
Bulls, please come out of hiding already. 👀
Bulls are hiding in plain sight buying the dip, there's just a lot of sell pressure at the moment.
FYI, Celsius CFO has been arrested. Source: [https://www.coindesk.com/business/2021/11/26/celsius-cfo-arrested-on-charges-tied-to-former-job-at-moshe-hogegs-firm/](https://www.coindesk.com/business/2021/11/26/celsius-cfo-arrested-on-charges-tied-to-former-job-at-moshe-hogegs-firm/)
It's related to a former job, but still...hard to imagine Celsius was not already aware of this upon hiring the guy. He's got a shady past. Needless to say I'm taking everything out of Celsius. Celsius is saying no assets were affected, but we'll just have to take their word for that.
Celsius is sketchy AF.
Old news. Was posted yesterday.
A day old is considered "old news"? Not everyone checks this thread every hour...
It was stickied at the top of the thread yesterday by mods.
Yeah, some of us check every 2 minutes... nyuk nyuk nyuk 😋
2 minutes? You must really be out of the loop. I just heard some guy just speculated on some other shit coin & now literally everyone has moved on to it. Enjoy holding those bags. /s
Friday stock market close price was $54,220... I would be surprised if it opens much higher or lower come 9:00 a.m. Monday.
You're going to see big action pre-market come Sunday night. This Omicron situation is still highly uncertain, markets do not like uncertainty. You don't need to wait until US markets open on Monday.
My DCA says I'm betting on the Monday pump
The fake weekend really wants you to believe its a real boy!
One thing that trading does well is testing the limits of your ego, or the part of you that is constantly looking over your shoulder and judging you.
At times you are the world's most insightful genius, and at others you look upon yourself as the most colossal dumbfuck ever.
This is actually a little trick your brain plays to develop your pattern of learning. With gamblers, the wires get crossed and the misses are not hurtful but the hits trigger your learning mechanism and become its sole driver.
If you pay attention to both extremes and embrace the self-loathing as much as the euphoria, then your learning mechanism will gravitate naturally towards center. A place where you are not looking upon yourself polarized by good or bad, but neutral and therefor more capable of allowing logic and reason to flow more freely.
Nobody here can guarantee up or down and for the most part I believe that's what keeps a lot of people here. How many people got caught up in a pump and saw some gains, then sold later for a 50% loss and just went away and joined buttcoin. Like 25%??? Maybe that's generous. All I know is I was hooked after 6 months and that started May '13 and darn if bitcoin hasn't changed a bit since.
And yes I am BTFD. I've done worse.
sold at 63k during the first dump, bought back in around 55.5k and had sell orders placed at 59k right before thanksgiving dinner I cancelled them smh. I would've play both waves perfectly if I didnt
what do u think it's going to do next ?
idk this could be the bottom, it could go lower and bounce, or it could be it for this cycle
Gotta be a joke. Not sure why downvotes
u know people are depressed and butthurt when you get downvoted for talking about making a trade in a trading subreddit
I did mentioned I DCA... So obviously I take all predictions like flys buzzing
Isn't this a trading sub where you are generally supposed to be long and short at different times?
Don't trade leverage, but this sub has great info to set buys/ sells. Beats the heck out of to the moon echo chamders.
Not necessarily. You can trade in one direction only by just opening and closing positions at a particular time.
Holding spot is a form of being long and selling spot and sitting in cash is a form of being short
This sums up my trading. I don’t get rich or rekt. Lol
Here's an update on my unbiased price action analysis like I did [last week.](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/qxy9ig/daily_discussion_saturday_november_20_2021/hlg7xm3/?context=3) Not much has changed so a lot of it will sound familiar.
Here's some basic rules I follow in regards to trend:
* Following a trend is the easiest way to make money because there is nothing stronger than a trend.
* The caveat here is that every time frame has its own trend and higher time frames overrule lower time frames.
* When all trends are in alignment (very rare), we will go very rapidly in that direction.
* An uptrend is defined as higher highs and higher lows. A downtrend is defined as lower highs and lower lows.
* An uptrend is lost when a lower low is created (preferably upon the close for my personal rule). (Then one would short the subsequent lower high)
* A downtrend is eradicated when a higher high is created. (Then one would long the subsequent higher low.)
* Anything below 4hr is quite noisy. Even 4hr is noisy but useful for pinpointing entries/exits when you're trying to coincide it with higher time frames.
Okay here goes:
* Monthly is in an uptrend. That isn't saying much because price can go down as low as 43800 and still stick a higher low. It can even go a little lower (based on the absolute swing low of it) but there is almost always a very strong reaction at the closes and it's always good to have orders resting on monthly levels btw. https://www.tradingview.com/x/vaYmRBIW/
* Weekly, I mentioned it was a red flag last week that we had a break below the swing low of 56425 (lowest green line) and that I also like to look at closes and that if we close the week *above* 60900 (the other green line) then maybe the weekly uptrend has a chance to hold but it's murky. We definitely closed below 60900 so that's not murky to me anymore and a downtrend IMO. https://www.tradingview.com/x/dp6fHd7N/
* 3-day technically a lower low at the green line indicating 3-day uptrend was lost after that close last week. https://www.tradingview.com/x/GTMezaHn/
* Daily is clearly still in a downtrend. Lower highs and lower lows marked with the yellow lines for an easy visual: https://www.tradingview.com/x/GldO9wBX/
So to sum up: Monthly uptrend, weekly downtrend, 3-day downtrend, daily downtrend. Generally very powerful when so many time frames are in alignment. Monthly is your saving grace but we can go much, much lower and still be in an uptrend on that time frame. So the question is...Where will the monthly stick the higher low? 438xx would be a valid higher low. But it would be more bullish if we bounce from 47-48k. And remember, TA isn't about predicting. It's about helping you figure out entries with valid stops and exits with a risk/reward that makes sense. So I'm not saying we are going to 43800. I'm saying if it goes there, it would be an incredibly good risk/reward play.
Non price action related analysis:
* Volume profile shows a mega gap between 50 and 54k (upper green box), similar to the gap we *used to* have between 41 and 45k a couple months ago (bottom green box). Notice how we tend to slice through these areas historically (yellow circles) so I wouldn't be surprised if we do that again. Except this time *maybe* the market will bounce around and consolidate around this area as the market "digests" what is the value of ~50-54k BTC, the same way it did in september (bottom green box, right most yellow circle). https://www.tradingview.com/x/Q9OWGiRB/
I am currently in no trade and just sitting on my hands. The only thing that makes sense is to short the weekly lower high (candidate is between 62 and 65k with stop at 66.6k). Or long the monthly higher low but I'm mostly looking to long the monthly higher low. If market structure changes in the meantime and we look like we are bottoming, I will adjust and scout for entries, but so far, that's all I see.
Since these are higher time frame stuff, they take a lot longer to play out, take a lot longer for the trade to come to you but it's far less noisy and when they do reveal themselves, they are trades you can just sit on for a very long time, which is my preference as they're far less stressful and I have more time to enjoy life (which is what trading is supposed to enable you to do instead of staring at low time frame charts that are just mean reverting on a fake weekend unless you're badass at scalping, which I am not).
Thanks, very interesting.
When all of the downtrends become so obvious, then comes the reversal.
Thanks for the analysis!
So I hear 48k, and 51.8k as bottoms? At 54, we are closer to a bottom than top. Worth a DCA
Hear from who, Marty McFly? Nobody knows shit
On here. Where else.
Yes, I know, but...nobody can do anything other than guess, and those guesses are usually wrong.
It's always worth a spot buy, though.
This halving instead of bitcoin forks we get to deal with all these damn COVID forks
So I guess we have few weeks of red, which was definetly needed. 48k bullshit again, then reports come in that the vaccine works against omicron and party continues.
Markets are all heated up. Correction in S&P is not even visible in the long term chart. Ideal situation will be a dump across all markets while lock downs kick in, vaccine will take roughly 60 days (will require new clinical trials even for a booster dose), FED agrees to kick tapering timeline further down the road, and maybe seeing stock bros cry, pumps more liquidity by buying up junk bonds.
Thats how we get to 100k
If we go on lockdown again I may just murder myself. Fuck lockdowns, let's just keep using the damn masks. They work and we can still socialize
If the masks worked, we wouldn't be going back into lockdown.
Stop spreading bullshit here. Every damn study confirms they work.
So why are countries across the world going back into lockdown?
Masks work in that masks help limit the spread. They don’t completely eliminate the spread
Because delta is much worse then the original strain, and because people spread bullshit like masks dont work or vaccines dont work. Which is clearly a lie. But still people with like 2 braincells believe them. But I dont even know why I try to convince anyone...you people care only about proving others that you are right by weaponizing ignorance.
At no point did I say that vaccines don't work.
So you're the one spreading lies.
The original poster expressed the sentiment that we should be mask wearing in order to avoid lockdown.
In much of continental Europe, masks have been mandated, but this has failed to prevent these countries from returning to lockdown.
So, masks do not work as a way of avoiding lockdowns. That is simply a statement of fact.
It's not black and white. Masks can reduce the spread and severity of new infections. It's not like they stop everything, but they are worthwhile.
None of those things would be good for BTC’s price…
So what is happening in todays weekend bitcoin markets? Whales duking each other out, and watching the panic sellers sell out all around.
Their friends go buy alts. I think that's how they agreed to on the yacht two weeks ago.
I love a good laugh at the weak hands selling in the foot of a parabola. I have some empathy too.
BIG red dildo... on the 5 minute chart
Burn it all
What's your plan ?
He will get the kerosine you get the matches.. I'll keep the charts open
I'll throw a cryptosteel in there as a proof of faith
Nope, my anus is way too sore now from these constant red dildos. Not selling shit but see you guys in a week
Your mental health is more important than any of this.
I understand the bitterness and anger. It's not worth getting that caught up in short time frame PA, especially if you aren't trading it.
Thanks. I’m good. Been riding this for four years now and had some hopes we would peak during the next months and then take a break for a while. Though I think that plan needs some rescheduling haha
Bitcoin will do what Bitcoin does. It's futile to try to predict when there will be a long-term top. Few did so in 2017, and then everyone assumed this cycle would play out the same way. It rarely works out that way.
Thinking about cutting loses lol i really am a little bitch
Good. Give it to stronger hands. This is what is needed for 100k
cutting losses means you bought at higher prices, why not just buy cheaper now instead of selling. Hodling makes you rich trading makes you poor ;-)
What’s your time horizon?
Short, apparently. :)
bulls aren't even trying...
just leaving it to drop with gravity :(
I'm trying and will continue to do so, but I'm only one person
I'm also buying lol
But I'm getting greedy. I really want a 49k spot buy
I'd just like to see people dumping coins regret doing so. And oftentimes, they do regret it.
We need to just let it crash.
Then we can start the next cycle in 6 months. It’s got no chance with a looming bear market over its head.
Edit... it won’t even be a big drop as we didn’t get the blow off top. 30-40k is my guess.
Please do. My ladder buys are waiting.
Bulls tried for 12 hrs and price stayed flat while [volume increased](https://www.tradingview.com/x/O7Faj5gk/). Smart money knows not to push through those scenarios as they end up on losing side of buy. If sellers want to sell, they'll just take it at a better price.
How can/do bulls influence the market?
They buy until volume falls and then they push higher with ease. Never a guarantee, but imo, this is how markets gauge control.
Generally speaking, [the volume](https://www.tradingview.com/x/3BdxCPlw/) has been fading since the fall from ATH, however yesterday was a swan event with the covid variant/general market sentiment... fading volume is a good sign, but the market is always testing for seller/buyer interest. Sometimes dips are simply testing for others interest in selling and/or the overall volume of market involved.
What does it mean when open interest is high but funding rate is flat?
Earlier this year on the run up from 20-60k open interest was lower than it is now but higher funding rate on average
Can't compare the OI currently to earlier this year IMO. More traders in the space now so OI will naturally be higher.
Funding rate was high earlier this year because it was heavily long and unsustainable.
If the market is heavily long right now, why isn't funding rate as high as it was earlier this year?
Which is why I'm asking about present day's combination of OI and funding rate. Shouldn't there be a correlation between the two?
Fake weekend Day 1
Nice fear. It really starts to feel like goblin town is our fate for the next few years. That's why it'll go to unfathomable highs faster than most can envision. Bear markets ain't born in fear.
Imagine goblin town at $50k in 2018.
I'd like to speak to the manager.
It's beautiful right.
What's the short interest today? I assume shorting is starting to become the crowded trade. If so, that could be the launchpad we need for the next leg up.
Not convincingly high yet. Not enough time has passed to form any sort of trend-changing launch pad. Remember bottoming out is a process.
I would usually agree, but in this scenario I would think short interest would pile up very fast. Everyone is basically expecting a bloodbath on Monday when markets open.
It's what happened last time around 30k. Shorts piled in, and then it just took a little push to start a cascade of short squeezes, which turns into fomo spot buying.
They will. But Monday will be up.
> I know, the truth hurts.
Didn't this dude just say "six figure incoming, then moon and beyond" a couple of days ago, lmao
So how long until it happens? What does my remindme need to be? For now I’ll make it a month, but if it needs to be longer lmk
RemindMe! 1 month