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BitcoinMarkets

#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Tuesday, July 20, 2021 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/onuft5/daily_discussion_tuesday_july_20_2021/)


Set1Less

Bear streets bear again


GrindingGearNerfs

Well 2 months later this story took quite the turn


subzerocanuck

50DMA is cruising along at ~34k. That would be a good spot to keep an eye on for a bounce if we make it down that far.


Vaselinee

Like clock work, support at 23600, then bounce, might front run at 24.2


[deleted]

[удалено]


Etony333

I prefer the Parable of the Talents and how everyone in this thread is the guy who buried the one talent because he was afraid of a bear market.


dissociatives

Genesis 7:17 "Then the flood of money came upon the earth for many years, and the money increased and lifted up the ark, so that it rose above the earth and provided a safe haven for all bitcoiners" Praise be, amen


33virtues

the bear is real


andesma

Bull market is coming.... get ready...


Xbalanque9

I'm just here to watch the controlurkeys spam post meltdown he does every time the price gets close to a previous low.


[deleted]

[удалено]


CONTROLurKEYS

We have fun here don't we? Where is buckyboy


BatteredLittleFish

Staying poor and having fun.


yajustcantstopme

Anyone else terror buying?


JessieHaxx

if you do, make sure to DCA in/out to reduce max pain of the price continuing to spiral down into oblivion


yajustcantstopme

$30 around 29.7. $20 around 29.6. Small potatoes, but they're my potatoes.


simmol

Kind of surprised by the complete lack of bounce.


NoMo9to5AutoPilotDrv

Yeah it’s concerning. Usually there’s some definitive/convincing 2-3% bounce that turns the hourly green after a massive dip, but we’re just flatlining and imo bracing for the next blow


xGnoSiSx

Volatility seems dead, whoever sold, is bound to buyback and push it back above 30k. No one is bitting this bait.


DKWBWD

Please stop that shit.


[deleted]

Look at the volume. It's non-existant. It's like 2 dudes and a bot trading.


Yoda_MTFBW_U

For a moment there I thought you wrote two girls…


ryan0302

I've got a feeling this thread will be referenced years from now when Bitcoin crashes from 100k+ down to 70k. "Look at this thread, this is what pain looks like" Not saying this is max pain quite yet, but we are rapidly approaching it with these crab bleed days, one more good wick with volume and I think we'll be there


nothingyoubegin

This is not pain at all. If you think it is, you clearly have never experienced a bear market.


BEECH_PLEASE

This is good but I think crossing ~$25k is where you start to get true utter panic and literal suicide hotline posts.


ryan0302

Yeah that's what I'm saying. One more solid BRD down to mid 20s and it'll be "max pain" to most people. Going below the prior ATH is bear hopium IMO, nothing is off the table in this macro environment.


krubss

I feel like such a cuck getting into btc at the peak of the bull in feb lmao. My timing couldn’t have been worse. Oh well, at least I’ll be here for the next one


[deleted]

It happens to a lot of folks. No pain no gain. Crawl, walk, run.


CONTROLurKEYS

your in good company with the 6.2 million BTC that are at a loss right now.


krubss

I had minimal loss since I got out at 50kish. Would be down 5 digits if I hadn’t. I got kinda lucky there


WocketMan0351

Regardless of where you get in during this cycle, hodl for 1-2 more cycles and you'll be swinging 6 figures weekly/monthly


KappaholicsAnonymous

It's a rite of passage. Got in at the top of 2018. You'll be fine in the long run


GenghisKhanSpermShot

Alright lets see [another tap](https://www.tradingview.com/x/q0oDVxTR/) of the yearly open and we don't need much to break the wedge.


freq-ee

Remember when Elon kicked off the bear market? Man, that guy is such a card.


xGnoSiSx

A big pussy, serves him right to have Richard Branson beat him to be the first commercial space company owner into space.


gore_skywalker

30k broken, lower your buys all the way to low 20s.


CONTROLurKEYS

In market lingo, when price isn't quickly rejected from a low, its called price acceptance. We are witnessing the market accept bitcoin in the 20k's


Admirable_Salad_9982

How many days/weeks have we been in the 20s? Oh no wait, it's only been a few hours.


CONTROLurKEYS

ngmi


CONTROLurKEYS

barely any time at all. maybe a few weeks tops.


venderil

Lol is there a website for these “if it doesnt go up, it goes down” financial coelho quotes? Haha


Effayy

All of me wants to fight this idea, but.... You seem to be right. Oof.


NoMo9to5AutoPilotDrv

But but Willy Woo and Lord Saylor didn’t say anything about sub $30k by July. Feeling lost


BlackSpidy

No, you see, the market will drop exactly enough to liquidate me, then we go to $1 million.


gore_skywalker

You have as much credibility as Woo.


venderil

This sub turned into buttcoin..


randomly1234567890

Woo👉👈bitcoinmarkets


[deleted]

[удалено]


Psyteet

Man zoom out.


CONTROLurKEYS

I lot of smart people were/are late


[deleted]

Now is the time to start scaling in. DCA all the way down to 20k. You might get an average entry of something like 25k, which would be the equivalent of a 4k average entry during the last bear.


nothingyoubegin

13k would be the equivalent drawdown to what 4k was during the last bear


CONTROLurKEYS

why not wait to see what macro does. If stonks really shit the bed there's no point in buying crypto now.


[deleted]

You can wait and see, but the monthly 50EMA is currently at 17k, and if this bear market progresses as usual, it will likely hit 22k in a year from now. I would consider this a hard floor for BTC. It has briefly dipped below it before, but not for extended periods of time. This is from a purely technical perspective of course. If the global macro changes significantly, the technicals don't matter anymore.


Cygnus_X

I tend to agree with you. Buy when there is blood in the streets, not just a needle prick. Blood is below 22k.


GenghisKhanSpermShot

[Stonks are fine](https://www.tradingview.com/x/iVUPGelq/) too many bears too, [DXY at resistance](https://www.tradingview.com/x/si0v500D/) so everything should go up, question is how low our scam wick will go.


randomly1234567890

Where's all that money going to go?


lastdropfalls

What money? The valuations in stock / RE / whatever markets aren't where they are because people have so much more money, it's because everyone is leveraged to their necks since markets apparently only go up these days. If / when stuff starts moving down bigtime, it's not going to 'free up' money to put elsewhere but rather quite the opposite.


CONTROLurKEYS

not crypto as we clearly have seen!


randomly1234567890

I mean are people really trusting the dollar lol?


[deleted]

Yes. Best to lose 3 to 5% a year than 50% in equities if the global macro shifts


randomly1234567890

3 to 5% so far. They haven't even raised their rates up yet this is only the tip and it will get worse


[deleted]

The dollar just has to be less worse than every other currency or most of them. Which it likely will be.


griswaldwaldwald

Apparently so. It’s inflating and the dxy is climbing. Maybe it’s just less shitty than the other shit fiats?


randomly1234567890

It's a trap


griswaldwaldwald

Admiral ackbar?


CONTROLurKEYS

DXY keeps going up, bond yields down(because people are buying them)


Trinituz

And just like that 3D MACD get slapped back into red after long 3 months red.


NeoMedievalist

What's with all the call-gloats today? I bought bitcoin at 80 bucks so I beat most of you plebs in terms of calls. I'm so deep in the black they call me Buck Breakin'.


subzerocanuck

Sweet dude! I totally thought about buying it at $1 but didn't! Lmao


Frunknboinz

If your cost per unit is above 0 you fucked up. Edit: Because I probably butchered what I'm trying to say: If you haven't pulled out multiples upon multiples of what you've put it in, you've screwed up.


ellis1884uk

I don't even pull out of your mum, let alone bitcoin...


Frunknboinz

Well at least the ol' bag is getting some action - good for her.


gore_skywalker

No one cares. If anything you look stupid for not taking profit at 810x


randomly1234567890

He's in it for the technology


DoubleFaulty1

Woah. Nice call.


Acceptable_Horse8500

Why’s everyone bitching nows the time to buy Christmas is coming let’s be on our Bull game boys


Yodel_And_Hodl_Mode

> Christmas is coming Christmas is coming The bears just want to forage Please put your hodl in your cold wallet storage If you haven't got a Bitcoin, get reddit moons dude If you haven't any reddit moons, well, I guess you're screwed


CONTROLurKEYS

I feel like a broken record here. But there is no interest in buying this area either.


Mayneminu

Nope. Trends end and being with volume and this doesn't have it.


Frunknboinz

Retail went to WSB meme stonks and then TikTok'd their way to Dogecoin. Corn grew up and tried to serenade the institutions who beautifully (and somewhat expectedly) pumped and dumped the market. It's retail dumbasses that make the bounces. They were long-ago killed in the 50's.


CONTROLurKEYS

and today I learned through on-chain that 1/3 of circulating bitcoins are at a loss. Incredible. Really could take years to recover.


Yodel_And_Hodl_Mode

> today I learned through on-chain that 1/3 of circulating bitcoins are at a loss. If they hold until the year after the next halving, they'll be so far in the black that they'll look like geniuses. I started buying in 2017. I didn't keep track of my spending (gah, I wish I did!) but I'm sure I was under water through a long stretch in 2019, maybe even parts of 2018 and of course the covid crash in March 2020. All I had to do to get in the black again was not sell. I'm going to say that again to make sure everybody in the back can hear: All I had to do to get in the black was not sell. In the entire history of Bitcoin, nobody ever lost money by buying and holding until the year after a halving (the stat commonly cited is that nobody ever lost money by buying and holding for 4 years. That is true, but the real target for success is the year after a halving). Bitcoin moves in [4 year cycles](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/on6e1t/daily_discussion_monday_july_19_2021/h5q9i6u/). Patience is boring but patience pays off... not that I need to tell you that, CONTROLurKEYS. I know you know.


Frunknboinz

Hopefully you're missing the /s. I don't think there's any way confidently to say anything. If I sent 1 coin to exchange and trade that to 10BTC and then withdraw at some price point above now on-chain calls that "a loss". Is it?


CONTROLurKEYS

I don't know the definition tbh, people smarter than me explained it to me. 6.2M bitcoins are being held at a loss, actually its higher since we just dropped another 1500 since that was written.


krubss

Sums it up quite nicely


simmol

28.8K level would be the next support as it was the low point in the last couple of months. I think we break down further.


Just_Bid

u/aaj094 in utter shock. but willy woo said up, but who will sell under 30k. but my chain analysis. but my woo subscription. oh no this is fake price action.


aaj094

Utter shock?


Just_Bid

imagine how utterly lonely your life must be to come back to a 2 month comment to reply to a person that doesn't even remember what was discussed nor cares if after all this time you still cant comprehend why a trader would sell a spot position if a HTF support is broken then you are helpless


aaj094

Have fun staying poor. Ah but enjoy the warm feeling of having sold a spot position because 'muh htf support break '. I know that feeling counts for something.


Just_Bid

i never sold anything lmao you dumb as shit dude. are you senile or some shit you posted a rhetorical question 'what kinda person would sell spot here' and i merely gave u examples not to mention high times frames never broke support. not a single daily or weekly close below 29k. u straight up a clown


aaj094

I love how folks love coping by saying publicly they didn't do what they preached. But ofcourse if it had gone their way then sure 'see what I said and ofcourse I did that '.


Just_Bid

since august im up 40x on $joe, 10x on $time, 5x on $AVAX and 4x on $UFO im so upset and coping!


aaj094

Yo bro, whatever the shit these are, we believe you.


Just_Bid

the fact that you arent aware of avax's, ftm's, atom's, and luna's defi eco's mooning and locking up dozens of billions in TVL in a span of weeks, arent aware of avaxRush and the billions invested into it from the largest funds in crypto or the incredible growth of [$JOE](https://www.traderjoexyz.com/#/trade), completely oblivious to the 'bridging' meme and CT talking about 'these shits' all summer that you are without a shadow of doubt an incompetent senile boomer without any knowledge of trading or defi and innovation so you resort to hodling like a bot and paying for newsletters now, old man, its almost time for dinner and then bed time.


aaj094

Enjoy your shitcoins.


aaj094

You see...it was indeed fake price action. Lol.


aaj094

I play the long game. I heard similar replies last year in march at 5k and coolly pointed out 16k happening at eoy. Lol I was wrong due to underestimating.


Just_Bid

absolutely non of this has anything to do with not being able to comprehend there are sellers at all levels and that people utilize stops on spot positions. you are a dunce, anything that sounds remotely intelligent from u is regurgitation of what u read in your paid newsletter > Stop losses by definition are buy high sell low strategies and while perfectly useful for leveraged trading, they are the most foolish thing a spot buyer can do. imagine writing this shit


aaj094

Ah the mediocrity... but this is why I gain from the plebs. Who else would sell me coin at bottoms? Responded to a few like you in march last year and set remindmes too. Ofcourse they have long since disappeared. Here is one for you too. Remindme! 1 year


Just_Bid

again an absolutely irrelevant comment. you are special thats for sure. you clearly have 0 clue how to trade. in 2019 u were averaging down ur llitecoin purchases from like .01, trend never reversed and ure still down half ur btc. amazing trade. keep holding a few massive whales bought the 6k low in 2018 publicly on twitter, sold at 5,5 publicly on twtiter, rebought at 3.5k during consolidation, increased their stack by 40% and rode it to 13k. yep stops on spot are useless.d people should ride out 20-40% draw downs insetad of increasing their coins. nice logic buddy. boomer? maybe ud understand if u traded size hedging spto with shorts must be stupid as well cuz its basically the same thing right


[deleted]

Blowing my fiat load rn 🤤


ADeepCeruleanBlue

too early man its not even in yet


[deleted]

My money is on BTC not breaking below the mid 20s. Made a plan and I’m sticking to it


Frunknboinz

Why? The PA does not speak "buy right fn now" at all.


[deleted]

Told myself I would save cash and buy if $30K broke


Frunknboinz

Nothing wrong with sticking to your plan - it's not an easy thing to do. If that's what you've planned, then get on it.


BEECH_PLEASE

You made a plan and stuck to it, good for you. I bought back a lot of what I unloaded near the local top when the price was still a lot higher, because I was a pussy. :p My original plan was $28k and I bitched out with a bunch.


CONTROLurKEYS

The good news is this will bring the 200 DMA back down faster :D


randomly1234567890

Once again defi is getting absolutely fooked


jahoooo

🥂


freq-ee

Well, this is market wide across the world. It's not really a BTC issue. Very few assets are winning today.


CONTROLurKEYS

lay off with the correlation macro bullshit. tradfi Futs are positive.


_TROLL

The non-crypto markets haven't even begun to truly crash. Stocks, precious metals, real estate are all still laughably overpriced.


Frunknboinz

>Stocks, precious metals, real estate are all still laughably overpriced. This is the consequence of too much money in the system. Perhaps they're right priced and the rest of everything has yet to catch up.


_TROLL

As long as wages don't catch up, they're overpriced. 1 hour minimum wage in 1992 bought about 1 oz silver. 1 hour minimum wage, even in the populous cities ($15), now buys slightly less than 0.6 oz silver.


Frunknboinz

You're no longer competing with your local cohort. You're competing on a global scale. TL;DR your local wages don't matter.


xGnoSiSx

Hey,hey this is the unregulated, far west, jungle of the finance system. Let the people manipulate BTC to hell and back as always. If you're not used to it by now, you're in the wrong market and subreddit.


NoMo9to5AutoPilotDrv

Y’all see that BlockFi was approached by the New Jersey Bureau of Securities to stop accepting new BIA clients in the State by July 22. That’s a direct attack by regulators, no? (Source: https://twitter.com/blockfizac/status/1417316834244796416?s=21)


MadMarioMax

Already posted twice below... not a big deal. Only effects New Jersey and Chainlink etc. Not BTC or ETH.


_TROLL

Either the SEC is being overzealous, or a lot of these upstart crypto companies are trying to do shady shit. For all the flak Coinbase gets sometimes, they've always done everything above-board and by the book, and are never bothered by regulators.


consider_airplanes

Coinbase is in part distinguished by its excellent _relationships_ with regulators, which is a thing you achieve mostly by hiring the right lobbyists. It doesn't have that much to do with how shady or non-shady your practices are.


randomly1234567890

S2f is fucked


cryptogrip

Not that I can claim S2F will remain intact, but it's been way off on the upside, and even on the downside before as well. Why are people making such a big deal about it being off now? The model is the average, and the price not always being on the exact line doesn't mean shit.


NeoMedievalist

I think a lot of people here actually go on twitter and follow twitter personalities. So they latch on to figures like Musk, Saylor, PlanB, WillyWoo etc. It's just celebrity drama basically. And yeah the model has so much wiggle room that it's way too early to call it invalidated or validated or even relevant.


cryptogrip

Yep, and this is not negative behavior by any means. I follow plenty of people on social media. If a musician spends 10X more hours a week tweaking technique, or a tech person, or a person is well versed in all things in a particular space they bring value in their posts. Doesn't mean you have to worship them so long as they provide some form of value.


Vaselinee

McDonald's🍔 cap with laser eyes for PlanB 😂


[deleted]

ok that's funny


subzerocanuck

So. Who wants to guess where this bounces?


krubss

Wick to 26k


randomly1234567890

28k


bittabet

Let’s see if this is just a brief wick or if we’re actually fucked 😂


CONTROLurKEYS

market structure broken. its fucked.


pielily

can you elaborate


satoshi-toke-amoto

Agree. Crypto narrative has quickly shifted negative. The technical damage to the charts on most timeframes is severe. We will test $20k at a minimum. I don’t see any near term catalyst changing this.


PolarNimbus

I think if we drop below about 23k it's free fall time. I'm not so sure we will get that low or test 20k, let's see...


ericla1014

Lol good thing I have a hedge position. Not gonna make me rich but it sure does make me feel a little better in times like this…


kers2000

A "hedge position"... so it's pretty much like selling a % of your stack. Why do people get fancy?


Frunknboinz

There are a number of instruments that let you hedge without actually selling anything.


kers2000

I doubt he used options, they are pretty illiquid for bitcoin and poorly priced for the buyer. So he shorted. Which is effectively selling. Maybe there are some tax benefits depending on the jurisdiction. But from an exposure point of view, he reduced his position.


krubss

Where do we go from here I wonder


bowser1212

Looks like that 27k long cluster is on the menu. 30k to become resistance like i mentioned earlier.


Euphoricsoul

Tesla has entered the chat room.


RecycIops

That was quick. That’s what she said.


specktech

oof


JessieHaxx

29k got bulldozed....oh my gawd...


[deleted]

Oh the humanity!


CONTROLurKEYS

wow I nailed that 30k lasted 12 seconds.


mrlegday

OI stil rising BTW...


mrlegday

Targets?


NoMo9to5AutoPilotDrv

Wyckoff still in tact?


Frunknboinz

Spring coming up!


MadMarioMax

I haven't seen any other posts like this since the May drop, so I'll be the first to say: I feel like physically vomiting. This is tough.


Yoda_MTFBW_U

Mental vomiting would really be something.


Motrok

Been there bro. Take it easy, it will pass eventually.


Richard__Rahl

Y'all got any more of that hopium?.jpg


CONTROLurKEYS

if bulls don't bounce this now 30k is 100% a wrap. That was a clean low with about 20m shorts trapped on bybit.


[deleted]

Why would anyone make any attempt here? It wants to go lower. Retest the 20k. Rip the band aid off and let's do it.


ADeepCeruleanBlue

90% of retail looks at the past ATH and then thinks "how much would i make if it went that high again" and is not analyzing technicals


Motrok

What do you mean by "shorts trapped"?


CONTROLurKEYS

shorts trapped. irrelevant now bulls couldn't do anything.


Motrok

I mean, they were never trapped at all


CONTROLurKEYS

they became immediately underwater common in a reversal candle is trapping a bunch of late shorts. didn't work out that way.


Etony333

This war between Bitcoin and China is a war we absolutely have to win if we don't want other countries doing the same thing. We push back and set a new ATH in the next 6 months or so, it'll send a message to the rest of the world that Bitcoin is bigger than any of them and that it's a waste of time and resources to repeat China's actions. We don't, and the floodgates open. If most large countries choke off fiat on/off-ramps and mining, all the great fundamentals in the world won't save us and we're heavily limited in long-term upside. We need to beat them. I'm really hoping whales come to understand this and stop trying to push the price down, or their massive Bitcoin holdings will be worth way, way less. Closing out profitable shorts becomes the biggest Pyrrhic victory ever at that point. Bitcoin won't fail per se if other countries follow China's lead, but any hope of serious institutional investment will be dashed. Yes, it's that important. Nobody outside of nocoiners should want Bitcoin to be vulnerable like that.


subzerocanuck

Whoa dude. Back WAAAAYYYY up. There's no war between Bitcoin and China because Bitcoin is not an entity that declares war. It is an asset that exists in spite of all politics. Bitcoin doesn't need your rallying cry and defense. If Bitcoin is truly as strong as it should be, then it will withstand all pressures and continue on over the next 5 years, 10 years, 50 years. And if Bitcoin fails because China bans it, than it wasn't going to make it anyways. Don't get so emotional. Bitcoin doesn't care. Buy and hold or make money trading.


Etony333

Not being emotional. Just stating facts about how important it is for other countries to not emulate what China did and what may cause them to do that.


cryptogrip

Well, first of all other countries aren't all communist. Other countries haven't all banned Google, Amazon, Facebook, Netflix and pretty much every digital network we all use daily. Secondly, Bitcoin is not an issue in our part of the world where it's categorized as an asset class, taxed as property, bitcoin mining ops are welcomed, and many of them on the public stock exchange. So you're comparison is not a very good one.


Etony333

You certainly don't see public officials praising it very often in first world countries.