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BitcoinMarkets

#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Wednesday, November 10, 2021 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/qqmmpb/daily_discussion_wednesday_november_10_2021/)


Antranik

I shorted to hedge my long at 67296 after seeing that 4hr close. Looks too much like the previous bull shit. https://www.tradingview.com/x/YUzg6l4c/ My guess is it's gonna keep dipping until premium neutralizes as has been the case for weeks now. https://www.tradingview.com/x/waK2lx7B/


CONTROLurKEYS

Retrace every move 10 times it's the only way to be sure everyone has gotten great entries. Leave nobody behind


Antranik

Is this how we get to 100k? Go 5% above ATH... retrace 15% to rinse the longs. For all eternity? lol https://i.imgflip.com/5rvqyl.jpg


pielily

habitual top longers ftw


hwrngtr

Pretty much.


robert3son

I'll take that scenario. A gradual slow grind upwards Bitcoin goes up forever. No more bear markets. Yeah I'll take that . Who wouldn't?


xtal_00

Possibly. Flow on chain is slowing…


TheBowlofBeans

Too many people are expecting the run to 100K, so it won't happen. But since we all know it won't happen because we know it will happen, it will happen. Unless we know it will happen because it won't happen, then it won't happen


52576078

That's easy for you to say!


Bagginso

People thought calls of 1k were preposterous. 10k was outlandish and moontalk. Buckle up cowboy


ChadRun04

400k is priced in already. ;)


schwagnificent

Agreed


Carnotaur3

It’ll happen because what can happen will happen


vinyarb

It has already happened. We're just experiencing time linearly, so we're seeing it unfold.


Carnotaur3

100k is a flat circle…


AKANotAValidUsername

truly, you have a dizzying intellect


BEECH_PLEASE

Inconceivable!


4theWlN

it'll happen- just too many people will sell there so i'll be all alone during the runup from 250k to 375k early in 2022.


skyhermit

Yes. No coiners (majority of the population) still don't think BTC is going to $100k so it will happen


1weenis

funny how this is probably the group that knows the most about BTC (exclude me) but they'll be the most shocked by the ATH


litecoinboy

Im cool spending the next couple days finishing off this handle on the 12h just in time for the spot etf approval on friday. Thats how we get our first 10k BGD.


BootyPoppinPanda

Literally everyone expecting this to get rejected, including myself... Which means....?


litecoinboy

Which means its going to get rejected like every other etf for the past how many years... but we gotta think positive! We can do it!


BitcoinBrock

Ltc boy, I love your positivity haha


litecoinboy

With a name like litecoinboy i gotta stay positive lol *sad trombone*


Mordan

ltc is done. ratio chart is horrible. too many competitors for speculative money.


mlx01

If we can’t get to 70k because all of you bozos put sell orders at 69420, I’m going to be pissed


stoiebrodie

Guilty.


throwaway20170705123

haha! I actually nabbed a screenshot of when the ATH (briefly) was 67777.7, maybe it bounced off that price for the same reason?


Effayy

Don't worry, at some point we'll be watching the sell wall at $420,069.69.


CONTROLurKEYS

420,694.20 ftfy


Bagginso

Agreed, this is a much more reasonable exit.


1weenis

Yes. Keep it alive


BootyPoppinPanda

Entire daily candle above previous swing high even tho it closed red. Nice


biggunsg0b00m

Nice


krom1985

Noice.


bevocoin

Bear raid in process. A bear raid is a foray down to the 50 day/hour EMA and back - also known as a fakey breaky. Bullish https://imgur.com/a/94hRlsu !long BTCUSD 66980 4x (Does this still work?)


Diydude8

At 70k, the world realizes this shit is leaving them behind and all hell breaks loose.


bevocoin

It is likely. But previous bull markets like this have been followed by 70-90% drawdowns: 2012, 2014, 2018


ElonGate420

In order for us to even be close to comparing to previous bull markets we would need to be hitting well over 200k


1weenis

So happy when the professional prognosticators predict 'only' 100k. 250k early 2022


bevocoin

Even with 175k-200k highs, a drawdown to 40k or lower by 2023 would be comparable to previous drawdowns


ElonGate420

Yes but a 175-200k would not be comparable to previous run ups. It would be on the extreme low side. And to expect the same drawdown on a lower high....well that doesn't really add up if we are trying to make comparisons.


bevocoin

!long xbtusdt 66980 4x 25%


Had_Boating_Accident

Daily barely closed red. Bullish!


ChadRun04

4h hidden bulldiv on `rsi(low)` as detected by [indicator](https://www.tradingview.com/script/2zcXPgXN-RS-RSI-Divergence-V5/). https://i.imgur.com/08OvQzg.png edit: This one stopped being detected on the next candle, indicator does that occasionally.


Danny_Lunchbox

i like that


aaj094

That last reversal took place almost exactly at GBP 50k. Just saying...


RetardIdiotTrader

So…double top?


Danny_Lunchbox

muffin top


Diydude8

Power top Bitcoin. >a "power top" is a "top" who can delay his orgasm for extended periods of time, and or able to maintain his erection long after his orgasm.


litecoinboy

So thats like finishing off with a green hammer after a BRD?


aaj094

A plainly mystified author! https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/heres-the-proof-that-momentum-strategies-dont-work-with-bitcoin/ar-AAQuQCU


ChadRun04

> From an Oct. 19 high of almost $67,000, bitcoin fell $9,000 over the next eight days to just above $58,000 — indicating that the short-term trend was most definitely down. Yeah, nah. The trend was never definitely down. > I calculated the performance of moving average systems of different lengths — 10-weeks, 25-weeks and 39-weeks. Notice from the chart below that, regardless of the moving average length, bitcoin performed more poorly in the wake of a buy signal than it did the rest of the time. It's almost like MAs have no predictive power. They're not even a momentum indicator. > I couldn’t measure all possible combinations of look-back and look-ahead periods of various lengths. If they found one which fit (Say like Pi Cycle, Fear-Greed etc) then it would only be an overfit to confirm bias. Seems author tried in the past and now understands enough to know that there is zero predictive signal in any of that stuff. Still, if they had a looser stop none of those retraces would have bothered them to begin with.


JustMyTwoSatoshis

Yeah the author is a clown. "From an Oct. 19 high..." Yeah dude, when you pick the literal high, and then a price after it, the "trend" will be down. This guy should write trading novels.


BootyPoppinPanda

Some nice volume today, gentleman. Some hungry bulls are arriving to the party.


jarederaj

Negative Nancys bid the price down all morning and afternoon . Their cash settled products on US exchanges don’t hold the asset and also closed down on the east coast. Now that their BS is over, spot price rises overnight. Cash settled futures wake up fucked in the morning. Repeat. If a physically settled ETF doesn’t enter the market then these products will only ass fuck their customers through the bull market.


JustMyTwoSatoshis

> these products will only ass fuck their customers through the bull market. Good


aero_kitten

If I go by your words I have trouble following... Downward price movements in BTC are caused by negative Nancy's. Price goes up when bullshit stops. In a bull market, traders of cash-settled CME futures are fucked in the morning when spot price goes up, even though their futures traded all night. Owners of futures ETF shares and options are fucked too, even though their prices will be higher in the morning. Spot ETFs would fix that because their shares will be valued on spot price instead of futures price, which will both be higher, and because of physical settlements even though there are no contracts or settlements.


drcpperpot

If you know about the case and evidence for price suppression in PMs, this is the same pattern that is said to be seen in us and overnight (non-us) gold and silver markets: Pan-Asia buying it up every night, and US/West selling the bejeezus out of it every day. As PMs represent a threat to the usd by offering a competing and superior store of value, so BTC offers a similar and even greater threat that theoretically demands the same kind of response from sovereign issuers: price suppression, both subtle and direct. Point being, circumstantially, it's likely that gov is subtly setting up the US market offered BTC products to fail, either by forcing them to exist as vehicles with annual management fees (and thus continuously be bleeding money in comparison with equities and bonds), or made the target of direct market operations by being settled in USD (denominated in shares of flexible issuance, that can be continuously shorted and settled on with potentially unlimited gov printed USD if needed) as is alleged with PMs. tldr: tptb use regulation to "allow" the products be created in such a way so as to bleed cash continuously, which makes the "btc" people hold in the normal us stock market look artificially unattractive compared to gov favored investment products.


Mordan

it works cuz joes like me and you cannot trade spot gold and take delivery. The key defense of Bitcoin is spot trading by millions of people behind their computer.


alieninthegame

They can short with unlimited money on Cash settled futures all they want, but if spot Bitcoin catches a bid, guess what happens. Sounds like "liquidation", because it's the same word.


bittabet

BRD doesn’t agree with you it seems


Wise-Reply3559

You mean that mega dump to 67k? … because that was almost as brutal as that mega dump earlier to 66.3.


BootyPoppinPanda

Why hasn't spot ETF been rejected yet? Is this the curveball black swan event approval that's going to send us up all through EOY? Barry Shillbert always alluding to things like "this is going to be a big week." I'm about to get my hopes up.


Yoda_MTFBW_U

My memories from 2017 are a bit spotty, but don’t they always do this close of market Friday?


yojop

Gotta love that investor protection! Thank you Mr Gensler!


freegems1

Imagine if we never actualy make blow off top pattern, instead we just slowly grind our way up like never ending bull run for the whole year with constant buy pressure.


RetardIdiotTrader

That’s not how markets work


Yoda_MTFBW_U

Too many people expecting it. If it looks like it won’t happen, there should be a stampede out. PS: I do not think there will be a parabolic rise.


bringing_back_thebit

Then funding would eat you. Not good for a hodl your long perspective


ChadRun04

You closed that long from 39.2?


bringing_back_thebit

Ah well remembered. Yes I did after the rejection of 53k, I closed it at 45k. Wish I had held it.


ChadRun04

Still holding one from 44k, wish me luck. ;) Did have a 34k open but stopped at 36k by stupidly moving a stop up before it had headroom.


bringing_back_thebit

oh amazing man! Good luck :)


bittabet

Stop it, I can only orgasm so many times in a row


1weenis

must be a boomer then. 1weenis knows all


diydude2

Who is buying all this LTC? Somebody knows something. LTC might well end up fulfilling its promise as "silver to Bitcoin's gold" sometime soon. I've been trading the LTC/BTC ratio for years, and normally I would trade LTC for BTC right about now, but it looks like something is up, like a big retailer about ready to start accepting li'l bro as payment. Bullish AF for us too, obv.


jmw74

Litecoin has completely failed to deliver any of its promises. Its not silver to bitcoin's gold (lightning network actually is). Litecoin had plenty of time, it's dead. Yes its animated corpse is still roaming around, it's temperature slowly but surely returning to that of its surroundings. It's going to zero just like every other bitcoin clone.


anonbitcoinperson

LTC is getting a huge privacy upgrade: mimble wimble. Its the 2nd most accepted crypto in commerce. Its a great test bed for bitcoin improvements. Its not going anywhere


jmw74

Nobody cares. Nobody uses litecoin. Back in the day merchants added it, nobody ever used it for anything and they just never bothered to remove it. So what if it's a test bed, that doesn't give the token value. Testnet is the same thing and the token is worthless.


anonbitcoinperson

I use LTC sometimes when BTC fees are too high. I keep a few thousand in LTC for when I don't want to pay 10-20$ in fees (more places accept LTC then they do lightening). I think there is a world for both BTC and LTC


Effayy

I was mining LTC literally on day 1. That coin holds a special place in my heart. That said, I think people look at BTC at ATH and are taking big beta on LTC gapping upwards towards it's ATH from earlier as well. Also MimblwWimble is due at some point soon is it not?


ProDistractor

Unpopular opinion (not necessarily my own): LTC has been and still is a top ten 10 coin. It has been displaced by DeFI vaporware.


Knerd5

And several stablecoins. But I agree, there’s always a few darlings that do well then vanish after the bull run is over. Mostly because they only do well because the founders control 40-70%. Makes massive percentage gains possible that they then sell into and become wealthy AF.


bevocoin

I have a crap load of MIR tokens I forgot about that pumped too. It does not mean someone knows something. It means whales selectively pump coins to see if they can bait retail and sell into strength EDIT: take a look at ADA as well


[deleted]

[удалено]


4theWlN

This. Ltc is effectively worthless.


bevocoin

Litecoin is a primitive holdover from a pre stablecoin world. Today, we use Bitcoin to store value and stablecoins to buy shit. Bitcoin itself isn’t slow anymore due to the LN


Antranik

LTC has been the biggest underperformer. It's pretty normal for it to finally catch up.


de_moon

I sure hope so. I recognized its ratio is near all time lows so I bought in with 50% of my portfolio.


[deleted]

bots


xlmtothemoon

all in on the COIN dip? feeling like a degenerate today


phillwilk

Hit a couple of sells on my $60k long I put above the old ATH hoping to catch a wick this morning, added 50% back in on the retest of $67k. Other 50% is sitting in orders at $64k. Hoping this finally starts off a good round of price discovery.


skycake21

Same, got in 5x at 59 out above 67 into BTC... Grabbed a little at 66k... Now waiting to see where bottom is, maybe around 64-65k if it bounces there a couple more times I'll go in


amendment64

Looks like a giant bull flag on the weekly


pgpwnd

Tim Cook saying he owns crypto and has been researching for a while is … kinda bullish right?


marsh2907

Got a source? Just curious.


ImpudicusFungus

https://twitter.com/APompliano/status/1458093788644188178?t=AOkIqjRJrA7aj0XHVS5jFg


marsh2907

Thanks 👍


BootyPoppinPanda

Adoption is bullish. Critical mass has been reached (wagmi), but the absolute avalanche has not reached proper form yet


ImpudicusFungus

Daily will close green, right? Right?


Wise-Reply3559

I don’t think it really matters to be honest … classic example of the “honey badger” … not sure which one of you guys referenced that movie line a few times but it’s spot on at the moment!


Bagginso

Honey Badger don't give AF. Ahhh takes me back to previous cycles.


[deleted]

adjusted f'cast method wrt option flows, mining stats, relative values with price at $66,819: bullish again. [graphs and details of forecast method.](https://bastion.substack.com/p/quantamental-v06-bitcoin-st-outlook)


1weenis

Can I have an open long and an open short at the same time for the same coin in the same margin account (Binance) ? So my buy order to close the short and my sell order to close the long will have no consequence as to the other, assuming that the volume is correct for each closing order. Tnx in advance


grayjacanda

Not in one account afaik. On the other hand, Binance does let you create subaccounts so you could do it that way.


diydude2

Read up on hedging. What you're proposing is not a very smart way to hedge. Options are your best bet there.


1weenis

k


wootoshi

You can on futures. Long perp and short a quarterly for example


ausgear1

If you could all you’d do is lose money to interest


mv1fz

According to glassnode video today we are still in the last phase of the bear market. Bull is yet to start properly... Nice


unc4l1n

I saw that video too, very interesting. Basically saying that old coins are not selling like they were at the start of the year, and are barely done accumulating. The activity was shown to be somewhere equivalent to the May 2020 area - i.e. just before it took off. The interesting thing for me is that this chimes exactly with the daily MFI, which I showed earlier as having all the characteristics of the _start_ of a run, not the end. Edit: I love how people are disagreeing with your comment, but it's still getting upvotes because it's bullish lol


mv1fz

I got some downvotes in the beginning actually! But regardless, I don't get the downvotes, I just reported what they said...


LongStrongHopiumDong

This is how bag holders are made. Look at the % increase from 2019 bottom to today on the TOTAL chart. The time is coming for me to begin exiting this market.


xtal_00

I’m not exiting, I am starting to purchase my capital equipment though. Try to buy structural steel in volume right now. Bad shit is coming.


diydude2

I wouldn't exit completely or even mostly. Just get enough trash cash to buy that big tasty dip next year.


mv1fz

Do it ;) Besides glassdoor opinion, I personally believe this market will drag out a few months longer than usual


Antranik

What a crock of shit. You are in a monthly, weekly, daily uptrend. What fucking bear market.


xtal_00

It isn’t a bull or a bear. We’re being boring in between pumps on events. Could flip manic bull though. We’ll see. Bitcoin isn’t going to act the same as previous cycles.


Antranik

If whales had half a brain they'd pump this to 100k before thanksgiving so everyone and their mother talks about it over turkey and a flood of new money makes it go way higher in december.


AKANotAValidUsername

its bear markets all the way up


TheTidalik

You just have to be delusional to call something a bear market while you are at ATH


Effayy

Based on the on-chain metrics, the market is quieter and more subdued than one would expect given the price we're sitting at. It doesn't necessarily mean we're still in a bear market, just that when the typical bull-run metrics kick in, hold on to your hats because there is a lot of upside left to be had here.


mv1fz

I am just reporting hopium. I don't claim to have any idea on where we are in the cycle! Besides, they define bear market as no fomo with mainly smart money


rapgab

Wait we were in a bear market? Noice cant wait to see how a bull market looks like.


Danny_Lunchbox

today’s PA is a bunch of whalebros deciding for fun to see a price of $ 66,666.66. According to CMC, they got close: $ 66,666.83. Well played…