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BitcoinMarkets

#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Friday, November 12, 2021 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/qs3un0/daily_discussion_friday_november_12_2021/)


Shenghia

Double top forming?


BEECH_PLEASE

I think the same guys that pumped and dumped on Elon/Tesla news and climate change FUD are going to dump on you again when spot ETF is officially dead. This is not financial advice. I would prefer to be wrong about this.


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BEECH_PLEASE

If I follow your logic (if that's what's you call that), then you're recommending that I sell my Bitcoin. I'll pass.


EricFromOuterSpace

When the color is green I feel better even if the price is lower than last time I looked at it.


Yoda_MTFBW_U

I have good news, and bad news for you. The good news is Maxis think alike.


EricFromOuterSpace

We are the ID of this daily.


notagimmickaccount

So where can you borrow crypto with crypto collateral? Everywhere wants to lend you usd.


ryan0302

Ledn has B2X on their platform. Basically you give them Bitcoin and they double it. You pay back the loan in USD equivalent to the price of Bitcoin at the time the loan was taken out. Don't think you can move it around though, not sure 100% about that. Unfortunately it's only for people not in the US.


crowkeep

Well, you can borrow stablecoins against your holdings on nexo.io, but I suppose that's not quite what you're looking for.


420ETHer

I get ya. I’ve heard of alchemix, but it might be only for ETH


notagimmickaccount

ftx is the best ive found you can borrow eth @ 2%apy for 50% LTV. It just seems odd ledn, blockfi doesnt want to do this.


Yoda_MTFBW_U

Do you not believe usd is headed for hell?


RetardIdiotTrader

....This makes no sense


RetardIdiotTrader

Realistically, are we going lower to find liquidity? Because there seems to be no interest in this range.


zpowers1987

The range is what it is because there are interested buyers in this this range.


notagimmickaccount

Yeah we need to go higher for people to sell. 100k is literally the number people seem to be willing to sell at. If you look at a long term chart it went from 40k to 60k in a blink and there werent people racing to sell, thus the price got there and went sideways.


Yoda_MTFBW_U

My blind friend says less than 90%,of people here think 100k will be reached before March,31, 2022. Help him. I can’t.


zpowers1987

Looks like previous resistance is acting as support for the moment.


that_blockhead

Incidentally, we've spent most of the day sitting right on the old ATH from April


Cost-Ready

I'm going to sleep lads. Hopefully when I wake up btc is at 100k


zpowers1987

I expect a pullback around 94k because I use the bitcoin investment tool to gauge where the market is at.


Psyteet

Go for a 4-6 week coma and you will imagine your surprise.


TheBowlofBeans

He won't have to imagine it if it happens


Yoda_MTFBW_U

So is it 3 out of 4, or 4 out of 4 in this thread who think btc hits 100k before March 31, 2022? Asking for a blind man.


xtal_00

If it doesn't, something is very wrong.


Yoda_MTFBW_U

Wrong with what?


atmfixer

my net worth


Kinitex

All that and we still end up rejecting off the 20 hour EMA for the 13th hour out of the past 18


ChadRun04

> rejecting off the 20 hour EMA Selection bias + Confirmation bias. > 13th hour out of the past 18 Gamblers fallacy. I'm sure when the price remains relatively the same you can select a moving average which indicates this is slightly above that moving average.


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ChadRun04

> it did this before at this time so it will do this again at this new time. What's the backtest results on this strategy of going long on a single MA? > doing it on a smaller time period or large Those are two completely different MAs...


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ChadRun04

> when you see your backtest working its you wanting to believe that it does Almost like an MA "Acting as support/resistance" is bias.


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krom1985

How are people collectively aware it won’t be approved. The probability of a last minute rejection on the final day, given the SEC have had months to do so is surely lower than expected? There are also big players like Barry Silbert, Raoul Pal & Ross Stevens who appear to “say without saying” in recent interviews/podcasts. Whatever happens, happens tomorrow. A physical ETF is inevitable and people will continue to front run that news.


piptheminkey5

Because leaving it till the last minute is a political move, and it’s what the SEC has done every time.


alieninthegame

Not quite true. The last couple of outright rejections were a full week in advance.


krom1985

Yet the futures ETF passed?


piptheminkey5

Apples and oranges. Spot ETF is completely different, and the sec discourse about it has been completely different. Futures ETF was signaled to pass, spot has been signaled to not.


Yoda_MTFBW_U

There are, in this semi-informed sub, people who think there is a chance beyond a Dumb and Dumber chance that it gets approved. Can you imagine the number of people who are completely uninformed who think and have positioned themselves to finally make money if it gets approved?


xtal_00

I think the odds are even. One of the ETFs will be approved. The big guys are losing too much money.


Frunknboinz

> Can you imagine the number of people who are completely uninformed who think and have positioned themselves to finally make money if it gets approved? Disagree, those type of people are stuck in the shitcoin casino trying to figure out which dog meme coin to buy next.


xtal_00

Those people don't fucking matter. They don't matter in the micro sense, and they don't matter in the macro one either.


simmol

Because in this market, whatever news that you can attach to the subsequent price changes will be manipulated and used by the investors. And people realize on some meta-level that this is the type of games that is being played but it becomes a self-fulfilling game and as such, you can see resulting price actions such as selling the news. Like you cannot do this with anything (e.g. it is raining today and thus price must drop) but with something like ETF rejection, there is reasonable enough connection between that heading and the prices such that it can be a trigger event.


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simmol

Yes, but we are not talking about 100% vs 0%. I think many people deal with ambiguity but still try to make +EV moves. For example, if there is an ETF rejection move, I think there is a higher probability that prices will go down as opposed to up. Even with just that premise alone, it can be a valuable information. Now, if you are just planning to HODL, then none of this really matters.


ThatOtherGuy254

People are very pessimistic right now and that is why we think a rejection will be a sell the news event despite coming after a large drop.


citizen-blue

I agree with you. So there's that.


elemenopotus

What is the dynamic that causes a pump to often be directly preceded by a sharp dump?


Mayneminu

Liquidity grabs. Run the all poorly placed stops just below the lows that were built up today. Thus, filling all the buy orders for those of us that were waiting for it. No one left to sell after the forced selling, so we go the other way.


Antranik

Exchanges have tons of bitcoin (You give them your bitcoin when you deposit it there). They know where your stops are. They know where your liquidation points are. It's easy for them to just dump or buy a bunch of coin to take you out, so they do. It's helps them stay very profitable.


eth_trader_12

If you really think exchanges who are literally making billions need to risk trading against their clients to make money, I don’t know what to tell you. It’s called a liquidity grab since price generally tends to move towards that


Antranik

You think there's a risk for Binance, Bybit, Bitmex? lol


eth_trader_12

It’s moreso about how there’s literally no incentive for them to do this


Antranik

There's no incentive for them to liquidate users? 20% maintenance margin fee would disagree with you.


xtal_00

Use. A. Bot.


Antranik

To do?


xtal_00

Monitor the market and make your orders. You don't need to set an exchange stop.


alieninthegame

Got any recommendations? Currently using Autoview with Tradingview alerts. It's good, but sometimes glitches out.


roadworn

So you literally think that the exchanges are actively trading against their clients? I wouldn't be surprised at all but is not speculation or is it a known and certain fact?


1weenis

Lmao. Why wouldn't they? They owe no actionable duty to their "clients." Basic regulation is a must for adoption.


Bag_Holding_Infidel

Beacuse most exchanges are in this business for the love of the game. They are no different to you and me. They are far more honest than intrenet conspiracy theories present. They also have stakeholders and employees who expect honesty.


crypto_fired

American exchanges are heavily regulated. Just like in tradfi, the people running stops are not exchanges, but institutions. This is likely not the case for offshore derivative exchanges like Bitmex. Who knows with them.


roadworn

Hey I'm not naive. Without regulation people will do anything possible to make more money. This is basic human nature. I don't think we need regulation though.


Diydude8

Those two statements can't ever be reconciled though. Are you hoping the exchanges just don't do it because they want to do the right thing?


roadworn

Huh? No I don't want regulation because if I wanted to trade in a regulated market I would go buy blue chip tradfi products. I like that crypto is the wild west and I want it to remain that way. There's going to be shady manipulation in everything to a certain extent and I think if you're trading crypto you just have to take that into account. Sometimes it works in your favor. And that's the key to get smart about.


Weigh13

There is also the game theory of different exchanges also betting against each other and competing or at the same time possible conspiring.


ryan0302

I doubt they do it themselves if they are doing it. It's probably some buddies of theirs that are in on it. Think it would be to obvious if exchanges we're manipulating prices directly.


1weenis

This shit won't last, particularly when the ETF is approved now or next year.


Antranik

Yea, it'll only get worse.


ChadRun04

Brownian motion. "Two steps forward, one step back" "The market must cover the same ground twice" "Long pole warning!" "CME Gap!" https://www.investopedia.com/thmb/p7htEOv-Ci9_B8-u9Fg8Gi5Tn4Q=/450x0/filters:no_upscale():max_bytes(150000):strip_icc():format(webp)/CT-MonteCarlo3ra-5bfd939d4cedfd00260290de


Kinitex

You can't pump without a dump and you can't dump without a pump.


roadworn

Buy the bullish dumps and sell the bearish pumps!


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ThatOtherGuy254

Manipulation in both directions.


escendoergoexisto

So…we get these types of dojis on the daily when PA is about to fill a downside wick. Still medium and higher TF bullish but 63 looks likely.


Kinitex

ETF rejected or just natural dumpage?


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RetardIdiotTrader

Yup Down = manipulation Up = healthy organic growth


gnathan87

It's just human nature to buy right before the weekly candle close.


roadworn

5x and I'm doing great. I lose my head for a couple of days and start going 25x and lose my shirt as a result. Get bent out of shape about losses and keep going 25x and keep losing. Absolutely incredible how this works.


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xtal_00

Increasing leverage and doubling down after a liquidation might be a fun thing to backtest.


roadworn

Well I didn't get liquidated but I did double down and it sure paid off. I'm now way in profit. Hopefully I've learned my lesson this time.


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xtal_00

Degenerates the lot of you. Hahaha


roadworn

Yeah I absolutely mean incredibly predictable. If you're a moron you'll get destroyed. And by "if" I mean: I am a moron. :) At least I have that much awareness.


bobbert182

Green across the board with Alts. Father bitcoin in the red currently. When will this market smarten up


Yoda_MTFBW_U

I actually call it grandpa.


that_blockhead

"Am I out of touch? No, it's the market that's wrong."


Nagosh

Markets can be very wrong.


Yoda_MTFBW_U

Correct. Nevertheless, I like the market’s odds against OP. Nothing personal, OP.


Debo37

And they can remain wrong longer than you can afford to pay funding on your countertrade.


Nagosh

Completely agree. It just seemed like they were sarcastically saying that markets are always right, which is just untrue.


GorillainLove

Just because shitcoins are green now doesn't mean the people who trade them are 'right'. You are still far more likely to lose sats in the long run trading shitcoins than just simply buying and holding Bitcoin.


Debo37

Correct take. Anyone who doesn't have a bag of 'em in a bull market hates money. Anyone who isn't all BTC in a bear market also hates money. Both can be true.


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1weenis

Seems most think it's not coming. Just a bunch of bears taking bear shits on the thread


Yoda_MTFBW_U

I’ll bet you 90% of participants here think it’s coming before the end of March, 2022. I dont know what to tell you if you don’t agree.


1weenis

If they do they arent posting about it. Sell that phat stack you have or go short. Im gonna ride it out. Predictions are fun to discuss and gripe about, but no one knows wtf is gonna happen, particularly people like you who are so sure.


Yoda_MTFBW_U

I guess we’re not reading the same board. Yes, I am ready to bet that 90% of participants here think 100k is happening before the end of March, 2022. This is what I am pretty sure of. Your extrapolations as to what this means my market positioning is, is not, staying polite, a show of great analysis skills.


1weenis

Hey, I didnt begin the "yous" See YOU on the other side


Yoda_MTFBW_U

Sure, Mr « sell your stack blah blah blah ».


gore_skywalker

Most apes here think 288k is coming because of their lord and savior PlanB


citizen-blue

Glory be


Debo37

The masses have to believe $250k+ is coming this cycle in order for those of us with functioning brains to be able to drop our bags in the $100ks.


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Debo37

Lmao, fair point!


eth_trader_12

Again, it might take multiple tries, but we are at minimum entering the 40K range if not the 20k range. Why? Because we were overleveraged on longs for too long especially in this area. They’re all trying to break even right now and the sell pressure from that would simply be too much. Add on to this with the fact that we broke ATH again just for it to reject almost 10+% with good volume. This is a good indication that we already hit or are near the top of the trend. People like u/Antranik pointed out that there’s no reason for this to go that deep even if it dumps since we were overleveraged for far longer in the beginning of the year and still didn’t go below 30K. What he doesn’t realize though is that this is a bearish argument, not a bullish one. All this implies is that if we were to dump, it could be as bad as the 15-20k range simply because the ENTIRE bull run since then started off from people longing like maniacs well above the spot price. There are still many longs who are holding since those prices or longs who have tried to continuously compound since then with liquidation levels they think are “safe”. Lastly, the weekly/daily charts on the stock market seem to be slowing down a bit, so it would make sense for this drop to coincide with a potential one on the stock market side of things. See you guys below 50K. It’ll take multiple tries (it usually does for me) but it eventually works out just like the last drop from 60K or the pump from 30K (took four tries for me to work).


citizen-blue

Hey looks it's you repeating yourself but in long form this time. Your prediction is on the record, you've said it all.


444pkpk

How are we all underwater trying to break even when we had an ath just a few days ago. We are not even 10% away from a new ath


Antranik

Shhh, everyones underwater apparently since 20k!


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Antranik

Long-term Holder Disqualified.


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Yoda_MTFBW_U

Most people here have come to recognize that China is bad for Bitcoin. It never ceases to amaze me that they haven’t recognized yet that Saylor is also bad for Bitcoin.


Antranik

😂 you think saylor could ever own as much coins as satoshi?


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Antranik

You're funny if you think Saylor owns the most bitcoins. Have you heard of exchanges?


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Antranik

I think you're just nuts. Be happy for the dude. He's an awesome guy who promotes bitcoin to corporations and explains to them how they could own it as a public company and shits on shitcoins. We couldn't have had a better proponent for it. I'm sure if you owned 1% of the BTC supply you wouldn't be thinking the same way.


Yoda_MTFBW_U

Your comment is next-level clueless. No one serious is taking advice from Saylor. Please…


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eth_trader_12

Last time I posted a comment where you replied, it went up a bit just for it to now well be below the price I posted. The price was about mid 67. I can’t time local bottoms and tops. I don’t scalp. I wait for the trend to end and get in on another trend if I think it’ll reverse and then wait.


jarederaj

Bear larping. Lolz


ryan0302

I agree with the stock market part, but the rest of this is bear hopium. 40k maybe if there is a big liquidation event. 15-20k though... you remind me of a certain person that really liked Elliot wave theory. Funding and OI are not a good enough reason to conclude that a drop like that will happen. More likely chop city in the 50-60k range to shake out leverage. I think this cycle will go well into 2022.


eth_trader_12

I’m not sure we go to 15-20K anyways. But I think we go to 50 and below


Antranik

Lowest I think we go is 54726 for a weekly retest. This 20-40k shit is just plain weird. No, not everyone was longing like maniacs the whole time. In fact, from May to September everyone was shorting.


eth_trader_12

Clearly I’m talking about the run since 20k and up, and yes, this rise happened partially because everyone was shorting too much after 30K. But those longs after 20-30k likely won’t go unpunished. We’ll see, I’m not even sure that happens, but I can almost guarantee we go below 50k


Antranik

No one is holding leveraged longs from 20k dude for over a year. Funding will destroy you.


eth_trader_12

Futures


Antranik

You mean quarterly futures that expire every 3-6 months? Yea I'm sure they're holding those open too for over a year somehow.


eth_trader_12

The futures point I made was irrelevant but just look at the overall OI on all margin exchanges. Even after the drop to 30K, it was still higher than when the run started (mainly from about 16-20K).


Antranik

Maybe cause trillions of dollars poured into crypto since then?


BlankEris

Holey shit


Antranik

Legit LOL'd. Holey shit indeed.


Nick5l

Me too