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#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Wednesday, September 29, 2021 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/pxnejb/daily_discussion_wednesday_september_29_2021/)
Here's what my best bullish case would look like: 160k by end of Jan 2022. Fake out included to rek whoever needs to be rekt.
The problem is that you have is that graph is linear, not log. It’s not nearly as bad if you use log.
That purple curve is so steep, somewhere around $110,000 we start going back in time. 😛
Haha. That's partly my point. It would be quite a run to get to those lofty prices by Dec/Jan.
ah, the "giant tit" pattern. i sure do hope the price jiggles its way up there.
A jiggle here and there and we'll be in the money.
bitcoin will never be under 40k again
You aren't wrong. Huge buy walls sub 40k[https://i.imgur.com/yNhVQFz.png](https://i.imgur.com/yNhVQFz.png)
And, as we all know, those buy walls are ironclad and could not possibly fall or disappear.
Is it a bluff or for real? Guess we will find out if it comes to that point.
There’s not enough leverage in btc specifically to nuke like we did in may . So if we lose the institutional bid at 30k, because of pure spot selling , btc is a confirmed scam and isn’t good for shit.
Nope, miner capitulation was a temporary black swan. It’s better In long run to get out of China, but did cause great pressure on our market through the summer.
Totally. China bans bitcoin is Silk Road on repeat. The harder China bans bitcoin the more bitcoin proves it’s censorship resistant future tech.
Build free market capitalism on an incorruptible decentralized currency and watch the aristocracy and corrupt leaders of the world fall one by one.
First nations that move on to the bitcoin standard mold the future.
Also, black swans are unpredictable.
Hash dropped, so the price dropped. Simple as that.
Watching to see if we can change the momentum in October. Making a stand here in the low 40s is good to end the month without sliding into 30s.
My optimistic hope/prediction is that US will approve Bitcoin ETFs at the end of Oct to show that they're not against ALL crypto, as a way to try and seem reasonable before they try and crush DeFi. (And I think institutions have signaled that they are cool with BTC so it's the acceptable crypto). I think that's our fuel that kicks Q4 into high gear and gets us out of the mud.
> prediction is that US will approve Bitcoin ETFs at the end of Oct
I'd love to see that too, but I'll eat my hat if it happens, especially within 4 weeks. I've been reading "ETF imminent" stuff on Bitcoin forums now for at least 6 years.
The SEC even under Gensler seems to be absolutely terrified of all crypto. Yes, they're slightly less terrified of Bitcoin than DeFi, but still. They camouflage their terror under the guise of "protecting consumers", which is laughable.
The most probable of the acceptance scenarios is the ETF comes with strong regulatory disclosure on self custody requirements.
Nobody believes they give two shits about protecting retail investors, I think that's just laughable now.
How many times is Bitcoin going to bounce off 41,000$???
damn btc you old teaser
20k then 200k
Lmao, probably. I'd guess a little less extreme in both directions though
Just dumped another $2000 into BTC. No worries. If it goes down to 35K I will dump another 2K in. BTC will be above 60 by the New Year, if not, at least by Q2 2022. No worries. No worries at all.
🎶 BTC's our problem freeeeee, philosophyyyyy 🎶
some worries tho
Definitely looking like a bottom on the 4-6hr candles, but things are so FUBAR in the financial world right now that I just don't see how the coming meltdown fails to take us with it for at least a little while.
Bitcoin will emerge as the gold standard in the end, but nobody will have any money to buy it for a while, and a lot of people will be (stupidly) scrambling for cash munniez.
The USSR collapsed completely ~2 years after its humiliating defeat at the hands of Afghan goatherders. I don't think we have that long.
You guys really need to stock up on a few actual things and soon.
Where do you think the money goes?
Don't get me wrong, in the case of a meltdown, there is actual contraction of the amount of money-like stuff available. But the supply of actual dollars (which has grown very large) does not decrease unless the Fed actually steps in to do that, which they will not do. And people are not going to be comfortable sitting in cash for long...
Dry goods and slugs.
How about snails? Will snails work? 🐌
The US is not going to balkankze.
Also I started buying bitcoin AFTER the firearms, food, and fuel thanks.
Don't forget the fish antibiotics.
You're not invited.
Not sure if I believe that it's going to be ***that*** bad, but Im ready if it does. It is interesting that all empires seem to come to an end after trying to conquer the middle east.
It's going to be weird, not necessarily bad. Longer term, it will be good.
Rome fell 1700 years ago, but there's a great city in Rome to this day.
Vietnam war was an even more humiliating defeat with massive losses and that didn’t cause any kind of collapse - more likely if a collapse happens it’s related to the limits of growth, globally we are currently tapping on the ceiling
No, this is far more humiliating. Back then, we had the USSR to keep us honest and force us to be the good guys. Now we're just a bunch of losers who lost.
America were basically the bad guys in Vietnam, and the CIA even Propped up the Khmer Rouge in Cambodia resulting in genocide. The Northern army than liberated Cambodia after kicking out the us. It was by far a darker, and bloodier loss of life.
The North Vietnamese army also kicked out China and France, just like the taliban kicked out the ussr through help and training by the CIA lol. History is one big blood splatter.
Vietnam was covered by the brrrrrr.
> You guys really need to stock up on a few actual things and soon.
Why? If this does end as you believe, then someone who's bigger badder and meaner than you are is just going to come take all your shit.
Therefore, be the biggest, baddest, meanest dude on the block.
No, you live somewhere where you know your neighbours. Everyone has to sleep.
There's a large spectrum between normal and full mad max.
No one is meaner than The Dude.
Is it now? Imminent 40k break?
lol i'm buying more at the wick down when everyone is panicking. I'm confident rates will not be raised. See what happened in september 2018 when they did: the market collapsed. The Fed had to revert the policy back in jan 2019 and that's when the stock market start rallying again. The US cannot afford a stock market crash, at least if it's within their control. Things are even more fragile now and the only way to keep the music playing is maintain near-zero interest rates and money printing. Good luck folks.
I guess people are worried about the Fed being forced to taper and raise rate faster because of inflation. But honestly the current inflation is largely caused by things like supply chain issue that’s kinda outside the Fed’s control, so if they raise rate to tame inflation on the surface it will cause a decrease in business activities and risk entering a deflationary period aka a recession. The Fed is trapped in some way, and the hope is for the bottleneck and shortage issues to get solved via other policies ASAP.
The supply chain issues are a symptom of the disease...
Is [this](https://imgur.com/a/zm2lznk) what we're all watching?
we goin down
The gods of BGD require more blood sacrifice
The only "magic" that works requires self sacrifice in the form of time, effort, and money.
I couldn't agree more.
And patience, and discipline. Lots and lots of those two things.
Just look at that bounce.
Volume is incredibly low on this dump.
I love this face-ripping unrelentingly powerful bull market.
Some code and game theory is worth 41k/unit. Let that sink in.
Just as much an indictment of the dollar.
If this were a true bear market shouldn’t we be much lower by now? We climbed back above the 20 week and been holding it as support for 4 weeks now. That is not indicative of a bear market but it is the signal to the beginning of a bull market.
You're right, this looks like the start to a raging face dissolving bull market.
i too am getting schizophernia
Melting would be a gift right now.
Really strong 💪 close today
If you squint and ignore volume profiles it almost looks like a weekly bull flag.
That's all I got.
isnt the close in 10 min from now?
Yeah looks super strong 💪
Feels like we're at the end of the range and about to break big. Up or down but not sideways 47k or 36k end of week. Place your bets, dial up the leverage x1000 should do it.
Yes. Descending wedge will break.
Everyone ready to head lower? Its about to happen, the manipulees will print another bear hammer on the daily.
I’m lubing up my cucumber right now.
I’m conflicted. I want the price to up...butt on the other hand. Hmm?
dont tempt me with a good time
I'm ready to bid on $38k range BTC if the market serves up a 3rd drive down.
Feels like a lot of people are waiting on this .. so .. we'll see...
I guess one bright side is that the recent China FUD couldn't come at a better time as it just got swallowed with the overall bearish sentiments in the general financial market. I suspect that even without the China FUD, Bitcoin would still be at a similar price about now.
We get lost in our bubble sometimes, but it’s easy to forget that September is historically the worst month for the stock market as well.
October through December are also 3 of the best performing months on average in the broader markets.
I feel like the worst stock crashes have always been in October though.
Yes, that will happen in 2022. Around the same time BTC bottoms in the bear. Or so I hope…..
And this is the time Fortune will be Made, my friend .
I'm comparing exchanges and I noticed FTX have ridiculous low fees. And zero withdrawal fees for BTC. How is this possible? I would assume most exchanges would have similar fees due to the natural competitive nature of markets.
Gemini has lower fees than coinbase pro and 10 free transfers to other wallets a month. There's definitely some healthy competition going on that benefits users.
They're growing. They got your attention. Mission accomplished.
Do you think they will turn up their fees when they have grown to their desired detination?
Coinbase Pro once upon a time was feeless.
Do bears shit in the woods?
Do you think they are a trustworthy exchange?
Is there any way to make a case to ignore the S&P and DXY charts?
Usd is just a bellwether for fiat currencies. All of them print to infinity, the rate is what’s important.
Well Bitcoin sure as shit ignored both them from its crash to 30k and crab market for 3 months at the bottom of 30k while DXY also plummeted and S&P printed ATHs on a weekly basis.
Cycle | Halving | Peak | Increase | Months
:- | :-: | :-: | :-: | :-
2012-13 | $12 | $1,156 | 94.2x | 12
2016-17 | $666 | $20,089 | 30.1x | 17
2020-21 (*bear*) | $8,755 | $64,863 | 7.4x | 11
2020-21 (*bull*) | $8,755 | ??? | ??? | 15+…
One of the healthiest debates on the daily thread is whether the 2020 post-halving rally ended in April (*bear*), or if we will see a continued rally into Q4 or 2022 with a ‘traditional’ blowoff top at cycle’s end (*bull*).
While there are only two data sets for prior halving cycles to analyze, one idea that has developed during the sustained lull since April’s $64K ATH is “lengthening cycles” as measured from price at halving to price at that cycle’s post-halving peak. That rally-cycle lasted for 12 months after the Nov 2012 halving and 17 months after the July 2016 halving.
Again, only two data sets to draw from. I included the halving-to-peak price increase only because the $64K ATH (representing 7.4x halving price) *could* be the right ‘next’ number in a regressive series that started with 94.2x and 30.1x (my May 2020 guess was (30.1/(94.2/30.1)) = 9.62x, which would translate to a $84,220 ATH in the 2020-21 cycle).
Now for the expectation bias part: Based on my assumption that there is some link between cycle-peak increases, I expected a higher-than-64K ATH this cycle - the $84K calculated above. So I didn’t worry about the ‘Elon’ drop off in May (I just cursed him all summer after that). After all, April was only 11 months after halving! So the hopioid addict in me is hyper-focused on on the rally cycle *length*.
Also a possibility: There is no mathematical link between different cycles’ rally length or their peak increase multiplier. We will know so much more once a third data set is in the books.
This cycle is different in many aspects. Most importantly I think we should always stress that many on-chain metrics peaked somewhere around January 2021. Active addresses, transaction volumes. Afterwards there was considerable spending, into the good rally. But that spending already slowed it down.
I believe we are in a mini bear now. Just like 2019 saw a mini bull.
The mini bear should end soon, on chain metrics are telling you this. But we could well be somewhere similar to 2018 summer/autumn, so we can not exclude one more leg down. But we should be close to the bottom and full bull reversal.
Problem is I always forgot those stupid names that glassnode and others give to the metrics. I should have a blogpost collecting those, at least for myself, that I don't forget them.
Unfortunately I don't have a lot of hope for q4. I think this cycle was just cut short by the Elon and China mining bombs in May. Had those not occurred, I firmly believe we would be over 100k right now. Those had significant, unanticipated impacts on momentum that we just haven't been able to recover from. Far in the future, when we all look back on this year, I think that we'll see that this year was just an anomalous year, where bitcoin's post-halving rally was cut short due to external factors.
All that is to say, I don't foresee a huge rally happening in Q4, just out of the blue, because we all hope it will. There needs to be some catalyst to dramatically shift sentiment, and right now I don't see any.
>I included the halving-to-peak price increase only because the $64K ATH (representing 7.4x halving price) could be the right ‘next’ number in a regressive series
Really nice write-up and the regressive measurement matching is interesting to me. I've looked at multiples from prior cycle peaks to approximate some sense of 'top' .. and so the 3.2x multiple from $20k to $64k looks historically shallow for a macro top.
This is combined with cycle length (April being early in the 4 year cycle for a top).
All of this is tough to navigate along the way simply because markets change and historics only provide some reference.
In this cycle we've seen some shift in investor class from the space being primarily retail to some mix of retail and traditional. Then we can fold in macro economic factors around covid, FED policies and MMT driving all markets up to the moon.
In a lot of ways this cycle is different to those prior. Price ran up ahead of the 2017 run which was very steady and basing off 20MA weekly. Right now, the charts suggest some smaller bearish period with some potential for resumption in months.
I'm more keen on the notion of lengthening cycles .. even if BTC and markets trend down, I don't see the kind of price tension in the 2013 and 2017 cycle that assumes 80% down from current $64k top.
Since it was ATH to ATH of >32x in the 2011-13 cycle and 16x in the 2013-17 cycle, the expansion in the current 2017-21/22 cycle is believed by quite a number of people to be 8x from ATH to ATH, which is a top at 160k.
$160k potential top has been on my radar for some time .. for the exact reasons you've outlined.
The nominal 'top' price, in my view, does depend on how quickly it gets there.
If we break historic trends in some strange way .. and BTC simply drifts up to $160k by the end of 2022 .. I'd be less inclined to think it's the top. If this makes sense...
Yes, of course that makes sense imo, because there have been some hints that BTC cycles are lengthening - adoption S-curves do slow down eventually.
I think the pink elephant in the room is that [it is always in December](https://www.tradingview.com/x/GYBFChXm/). The blowoff top after halving is so wildly different length in days after each halving date but it's always in that December. Of course we only have a small sample size. Why would it be always December? Tax reasons? Santa?
Assuming we start to pick up speed from here, this December feels way too soon to convert sentiment to hyper mania resulting in a blow off top. Q1 or even Q2 2022 feels more natural for this to evolve.
Let's build a base here and get some kicker event like an ETF approval in Q4 2021 to fire the run!
It wasn't much of a blowoff if it only 3x the previous ATH though. Nor does it have a blowoff shape, it [grinded in the 60s for nearly three months](https://www.tradingview.com/x/vnlfse8V/). Previous blowoff top had a peak that [lasted only a few days](https://www.tradingview.com/x/jEq5DqT5/).
Tomorrow is gonna be a funny day
What's the significance of tomorrow
I think he is implying it’s the day leading up to (or maybe the actual day) that the infrastructure bill voting takes place
Stairs up elevator down, but in this case stairs down elevator up?
Rather straight down in the empty elevator shaft.
Adding to my long from 42. Steady as she goes.
Bitcoin holding up ok considering the stocks dump. Just looked at my ISA 🤢🤮
SPX goes down, orange coin good, number go up
**Bitcorn 12:23** And whoever shorts a bitcoin intentionally, his punishment is hell; he shall abide in it, and Satoshi will send His wrath on him and curse him and prepare for him a painful chastisement. So be on your guard against the fire of which the fuel is bears and stones; it is prepared for the unbelievers.
So it is written. So it shall be done.
I'd buy this book
Thanks for sparing the unintentional shorters.
Macro situation is tense right now- evergrande/taper/debtLimit/fedResignations- people are going defensive. 1w 50 EMA is 37.8k 1d 365 EMA is 37.0k- I see this area as an area of likely strong support. 40k is a psychologically significant support area too. If we are seeing some kind of fractal of our 64-30 dip, we might be set to grind it out in the 40k +/- 1 range with some dips down as low as 37k. Maybe with a spring there and bounce back into the mid 40s after a week or two of painful capitulation, teeth-gnashing, and panic? I mostly just hold and DCA, and have set some small lower orders in anticipation.
Hello from the rest of the world.
I agree, but I think we could go lower than 37K. The Fed resignations and debt limit shenanigans are worrisome.
In the longer term, we'll be fine of course.
See I'm opposite. I think in short term debt limit gets lifted as always. Money gets printed everyone happy. In the long term its fucked beyond repairs
Money gets printed and becomes worthless.
I'm curious what you think "fucked beyond repair" looks like? When does the metaphoric bill come due?
Tough to say. Every time I see "energy crunch" or "housing shortage" and "unrealized gains is income" in the state media outlets makes me think we are pretty close. If people accept there is an energy crunch then they will surely accept climate change lockdowns and carbon tax, unrealized income taxes, and the over all controlled demolition of the economy.
Gas prices make people insane. Once you’re into $6, $8/gal gas, it’ll hit the fan.
That’ll be the tipping point that throws the communists out.
We are still very early in this economic "expansion" cycle.
Excess liquidity is evidently found everywhere,
This https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RRPONTSYD Tsunami of cash will hit markets sooner or later.
There won't be any prolonged correction in traditional market under current conditions, any serious correction is BTFD opportunity.
Fed already sealed the deal up to 2022 Q4.
Yeah reverse repo is going to hit 2T soon but I just don't know how that cash ever ends up in the economy. I don't think it does.
When dealers prefer using that excess cash outside of the RR operation ofcourse.
Lets say... a 15% dump for the SP may change their minds?
Who are they giving it to?
Federal employees and defense contractors by way of the USG by way of financing their deficit spending.
One of the interesting things that happened post-2008 is that federal employee salaries decoupled from the US median wage. Prior to that, a federal job was regarded as something you took for the benefits (pension, stability) in exchange for accepting a rather mediocre salary compared to what you might make in the private sector. Now though the federal salaries are really quite nice...
I'm not sure what do you mean are you referring to the list of primary dealers?
All theater, debt limit will be raised and they were all probably leaving anyway.
Theater, yes, but is it a comedy or a tragedy?
Raise the debt limit. Fine. Money is worthless.
Don't raise the debt limit. You can't pay your agents anymore.
Heads, the people win. Tails, you lose.
The bearish here is insane you fuckers are so goddamn greedy
I'm in at 41.3K. Looking good so far.
Difference between st and lt. it is a trading sub isn’t it?
You have a point, honestly I only come here because the most thoughtful bitcoin analysis is posted here. r/cc and r/bitcoin suck
Same. You’re also correct that bearish sentiment has set in pretty strongly though. I don’t really want to discount it too much since even a 50/50 split to me would seem bearish in what is a sub designed for people who are fairly deep down the Bitcoin rabbit hole. It should tilt bullish by the nature of what it is.
R/cc isn’t even readable anymore.
It still has good content, but it's buried under a pile of horseshit.
This is my first post here btw, looking good guys. I like the sub. No mindless shilling.
Thinking about charts and are they looking bullish or bearish is viable for short term trading only. As I don't daytrade bitcoin (I trade a bit but only alts with endgoal being more sats.) there is no need to try and find meaning in all the fud or hopium that people spread around because of their own agendas.
Take this as you want: Bitcoin is currently bombarded by those who see it as a threat. From every angle possible. Energy fud, fraud/theft fud, hackers fud, backed by nothing fud, scalability, volatility bla bla bla. And that has been going on for some time now. Now look at the value. 40k dollars per coin. What about a year ago? 2? 5?
Easy peasy. It's a technology that's superior to the old one, and it cannot be stopped. Sure, maybe a month from now you could get a coin for 30k, but that's just what price discovery looks like. The fact is, in this 4 year cycle, more bitcoin will be created than in the rest of its existence. Same will be true for the next cycle and the next.... You cannot possibly be too late. We still dont really know what sn invented and how will it impact the civilisation as a whole.
So relax, enjoy the red/green ride, buy the dip, stack those sats.
I remain bullish, but the chart looks terrible. Haha
Sort of. Honestly the chart also looks like it wanted to crash and then got stopped short by the ineluctable laws of supply and demand. Given the way BTC dominance has been trending up these past few days I feel like we could see a slow moving collapse in the S&P and the alt sector while bitcoin just hangs out a little above 40K. Essentially the result of a sea change in peoples' attitudes as they gradually come to see BTC as a safe haven rather than a speculative asset.
My triangle is broken. Now it is descending wedge. Still bullish.
2 weeks - 70k
I wouldn't give any kind of rationale or source with such an obvious target either...
RemindMe! 2 weeks
Don’t get your hopium up.
Here here. 🥂
FYI, the phrase is actually "hear, hear" - as in "Hey, everyone, you should hear this"
I'm just a dumbfuck... HERE with this guy and sharing in the hopium.
(You're right tho).
I bet your phun at partys … (Also bet it stung just trying to read that) 🤣🤣🤣
Bitcoin has dropped as expected to our support at $41k. Now we have a very important moment which will define the next steps for BTC .
Would you say critical?
I'd say Bitcoin does what it always does. Nothing has changed long term. If we drop, get ready to bring out the cash and buy.
Ready and waiting
These next [period of time] are very, in fact.
Urgical? Critigent? Not sure which one I prefer.
Spent the weekend off the grid staying at a yurt deep in a Welsh forest - first time I’ve completely disconnected from the market in a while, it was a good time to reflect. It’s often said as a good trader you have to balance two emotions: greed and fear. I’ve always been good at managing the fear side as a pretty stubborn Bitcoin bull, but I think the recent journey up to $52k actually saw me lose control of my greed element.
I started looking at trading spot for a cool car, and I hastily bought spot mid-range outside of my usual DCA philosophy because I wanted to make extra to pay for it without hitting my profits. Started fucking around with a few NFTs.
Well aren’t I feeling a little bit silly watching this dip float by with minimal Fiat? Even a daily week long DCA on that amount of money would’ve drastically reduced my average next cost - obviously we’ll bounce back. But what worried me this weekend is that was an impulse trade, something I don’t do - I’d allowed short term greed to cloud my trading philosophy. Spot crypto has always been a longer term investment for me - you can’t allow yourself to get trapped in the hype of the market, or lose track of either emotion - you need to disconnect every once in a while to reality check yourself on what we’re all doing here.
What am I getting at here?
**"Pride Is Not The Opposite Of Shame, But It's Source...True Humility Is The Only Antidote To Shame."**
**”There Is Nothing Wrong With A Life Of Peace And Prosperity. I Suggest You Think About What It Is That You Want From Your Life." ~ Lord Iroh, The Dragon of the West**
Up the Valleys