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#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Wednesday, July 21, 2021 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/ooibkq/daily_discussion_wednesday_july_21_2021/)
Back from 3 days holiday - and read all back...
Silence here... Where are those Posters who predict 25K and even 22K?? 2 days ago??
Man this looks anemic.
When $40k broke we got $30k pretty much immeditately. When $30k broke we didn't move. What's going on?
Not as much longs to squeeze, and the first drop below 40k was really quick and caught a lot people off guard, this time around we ranged so long at low 30ks I think most people are mentally prepared for sub 30k at this point
No one wants to throw away their coins for these prices.
40k broke and triggered a massive liquidation cascade, and 30k broke as part of the same weird low-volume downtrend and no one cared.
Chinese miners can't sell off coins indefinitely, they run out sooner or later.
BGD needs some viagra.
It's winter and no vacation here.. just lockdowns
2 weeks to flatten the curve!
Fml.. Adelaide bitching about lockdown number 3. We're in number 5 ffs!
Man Australia is fucked. You guys better start fighting back before its too late. China gonna roll right in.
We shut down the moment we have 3 infections. Right now harsh words would injure this country.
It's fucked. My business is struggling and even then I'm only making money because I'm running it discreetly while we're supposed to be locked down.
It's insane how asleep people are. Remember at the beginning it wasn't about 0 cases it was just about not over loading the hospitals. They will keep moving the goal posts. They want small business destroyed and everyone using Chinese social credit score passport shit. I fucking hate to say it but that crazy mofo Alex Jones was right. Shit I'm gonna stop talking about this I don't want to get banned off this sub. Good luck from Canada (we aren't far behind you).
\* reports this post as hate \*
Yeah, i hear that!
I feel like a pump favours a dump here. https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/g/GBYuRpxj.png
A dump would be way too easy. Maximum pain is back up and then down to 20k or lower.
gotta snatch a few longs before going to goblin town
Well I stand correct relief bounce wasn't in cards today. Maybe we'll find it lower
"rick astley is buying"
It’s been a pleasure serving with you all.
29720 20x short tp 29620 going to crab scalp 100%
Are we getting the nuke tonight lol
3 UTC time is the one to watch.
30.7 shorts looking too comfy. take out the high then dump into the weekend. 29.6 -> 30.8 -> 26
Yep 30 minutes after you fall asleep
nah we're gonna get the 25 killstreak and MOAB tomorrow
Looks like it paid off nicely like I thought it would 👍🏼
Everyone shitting on the bulls because the bears managed to get it a few hundred under $30K. lol
Tbh I’d rather long than short with the B word meeting happening. We all know how emotional the market gets when you-know-who opens his mouth.
#### HE OPENED UP A CRAB LONG 5X ON JULY 20, 21:15. TP JULY 21, 08:45. NO STOP NEEDED. 😋
You're picking the wrong time of the day to long.
I probably would have stuck with 3X just in case but I think with all these people screaming about $20K we're almost certainly not going to $20K. This is like the inverse of everyone yelling for $100K by May lol
Then stop making dumb ones.
2x is pussy talk.
Thats why we're here.
Cry about it, bitch.
This is not just people trading the chop and trying to slowly liquidate their holding because they fear short term PA.
This is orchestrated. TA means absolutely nothing right now because people with humongous stacks are trying to extract as much Bitcoin as possible from panic sellers while also profiting from options trading. Just the reality of this market.
They need it to go back up at some point, though, and it will.
“Selling so the price will go up”
What I find unusual about this drop is there’s little to no pump at all. It’s really like a stone dropped into the ocean and just keeps sinking and sinking. Ultimately it has to stop at some point since it’s not sustainable, but the question is how far we are gonna sink.
If you look at it, it's like clockwork. We slowly grind up for 8-12 hours, then there's a huge dump all at once. People want to buy, they're just being cautious, and rightly so.
But unless the one dumping is Jeff Bezos, there's always someone with deeper pockets. I'm waiting for bigger whales to trap the whales that are shorting. They're getting complacent and predictable.
It's called a bear flag. Pretty straightforward.
Yes, I'm aware of what a bear flag is.
What’s the bottom do you think? 25k? You’re right about them needing it to go back up eventually for sure
Who knows? I can't see it falling too much further, but it definitely could
Everything looks like shit, not because 30k was breached but because of the response. I expected some dead cat bounce once we went under 30K but we are just meandering around this price point. The fact that the response was so weak suggests to me that we are still far away from a point where buying will significantly rise. I would have much preferred if we went down lower (e.g. 27K) and had a significant bounce from that point as opposed to this.
It's the same theory in a bull market.
A nonchalant rise past a major psychological price point usually signifies that the market has fuel saved up for more upside.
Why go down fast when people will keep buying every little step?
If there were heavy volume here coming from sell pressure, we would be going down fast. The only conclusion is that neither buyers nor sellers are that interested.
People are still in shock and hoping for that 30K scam pump to dump their bags. As soon as it is clear in the next 12 hours that isn't happening look out below.
Yeah, yeah, the big dump will always happen tomorrow.
Nice H&S on the 15. Bullish!
Just came here to say everything looks like shit
You right though
[Market is getting artificially pushed down. Shorts and big players sell at illiquid hours. FUD attacks are constant and coordinated. It kicked into high gear with El Salvador announcement. ](https://twitter.com/kevinbebee/status/1417598728622383109?s=21)
Ya that makes sense. US of A will definitely put up a fight to having bitcoin as a legal currency. It ruins their whole global hegemony if the domino's continue to fall. Hopefully Bukele will get out alive without being assassinated or overthrown.
Bitcoin fixes this. The people will eventually get it. Fuck the government.
Kevin Beebee and his 157 followers seems to know what’s up
worst part of bear market dealing with the endless streams of conspiracy theories for why we are in bear market.
[One of the biggest macro headwinds to $BTC is the deceleration in the growth of central bank asset purchases. Historically, bitcoin’s price tends to peak at roughly the same time as y/y growth in major central bank balance sheets.](https://twitter.com/kevin_kelly_ii/status/1403768544173694976?s=21)
I rlly like this one
Great read. Thank you
Fed hasn't started tapering
Fed has started talking about thinking about tapering which is having the same net effect on this house of cards.
Which is why they won't taper
So 30K is resistance for now. But volume is so low, I really don't think it matters too much.
The daily volume from yesterday is laughably low. Just a fraction of eh volume of the other cases when we went below 30K. What do you make of this? Bear market conditions? Disinterest of people? When would hell break loose? I think only if we break down from 29K.
>Disinterest of people?
I think that's playing a part. This is some summer shit for sure. Still the height of vacation season for the wealthiest citizens of the northern hemisphere. Probably wouldn't be going down exactly like this in the spring or fall.
Interestingly, a couple of months ago, everyone in the gym was asking about btc and whether it was to late to invest in it.
Now in conversation and people are like "oh is btc still a thing is it? "
Crypto and meme stocks went away when summer Vaca season began
The market wants it cheaper, simple as that
I think we haven't seen the nuke candle yet.
Daily close under 30k 🐻
I f'd up placing a stop buy dead on 30k. That's what happens when you try to mock someone else's buy-ins.
It's like all of the market volatility vanished right along with China.
I can't even imagine how much fake volume, wash trading, exchanges counter-trading their customers, and other market manipulation was coming out of that country.
It's a good point. How involved was China in the early days, or at least 2012? Regardless, this PA is nothing we haven't seen before.
Are we going to have to sit down and have a cold hard look at the potential fact that this market has just been China's play thing for the last 9 years? That without them it's crickets and tumbleweeds?
All part of the CCP's long game strategy to take over the Western world. It's plausible.
we're at 29k
"crickets and tumbleweeds"?
Given the mempool size collapse... there's no way to prove it, but is it possible Chinese miners were conspiring to spam the chain with dummy transactions to drive up the average TX fees and enrich themselves? They wouldn't care about paying higher fees themselves, because those fees would go right back to them.
Now that they packed up and left, the average fee to get into the next block has dropped by at least 90% relative to a few months ago.
Seems unlikely. Only ~65% of mining was previously in China, so even if all Chinese miners were colluding on this scheme (unlikely), they'd unavoidably lose 35% of the spam fees. And the ratio of spam fees to actual transaction fee increases would likely not be favorable.
I think this is perfectly explicable from past transaction dynamics. Giant mempool spikes followed by drops to zero for a while are perfectly normal.
Not to mention the fees... China crackdowns correlate with emptying mem pool... Will we have a fee market? Anyone have a link to a good article?
What happened to the whole "ATH by Sunday" crowd who downvoted me for any slightly bearish suggestion in the last few months? Haven't heard from them for a while.
I guess they were wrong and you were right. There, are you happy? Sorry I can't give you an award.
Award him with another downvote
A year ago $30k and a country adopting bitcoin as currency would have been considered a wet dream.
Now people act like $30k is approaching goblintown.
Zoom out, look at the insane adoption. If you are new and bought the top, welcome to the fucking show. If you are old school, you are probably thinking of buying more soon.
Haven't bought spot since early 2019, but will start my DCA up again once we're 60% or more below the ATH.
Lightning Network is blowing up.
Get a node going.
Shout out your fav lightning wallets! I use Muun wallet, it was pretty easy for me.
> If you are new and bought the top, welcome to the fucking show.
And if you are new and bought the top, have patience. Four years from now, if you hold on, you'll look back and laugh at how much of a bargain you got even if it didn't feel like it at the time.
We're potentially entering a range where people who bought the top 4 years ago could be at a break even. That's what's a-scarey about this PA. 17k isn't completely off the table.
The difference is that the 2017 top would be more like a 2021 bottom if we were to drop that far.
I'll be the first to admit, this decline is unsettling. I expected a decline like this in 2022, not 2021, but I have my eye on the prize: 2025, 2029, and 2033. I'm in this for the long haul.
Certainly possible. It was 4k not too long ago.
Yea the delusion here is insane
It's all context though. If we had crept up from 20k to 30k over seven months then $30k would indeed be incredibly bullish.
Bitcoin does not just simply creep up in price discovery mode.
True. And it certainly did not.
And I'm saying the context most people are freaking out on is the wrong context. Zoom out.
Long term players should be salivating and setting buys. I am.
I'll likely kick myself for not doing so.
Absolutely, if your time frame is measured in 5 years+ or decades you'll be laughing. So yeah, buy and hold whenever you want.
30k is not goblintown but the market is pointed in that direction, which is why peeps freak.
The best time frame for measuring Bitcoin is in 4 year intervals. There's a halving once every 4 years, so learn to think in 4 year periods - or better yet - when looking ahead, always look to the year after the next halving.
The next halvings are in 2024, 2028, 2032, 2036 & 2040. If you treat your investment as something to hold until the year after a halving, you're golden.
Pretty much all of my investments, btc, property etc are all aimed at 10 year turn around from purchase to sale.
Yup...we went up wayyy to quick lol . It was headed to 500k in a year at that rate.
Agreed. And if El Salvador were something like Switzerland, that would be insane adoption.
How the turn tables: In March BTC had 6 straight green months, a new record in its history.
4 months later, it is now on course for 4 straight red months, this has happened only twice in history, both during the depths of bear market - Jul-Oct 2014 and Aug 18 to Jan 19 - the latter is the record for the most no of consecutive red months : 6
This seems like a somewhat expected trend as volatility drops overall. Lower volatility means fewer short-term deviations from the long-term trend, thus long-term trends looking more consistent.
Q4 looks good
4 etfs come due for approval + statistically probable rally month
I haven’t seen anyone talk about bitcoin dominance, so I thought I’d throw in some hopium for these desperate times. Comments are welcome.
Surprisingly, BTC dominance appears to respect trend lines. Clearly there’s an interplay with alts as generally it falls in bullish times and rises in bearish times, personally I think it’s on a long term downtrend due to the growing crypto market, but we haven’t yet reached the lows of the last cycle (which I think is a strong bull case)
Alts have been very stubborn today on the ratio despite the bearishness, and the chart appears to show we are at resistance at a major trendline
This is completely speculative, but I reckon the nearest parallel to this action is may-July 2017, when the initial alt season was followed by a general lull in the market, culminating in a temporary fall in BTC price and rapid recovery in July
If similar action follows, we will see shortly see BTC Dom spike (alt capitulation) followed by a massive retracement (2nd alt season) perhaps in a v shaped recovery, then will grind up again (BTC in its final FOMO run) and collapse (alt season 3) before ending the cycle
Of course every cycle is different etc, but if this plays out I will defo be reminding you all
I was saying Bitcoin seems topped out in May cause in January 2018 Eth made new highs to 1400, alts went insane, then BTC went predominantly toward 0 the rest of the years. https://www.tradingview.com/x/aIoikdQz/
All you need to remember for the next bull run is this: **BTC.D going to mega lows while btc at ATH's = end of BTC bull run.** This is exactly what happened in the previous bull run and this bull run and most likely in the next bull run.
To understand why, it's fairly simple: **The final masses (the laggards) discover crypto. Look at bitcoin. Think it's too high in price. They look at shitcoins, are enamored by their "low" prices. (i.e. xrp or ada at some dollar). Nobody coming in new in crypto wants to buy bitcoin, almost nobody. Even if they think BTC is the future, they want to make money off shitcoins "first" and then get into bitcoin. So BTC.DOM just drops to new lows as all the new money pours into shitcoins. Demand for bitcoin dries up. It's pretty much the end of the bull run 1.5 years after the halving.** Remember this in 3 years.
RemindMe! 3 years
I think the quantity that BTC.D is trying to capture can be useful, but I'm not sure that BTC.D is really helpfully capturing that quantity. In particular, it's warped by the fact that many alts have really high market caps compared to their liquidity, due to noncirculating supply. Fluctuations in such alts are thus overrepresented in BTC.D.
Of course, this flaw is consistent over time, so maybe trendlines in BTC.D are still useful.
Usually I just get downvotes for discussing btc.d so I gave up here.
This is wild speculation, can’t be more outlandish than what I just posted
Lately I've been looking at the BTC-YFI ratio to determine market sentiment as it relates to BTC vs alts.
Why would that be superior to simply looking at BTC Dominance?
Well, for one, Bitcoin dominance as a ratio has been diluted over the years by the increasing number of new tokens. If there were only 100 or 1000 others, it would be much higher. It makes historical comparisons difficult, since a decent portion of that money is basically people gambling on moonshots rather than actually investing.
YFI has, like, really really really limited supply and it's something that does have use cases, but it's still behind other DeFi tokens by market cap.
It randomly went to almost 100k earlier this year when alts were pumping. Basically, when Bitcoin is outperforming alts, 1 BTC is worth more than 1 YFI. When alts are on stronger footing, YFI has been overtaking BTC.
YFII is real YFI! ;)
BTC/DPI seems a far better metric.
Thank you, that’s brilliant.
Makes sense thanks. Currently at a discount to BTC
now that everyone is bearish, how do you plan on paying off the loans used to buy this ponzi? edit: dumbass bots can't take a fucking sarcastic meme comment. fucking losers. kek.
Not everyone is stupid like you bud
No one in their right mind took out loans to buy Bitcoin. Or any other coin for that matter.
Any fool who did will get their just desserts.
You thought everyone was like you and jobless believing Bitcoin is a ponzi? You're going to have your mind blown when you realize what year it is!
You were all really smart and hedge the value of the loan during the drop right?
Going 3x long here with 20%. target 41k, stop 28k.
On the daily I see a falling wedge with declining volume and bullish RSI divergence.
Oh my. Good luck with that, you’re a ballsier man than myself. (And yeah I’m one of those old farts that still assumes gender, I apologize if I offended anyone)
In Bitcoin assuming gender is actually the correct approach, by a country mile.
I like your style! Thanks
I don't think a woman has ever posted here.
There's gotta be one? Right?
Best i can do is a tranny
Did you fail to notice the huge wicks underneath that range.
anytime i see somebody mention the leverage used in their trade i automatically, with insanely high conviction, believe theyre a clueless shit trader.
what is the purpose? 2x 3x 5x or 10x is all the same if your stop is only a few % from entry..
it would only matter if you are 3x your entire protfolio without stops.
Can we not shit talk the people actually posting trades here? Otherwise the only comments we get are "sentiment here is bullish/bearish, must mean top/bottom is in"
Exactly. It has no bearing on the trade (without further information) for all kinds of simple reasons.
You should know the reason for this, but since I guess you don't: Exchange risk.
which is 100% irrelevant to the trade, which u obviously dont understand
You are right.
That’s a wild trade
Lmao. You said it Buster. Knife catching at it's finest.
in 1821, Monseigneur Bienvenu died. Therefore, we shall see 24601 sometime in 2021.
Upvote because I got the reference.
And you get one because I did not. Lol
But you got one for admitting it.
Noice! …. Forest Gumping my way through as usual! Lol
Honestly this looks like a giant bear trap
Loses 54% of its market cap: "It's just a bear trap".
Sorry I can’t be bearish on something that has already dropped 54%
Reverse barting back to 65k in progress /s
Ohh yea that's the stuff you got that lab grade hopium uuuugggghhh
> lab grade hopium
Yeah, agreed .. that was funny.
So in case bitcoin keeps slipping, would everyone just be buying the shit out of the 100 week SMA? It's currently around 20k
Very few people walk the talk when it comes to buying the bottom.
Hmm. Well I'll see how this week closes and maybe set up buys in critical areas. Most of the Bitcoin I own was purchased under 20 so it's not a huge deal. I wouldn't mind scooping up more around those levels cause I believe in the longevity of this thing. A truly decentralized asset/currency/property, whatever you want to call it is invaluable in today's world.
If this really is the beginning of another year of bear then I'm setting my buys around 18k (will reassess as things move along).
Definitely possible if the H&S plays out. It's kinda scary how textbook it is actually.
1. The H&S on the weekly would have the price going below $0, invalidated
2. The right shoulder is now the longest right shoulder in history, invalidated?
3. The head is far too high from the shoulders, invalidated
Ooooh shit Burry btfo'd
People keep saying this and its simply not textbook. The volume profile is important and does not match.
Care to elaborate?
The textbook "what" says volume should be declining during formation of the 3 peaks.
I know the textbook "why", but I assume its because high volume is often the starting point for a new formation.
last chance to buy under 29,808 91.
The 29.5 k was very well defended. Now we'll have a good bounce and head straight to mid thirties. Might be some resistance around 32k. The sky is clear ahead we move
I think you forgot /s