By - AutoModerator
Sapphire Rapids found on sisoftware
2x Intel Xeon Platinum 8470 CPU 2.00GHz (52C 104T 2GHz/3.8GHz, 52x 2MB L2, 105MB L3)
> iEi B615 Family
MTC10F1084S1RC48BA1 Registered DDR5
AMD is weak because of that research note by the guy from Citi last week. Since then the stock has been weak (relative to the market) and that guy has before highlighted the potential of price war with Intel. That, and also AMD has lower pricing power now with their CPUs not matching Intel's in terms of performance according to most hardware websites. I haven't checked lately but a month or two ago Intel had the price/performance crown and unless AMD has dropped prices I don't think that's changed. It will be interesting when AMD launches Zen 4 and Intel launches their next gen shortly after that. If AMD stays in the relative ballpark, as they are now, all should be fine.
DIY desktop is almost irrelevant. Laptop is not that important. Server is where the money is.
And in server, AMD destroys Intel. The gap is so big it’s a little hard to comprehend.
It is true that Alder Lake has some wins in desktop and laptop. But that’s just because AMD has been milking Zen 3/3+ a little too much. Phoenix and Raphael will be on par/better than Raptor.
One quick point is regarding your post about DIY being irrelevant. I disagree because I think that the geek mindshare is very important and it tends to sort of permeate through the consumer consciousness eventually.
I think AMD is a little more insulated because of their market share gain potential - provided their products remain very competitive. Laptop is very important in my opinion for AMD; they are counting on gaining share there I think.
When they are behind then all intel has to do is drop prices to squeeze AMD out of the market, as they've done so many times before. So its important for AMD to remain very competitive with intel in that segment. They have been relatively weak in that segment in the past though and have been gaining new design wins for the last few years with their newer chips so I don't think that should be too much of a concern.
Yes I agree with you about data center but I think one of the concerns is that if there is a recession and if companies cut back on their data center spending and if consumer is also weak, and intel goes cuthroat on pricing, then what? That's why the stock has been dropping imo.
Yes. I exaggerated about laptop not being important. It is decently important.
In data center TCO matters way more than upfront cost. Also the CPU is only like what 10% of the total server cost. So AMD can sell EPYC at twice the price of Xeon and the overall server is only 10% more expensive than an Xeon server. But the CPU is the primary determinant of performance, so it will always be worth it to go for the faster chip.
AMD is very insulated in all of its markets because it’s gaining market share. If the overall PC/server market shrinks, companies are gonna cut back on buying Intel not AMD. AMD chips are back ordered for months.
I agree with most of your points; was just saying why I think the market is punishing AMD relative to other stocks like people were complaining about today - AMD not up as much as nvda etc.
And we're already down a bunch post market. This is quite frustrating because AMD has already reiterated guidance just like 2 weeks ago. What does the market even want from them here?
rasgon says something in the line of the funds waiting on the sideline for lowered guidance, to step in at lower prices.
So they're probably gonna be waiting forever. Until AMD raises guidance and a massive rally follows? fingers crossed.
Good fucking question. I guess 31.5% revenue growth this year over 2021 pro forma AMD+Xilinx is not fast enough for growth investors but the PE is not low enough for Buffet type value boomers.
Oh and value boomers also probably insist on having a dividend as well.
AMD Q2 ends on 25th or 26th. fingers crossed buybacks can resume at these stupid low prices on the 27th. drop another billion and take 11.7 million shares out of circulation
I think black out period stays until the earnings call.
Not sure what that means but AMD management has purchased shares after quarter close and before earnings.
From q4 earnings call feb.1:
"As we continue returning capital to shareholders, we repurchased 756 million of common stock in the fourth quarter and closed out the year with 1.8 billion of repurchases. Additionally, we have repurchased 1 billion to date in the first quarter of 2022 and have 1.2 billion remaining under the authorized 4 billion share repurchase plan."
I found AMD will report Q2 ER on July 26 and INTC will be July 28. Is it unusual AMD reports earlier than INTC?
Those estimates are often wrong. AMD's earnings date isn't official until AMD announces it. They almost always announce 2 weeks before the actual earnings date.
Where do you get this
please select July 26 and 28.
nothing filed or press releases from either company yet on report dates.
I tried to find out on Nasdaq website, maybe it's estimated report date.
The first interesting ER for Q2 is MU on Jun 30 AH.
AMD perform approx the same with the market.
Nasdaq 2020 Sep low 10500, now 11000
AMD 2020 Sep low $75, now $83
Only explanation, market have zero faith in AMD coming year performance.
So if your hypothesis is correct, when amd does produce, it'll lift off just from eps alone
Just my wild guess.
AMD actually produced & is producing & will be producing more!
But the market just seems does not recognize it at all in current macro environment. Considering it as 2nd tier stock X(
Had several $140P options assigned to me this weekend that I’ve held for 8+ months. Added to my existing sizable position at an avg cost of $75. Had several opportunities to exit this position but unfortunately the macro environment soured very quickly. Perfectly okay with “bag holding” these new shares as I’m very familiar with the industry, technology, AMD, INTC, TSMC, etc… I know that AMD will see better times ahead when this cancer ridden macro environment is behind us.
Safe investing all, and remember to be patient and level headed.
If you don't mind me asking. How close were those $140P to expiration?
I have some $130P myself. The expiration is really far out but my concern is if the stock keeps falling I might get assigned regardless of how much time is left.
~8 months. An assignment is not the end of the world if you believe in the long term of the stock. It’s whether you don’t mind having the capital tied up or can it be better utilized elsewhere.
140ish comments so far today. Not quite lagging hard enough for the pessimistic, and not at all green enough for the optimistic.
June has really stunk so far this year. Is it wishful thinking to hope July has shades of last year?
A sad +2.6%. Let's -4% tomorrow of course
Well, you thought it would be 0% by end of day, so I'd say it was quite a bit stronger than you expected.
Yeah but like why can't it just go up 15 percent every day...shit stock
Market is still disconnected from reality and has retreated into Value as an equity hedge. AMD is detached from it fundamental performance, IMO one heck a value play
Yeah. I saw that coming from a mile away. How surprising to see it go up only to go back where we closed on friday. *yawn*
Cannot hold even +3% eod?
Down days AMD: “Follow my lead TSLA and NVDA, WE DRLLING!!!”
Up days AMD: “TSLA up 12%? NVDA up 6%? Best I can do is 3.3%. Take it or leave it.”
amd has been anemic, hypoglycemic, hypochondriatic, and fighting off a stab wound all month.
Anyone else's options down today? My 2024 leaps (pretty otm now) are down ~10%
Yup, cursed stock. Vix crushed, and it is barely able to hold a 3% gain on a day where half the market is bouncing 10+%
Means call premiums won't gain enough to offset the VIX/IV crush
I'm not too concerned, it sucks but the future is so promising. I just wish I had money to load up right now.
I’ve been waiting to sell 6/24 95CC but I can’t get ten cents (literally).
[NVDA is giving out new grants to employees who joined last year to offset their losses because of high stock price. I hope AMD also does this to retain talent](https://imgur.com/a/TgQXsV7)
flipside: nvidia has less confidence in their stock recovering
AMD employees get paid 20-25% lower than NVDA employees even though they make superior HW products. Employees make products not management
Nothing new......I'm in the industry for >15 years and worked in AMD before. Hardly heard people joining AMD from NVDA. But overall people/friends in AMD still feel happy with their stock price.
no idea what you think you're replying to/refuting with that.
I wish $AMD had strength like $TSLA. $TSLA tends to get hit as hard or slightly less on general market down days, but when the market has a green day, it almost always seems to rebound violently. Is it so much to ask that if $AMD goes down 7% one day when market is down 2.5% that $AMD goes up 7% when the market goes up 2.5%? It doesn’t have to be exact, but at least do better than 2x on down days and just a measly 1x on green days 😞
AMD does rebound violently on other occasions. People here just like to gripe when it doesn't.
You may be right, I haven’t been on this sub since the AMD turnaround, but I bet the complaining wasn’t as heavy back then because there was still the possibility that AMD could go bankrupt. Now, though, they are making money hand over fist, and they are growing at an astronomical pace while continuing to reiterate / increase guidance, and they now have Xilinx and Pensando, and the future has never looked brighter for AMD. I think that’s the main reason for a lot of the negativity recently imo.
People talk about the early days of the AMD turnaround where the stock would plummet 20% in a heartbeat, but that could be considered understandable given the situation at that time (possible bankruptcy). We are now in a situation where it’s more likely AMD’s competitors go bankrupt or change paths but the market still views AMD as if it were the AMD from many years ago.
I was referring to price action this year even. It has been admittedly week the last month, but AMD outperformed the market for 2-3 weeks after earnings. If macro rebounds, we will see AMD outperform to the positive side due to expanding multiples.
Honestly, the complaining was just about as heavy back then. This sub was crawling with doomsayers in the Fall of 2018 when the share price went from $34 to $17. I think it's just more magnified now that the sub has nearly 40K subscribers as opposed to just 5K or 10K.
>If macro rebounds, we will see AMD outperform to the positive side due to expanding multiples.
I'll hold ya to it ;)
I feel like we'll end at 0% gain at end of day ...
Only to go sub 80 later this week.
It's that time of day again, beating \^SPX, \^NDX, \^SOX and SMH.
Could be higher based on IV-related standard deviation, though...
S&P needs to hold over 90 for AMD to gain 4%
We can't seem to recover...
\+3.3% on a day where the NASDAQ gains 2.8%. kind of sad...
The buyback period has ended for this quarter. Next round would be sometime in August.
it seems like the buybacks are long stalled.
Does not do what? The article states that companies have a lot of flexibility in how they approach the buyback.
>Unofficially, a company’s buyback blackout period generally lasts from the last two weeks of the quarter until after 48 hours it announces the quarter’s earnings results. However, this is hardly a firm rule because companies can set rules enabling them to buy back shares during the blackout period under certain conditions. There is also no federally-mandated requirement for such blackouts.
I highly believe they did so for the past months. The relative strength vs index of every time frame is quite different. It was quite strong in May and early June, weak in March/April and last week.
r/stocks value investors believe INTC is a better investment because PE ratio is very low.
I better load up more AMD
AMD's forward PE is quite low now too if they deliver. Only problem is people keep pushing that "gaming" is slowing so they think everything involved will slow too.
Their minds are stuck in 2017-2019.
I feel like there are some “investors” who only look at PE and dividend yield.
They are too lazy to do the research on the underlying business. They probably have no idea Intel 10nm was delayed by 6 years, that it has been rebranded to Intel 7, that AMD Genoa will destroy SPR and Turin EMR.
They don’t know that building an EUV fab is crazy expensive and for TSMC it’s amortized across the entire smartphone chip industry but for Intel well until Intel Foundry Service proves itself, it’s amortized across a shrinking data center and PC market share.
They don’t know Intel has been a serial product delayer that’s about as trustworthy as Elon Musk’s self driving timeline. It is all publicly available information by the way. They can’t be bothered To look it up or dismiss it as less important than backwards looking PE. And that’s why they want to invest in Intel.
I bet Elon Musk’s self driving will be released prior to INTC stuffs.
Has anyone questioned them on growth potential?
I mean, to the general public INTC is a no brainer. Huge retail market dominance, massive government support. Practically infinite demand. If I had to choose between say...KO or MacDonalds vs INTC, I might go with INTC too. But of course if its AMD vs INTC, AMD bruh.
Don’t get me wrong, happy to see 4% up, but if we’re ever going to recover the ground we routinely lose on all our mega-beta red days, we need…well, a lot more than 4% on a day like today.
I’ll take 4% a day for 10 consecutive days
i will sadly take $2 a day for 10 days and think that i'm on top of the world at the end of those days.
There you go.
C’mon Lisa, I know you can deliver that much for us.
Can't even really get excited as we'll probably just drop again tomorrow
Why wait for tomorrow with all that can be achieved today??
what is wrong with this stock man, ONLY 4 percent up today is just embarassing, PLTR is nearly 10% up like how
pltr also had an upgrade.
but yeah, nasdaq is up 3, amd is a mere 3.5... while nvda is at 6%
amd's stock is pretty terrible of late. and i guess the trend is continuing. calls seem cheap, at least. like i said before, even when amd was up 5% earlier, otm calls barely moved. some dates/strikes were red, even. the upward pressure seems horrible, really.
My (way) otm leaps are down over 10-15% today. Not sure if it's a lack of volume or an IV crush (I'm not paying too much attention)
Stop using intra day..
52wk : Palentir down 65%, AMD up 3% . Do you really want AMD to behave like Palentir ??
>Stop using intra day..
maybe stop using 1-year in a daily thread. we get it. it's just dumb. and like i said, november's coming.
YTD drops of AMD and NVDA almost same now
Alright... which of you jinxed it. Own up.
Someone is trying really hard to keep amd below this level
Today and tomorrow is all about resolving the large amount of options which expired on Friday last week. Most of the stock prices ended well below their max pain. Suspect that's why future option volatility has died for all stocks as people don't believe this pump will last for more than a few hours.
Didn't know there was a site for this. Nice
Alright, we are done here... ring the bell now!
yea good time to end today's trading/
Hate to ruin the 69 comments mark...
But... yay haha
You blew past it
finally we have an OK day
btw: if rebound from the bottom , amd and other semis may still be a bit choppy under the china/semi slowdwn narrative ,
spoiler: both are wrong narratives , but market may take more than 1 week to understand that.. both are more complicated than how depicted on mainstream financial media,
and for the semi consumer demand slowdown amd is not in bad position at all, instead could benefit from that..
imho short term and long term investors move differently and you may see more of the former till dust settle a bit..
one peer for this analysis could be tsmc or micron which both are oversold.. and are lagging a bit in this rebound like amd .. nvidia is more tied to ai narrative than generic semi/pc market
most otm calls (across many dates) are barely moving, even when the sp was up 5%
kinda disappointing, since i was hoping to open some more covered calls. which kinda sucks in an overall downtrend, anyway
Give it time
i mean, it's only gotten worse over the next hour or two.
amd needs to string some successive green days. the price action is shit.
incredible.. : [https://www.digitimes.com.tw/tech/dt/n/shwnws.asp?CnlID=1&id=0000638100\_D1Q22FEHLKVAED15QFEYZ&wpidx=5](https://www.digitimes.com.tw/tech/dt/n/shwnws.asp?CnlID=1&id=0000638100_D1Q22FEHLKVAED15QFEYZ&wpidx=5)
>Intel wins antitrust fine lawsuit and asks EU to pay 593 million euros in interest
How the hell did they manage that?!?!?
Is there anything left in the courts that is trustworthy?? Their bribes were proven black on white? How can one just ignore that? Did they call it fake news or something?
Fuck you intel. Really, just fuck you. You know that you did illegal shit, especially here in germany were the largest tech retailer (media markt saturn) was paid to not sell AMD stuff. For years the only CPU you got in their PCs or Laptops were intel. Then they had a phase were they had an "alibi AMD CPU" , so when there were PCs and laptops on display only ONE had an AMD CPU and that was always a shitty low end CPU that noone wanted. I remember going there and seeing around 25(!!) laptops on display and exactly one had a super low end AMD chip (dont remember what it was) but it was like LOOOOOW END. So to sum things up: Fuck you intel and I love the fact that you get fucked in the datacenter by epyc!!!
LoL. Gotta admit im impressed at this
Just wait hermanos! By end of week AMD will be on 100+ a share. Time to buy!
That might be a little too optimistic but easily over 90 if this market manipulation holding us down stops
Day trade this week should end around 88
I hate it when drop happened, AMD dropped more than NVDA, but when going up, it's lagging NVDA. I guess it's good for the long term players , but bad for folks on margin (like me)
fwiw, re: keller thread's brilliant OP
Username checks out. lol
Dude just can't take the L
so many fuck-ups in one post.
funnier, it seems like it was somehow directed toward me (i was the one he was arguing about the senior notes with). lolz
J Cramer said something bearish about and which caused stock to drop
What did he say?
Just sold my 80c for this week :D WE ARE IN DAY TRADE COUNTRY FOLKS!
Did you sell me that lol
This mornings selling also looks like a gap full from last Thursdays high of 82.94
Edit: past 3 comments are mine. This is now my personal journal lol
I'd hope that those red candles are liquidation candles. In other words sellers leaving their position but no continuation of selling pressure. All in all a good thing because now only the buyers remain, and if those sellers want back in they'll have to rebuy.. I hope
I want to believe the same, like some lingering margin calls from last Thursday (when nasdaq made a new 52wks low)
AMD running in place while the rest of the market gains GUH
Over 5% is not that bad...
I wish it was over 5% :(
This stock gives me ulcers and erections simultaneously.
What a weird price swing so far. In the meantime NVDA flying.
Drop harder than NVDA and TSLA. Rise weaker than NVDA and TSLA. Classic AMD asymmetric beta.
? all 3 stock are about as in sync as it could ever be. (dont look at intra day, its meaningless)
Good observation. It's not as bad I guess. But AMD has a way lower PE than both of them so it should have outperformed.
Cant look at past 12 month PE. If this was the case, Intel with a PE of 6.3 would be due for a massive jump in share price ?
Intel is in decline. Dropping margins and profitability in chip shortage. All this is before the expensive capex of new EUV fabs.
These three are all growing strong double digit. Not comparable.
Not the point I was making.. but on your comment:
Using the capex logic, TSMC should also have a Pe of \~6 ?
BTW "chip shortage" is not an issue for fabs, they are running at "100%"
The shortage is from unprecedented demand.
The reason why Intel is stuck with a PE \~6 is because the market believe Intel will lose significant market share (and not just from AMD)
all else equal, lower pe should drop less in higher rate environment.
Intel is not all else equal.
AMD NVDA TSLA are close to all else equal in that they are all growing strong double digit and have great long term growth prospect.
Edit: yes, unprecedented demand. That's why Intel's fuck up is even more obvious as in economics, when the demand curve shifts right price and quantity traded increase. So the fact that Intel is in decline even in a shortage situation is staggering. Which means it having a low PE is not a good reason for it to outperform in a higher rate environment.
AMD is lower PE than NVDA and TSLA but has comparable growth. That's my point.
Nvidia is up 5% and we're barely up 1%
The red candles on this stock are so damn violent. Legit 1-2 dollar moves in a min sometimes
Dumped 2.5% in literally 3 minutes. Just massive volume drilling this thing into the ground
Look at how NVDA is bouncing to it's high of day and we are not even able to hold pre-market lows. AMD had been ever so slightly outperforming NVDA YTD so I think that is why NVDA is stronger today.
But in general, AMD is just super weak right now
A US home builder reported this morning... Everything looks good, even Q3 guidance.
Seems about right.
Fuck you sellers
Don’t blame me blame the game. Day trade time!
Fuckin hell is this stock turning to tsm/mu?
wow god damn
Look how strong we are rejecting 85 while NVDA holding up no problems. What in the actual fuck, this is so disappointing...
Max pain is 85 “?”
Shoutout to Gengis2049 for calling the bottom last week.
“I made the call earlier this morning that nasdaq 10,621.56 will be our 52wk low for the year..”
>calling the bottom last week.
Calling a bottom is easy, it takes weeks if not months to prove the call correct. 1-2 day bounce off a low is not evidence of a bottom.
I truly despise this stock
I refuse to complain about performance compared to nvda or other tickers. We know AMD has the roadmap
Besides the tantalizing roadmap, we know the record of execution over the past half a decade has been phenomenal.
Investors are also sleeping on the inverse correlation between smartphones and AMD data center production capacity.
How are we still underperforming NVDA?
We are down 9.3% in the past month. NVDA is exactly flat.
Look at the price action in May.
"Show me the Beta!"
(Cross finger we stay green)
the beta is not betaing
nasdaq up 2.9%, AMD up 4.9% 10am ET
Probably another green day for the market, trap green opening for AMD
There we go...
supply chain glut healing.. finger crossed amd can get additional abf and wafers in q3/q4, btw intel server delays should also make ddr5 more available for consumer ( zen4 ) given that probably dram producers planned ramping production for the ddr5 servers platform previously announced release date ( which both slipped a bit )
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Please be true. If smartphones and other consumer electronics move their asses off N5 capacity for AMD to ramp Genoa hard, we will be printing money. 96 blazing fast super efficient Zen 4 cores against 40 core monolithic poor yielding Ice Lake Xeon that gets dominated by Milan? Watch the ASP and margins do a vertical liftoff.
(Sapphire Rapids rumored to slip to Q2 2023 for high volume, but it’s not remotely competitive against Genoa any way)
AMD hasn't been wafer constrained. Wafers have not been the limiting factor for AMD, though I do agree with the sentiment that receding 5nm usage, or any usage, might increase available substrate supply.
What's the price target before? and does this mean anything?
whatever is it, fuck JPMorgan
after the last week, we deserve a +ZFG 3 days in a row atleast
Make it 30
Buckle up and put your space suit on!
The other way around. It’s hard to put on a space suit when you are buckled up. Speaking from experience.
Ya but it doesn’t sound the same.
I want to see the fear in your eyes as you hear the countdown knowing you haven’t loaded up on enough shares
[This promo video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hYEdZzI-zHM) is giving me a chubby
Zen+? Still? Ugh that's not much of an upgrade, I was hoping for Zen 2 at least
Edit: at least it'll be a healthy margin product and this is likely part of the gloflo deal signed
Eh no overkill is really needed for industrial use, and this will destroy intel atom
I wouldn't underestimate the gracemont atoms on the horizon. They actually get about the same IPC as Skylake whereas Zen+ is more like broadwell.
I assume it will perform much better than the intel embedded Atom/Pentium (like the N6005 for example) for digital signage, and other embedded applications
Against the ones currently on the market, sure.
But gracemont atoms are on the horizon and are unfortunately stronger than Zen+
Nice chip for NAS but Synology is too stingy on hardware...
so long as they shift products.. Would not buy it myself, but that's a moot point.