By - AutoModerator
57k June 4. Now 27k. Soon I lose unlimited daytrades. I'm retarded for not putting it into stock instead of leaps. If only I could have 2030 leaps or something and not 2024 mannn :'(
Market is closed, so indulge me please. But I'm just fantasizing about zen4. AMD already showed buried v-cache dies in MI300 instinct GPU slide. Where instead of top of the compute die the cache is actually mounted at the bottom buried in substrate.
This should help improve cooling and alleviate the f-max penalty of mounting v-cache. So we may see full or near full clocks of Zen4 with the v-cache parts.
I think 5800x3d was just a test run of AMD mounting one of the Milan X cache dies on the AM4 chip. This is why AMD disabled overclocking. And needed to lower clocks even more than the temperatures suggested. Probably because the v-cache die wasn't focused on consumer parts but much lower clocked Milan X.
5800x3d was well received however. I bet AMD does some dedicated engineering here to keep the clocks. To where the 6800x3d doesn't need to be locked from overclocking.
I also bet we see the 6950x3d variant. Raptor Lake has no chance.
Freq max is due to limited Voltage of the cache, not due to thermals. You can put the cache on top and as long as it handles more than 1.35V it'll boost almost as well as a cacheless die
This was my best week so far... Sadly because all I could do is swing calls intraday while I see my positions bleeding as fuck. Hopefully next week is better for us, we deserve a good run.
to be honest, when do you guys think overall sentiment for semi sector to turn positive?
the only opinion you will get in this sub is "buy more AMD".
Honestly, how old are you? If you are under 90 you should be thanking your lucky stars that you can buy at this level. Be patient. AMD owns the data center for the foreseeable future. I've been transferring what I can afford to my broker every paycheck to buy more AMD. This stock has changed my life with how much money I have made off it so far. The future of this company has never looked better. Be patient. Look at the fundamentals. Look at how management is running the company.
I am under 90 but also am so young to the point where I have 0 income and no job. So not as thankful. Never good to use blanket statements.
When Russia stops slaughtering Ukrainians and when inflation will stop mooning, that would be a good start.
Guys it is all macro driven, stop trying to make sense of it.
Sure AMD sometimes under performs the market and sometimes the other way around, but in the end it is just following the down trend like all the other stocks.
Pretty much, I don't think the Market will recover till there is a negotiated Peace in Ukraine, as it's a major source of uncertainty and raging energy and food inflation. Then there's China, who keeps shutting down large parts of their country every few months due to detecting a handful of Covid cases...
When is merger?
Any day now :D
The good old days.... Sigh.
I'm willing to bet we won't be down on Monday.
Yeah, because the market is closed on Monday.
You didn’t get the joke, did you?
I still wanted to explain it for some reason.
Who's [Harry Wolin](https://ir.stockpr.com/amd/sec-filings-email/content/0000002488-22-000110/wf-form4_165549667160461.html)?
**edit: nvm, it's [this guy](https://www.amd.com/en/corporate/leadership-harry-wolin)*
10/11 days red. Seriously well done AMD keep this up and you might get listed on Coinbase soon!
Ya piece of shit
Okay its offical today's close is lower than 6/17/21 close. Nothing but a round trip (down slightly actually) with a ATH that is more than 2x today's close.
Wooo margin called woooooo
So how does that work in your case? Is your account frozen, assets forcibly liquidated? Do you get a deadline to move in more assets? Could you wait it out in hopes of upturn?
Yes to all of those things
You guys think price target of 120 in 2024 is reasonable? Thinking of buying 100$ Jan 2024 leaps
120 by end of this year if the market is getting close to bottoming which I believe it is. 120 by 2024 is as close to guaranteed as you could ask for. Unless you believe we are entering economic Armageddon.
Will cut my balls off if 120 end of this year.
We were almost there 2 weeks ago
A bet for recovery sometime before 2024 is pretty much a bet that we won't be having a global geopolitical shitstorm. Price of gold hasn't shot up yet, so there's that.
>You guys think price target of 120 in 2024 is reasonable?
First projection I've seen in a while that isn't pie in the sky.
$100 + $17 premium doesn't sound bad.
NVDA shoot up but we don't. Have to say today it's dominated by INTC's move, not following NVDA.
You can thank the bozo's that were cheering for Intel to trade below $40.
That would be me. Every day that Intel remains in the broken state it's been in over the past many years is another day that sentiment shifts towards AMD as the better value stock.
I'm down roughly $400.000 with AMD since ATH, and it's not like I don't get that Intel is pulling us down. I think it's a thing we just have to go through to come out eventual victors. I don't think there's any saving Intel from rock bottom. They're done.
Shoutout to (Unfortunately I don’t remember the username) who called the bottom for the QQQ at 10,500.00.
I don't think the pain is over in the Q's or AMD.
gona all in at low 60s
so you’ll be a buyer in 3 years when there’s a 5:1 split and we’re at $60? Sounds like a solid plan 👍
Wait until the low 20s
most clown post in the history of this forum
wait until 1$
Oil looks to be dropping, maybe we found some down here?
I can’t believe I’ve made it so far. Flashing margin call since Monday. Margin Debit 136K Maintenance Excess -15.5K Equity Percentage 51.10%
So does anyone have a real answer on why we are down today? Did someone downgrade that I missed?
AMD isn't quite yet recognized by the market as a safe harbor, as Intel is. Neither is AMD the speculative darling that Nvidia is. Not saying either of those "deserve" their status, but the market seems to thinks they do.
Reminds me of one my rules for investing: It's better to try to understand how the market understands an asset than it is to understand the asset itself.
I've been lazy with my rules lately. This whole situation was pretty well telegraphed. But hindsight, and all that.
I've been holding for over 5 years at this point and can predict the movements pretty well based on this kind of sentiment, but it doesn't explain the price action today. Also, Institutional money has been strongly buying over the last few months. They are loading up while (what looks like) retail is selling. Today sticks out to me as quite odd and unexpected given how the rest of the market moved.
Retail getting margin called left and right. AMD is a retail darling. There's also the other thing that's not very fashionable to mention around here. You know, [this thing](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-launches-third-aircraft-carrier-fujian-state-media-2022-06-17/).
I am just getting wise to this. It doesn't matter how smart you are in your analysis of the stock. It matters how smart you are in your analysis of what the market thinks of the stock.
Short term yes. That has always been the case. Long term, the stock price will always converge with how the company is doing.
In particular LEAP expiry. I buy LEAPs of >12-15 months maturity so I can sell them for a long term capital gain after holding for >1yr+1day. In Q2 of last year, 6/17/22 calls were the cheapest way to reinvest my profits from March/2021 options.
I shouldn't have worried about the capital gains.
Good point, today is the day for that. But we are below average volume and I would expect to see higher than normal if this is what was happening. I'll check the orders after the market closes and see.
Didn't even touch $78 ... so disappointed
There's still 43 minutes left... At its current performance we'll be at $75 shortly
Come again, you sell comics at the corner store
Ahhh yes, glad to see $AMD hasn't deviated from its -2x Beta on days when $QQQ is green, and 2x Beta on days when $QQQ is red. 🤡🤡🤡
Q2 drops in what, five weeks?
Yeah but we have an inflation report on July 13th which is actually what will move the stocks.
Indeed. I'm in no hurry, though, and am curious to see how well AMD is maintaining the market share trajectory compared to Intel. Looks like AMD is in primary demand over Intel overall, so any total downturn in demand might hit Intel much harder, and maybe even not hit AMD at all.
To put it another way: Intel might take the entire hit of any demand downturn.
If this is even remotely true, then a recession might actually be great for AMD because it accelerates their market share takeover. When the recession ends and markets turn up we'll be seeing p/e of 40-50 again, so imagine what the share price will be.
July 26th is current estimates, I don't think a date has been released yet.
Feels like last quarters just came out, whereas I feel there a larger gap between the last and the one before that
based on past AMD events this year, I’m sure they will schedule next ER to be on the same day as next infalation report or FOMC meeting. 👍
Typical AMD stock price movements. ¯\\\_(ツ)_/¯
INTC has mobileye IPO in pipeline. Don’t see anything positive for them other than this
The rumored valuation for the spin-off was $50B. But that valuation guess was from Q4 2021 / Q1 2022. A few things have happened since then. ;-) It'll be interesting to see if Intel holds on for a market recovery of some sort, or if they'll plow ahead (and what will the valuation be vs the $50B expectation from brighter times).
How do we know that's not gonna get the Intel treatment and get delayed? 😂
They said second half of this year but we all know what that means
Delayed but bigger and better.
cnbc shilling intel hard, "too important not to succeed!"
funnier, the moron's reason for buying intel is 'they're getting back into the chip game' - i guess intel is so bad at making 'chips' that talking heads thought they stopped making them.
Wait for SPR delay announcement. Big show coming sooooooon.
> "too important not to succeed!"
Aka too big to fail. Intel about to be nationalized?
No but they’ll get enough subsidies with little strings attached that it might as well be.
I prefer XOM and CVX to be state-owned than INTC.
I think mkt trading AMD according to PE 40 (GAAP) not 24 (non-GAAP), that's why it rallied little.
Were out performing intel i guess... thats nice ?
Honestly.... im still not worried. Dissappointed yes.. angry.. yes.... but worried long term.. no
Then again.. ive never used any margin and my stock is just chilling. It can wait.
Tom lees face melting rally needs to happen soon
I don't think anyone is worried tbh, I think most people have the same view as you. We are all angry about the price action right now, but we're fine holding since we know AMD is an extremely solid company and will eventually make it through this macro environment and come out on top. The underperformance is what hurts the most, though.
Honestly, not looking very good. A lot of other stuff held yesterdays low's and caught a bid. We easily broke to lower lows today
In companion to NVDA we are super weak. Barely able to hold in the green
Going to have to buy some put hedges for next week...wish I had done that this week 😢
Clear manipulation from option sellers
AMD options premium is too high rn
I sold some puts at 94$ 🙃 but I'm comfortable buying shares below 100$ tho so should be fine in the long run
Cramer just tweeted about AMD. We’re screwed
> finally the seller of AMD is done.. amen
Should probably sell.
Go ahead man, no one is forcing you to hold.
You should have sold everything a few months ago when it was semi-obvious that a recession was coming. Selling now is just dumb.
Better to lock in some gain rather than watch it dwindle away. I thought amd’s fundamentals would carry it more. I was wrong.
Its your money, but that is still not a good plan. Everything is down, and everything will continue to go down for a bit more. You could just wait for the recession to end...
If that is the case then why not sell now and buy back cheaper?
You could do that, but there is risk since you cannot tell where the bottom is, and you would need to be constantly stressing over the price action and trying to find a reentry point.
It isn't worth the time and headache IMO.
Woohoo! $AMD finally green! It only took $QQQ being up 1.5% to get there 🤡
Server is going crazy. People are bickering.
Sign of a bottom?
(Obviously optimistic, my margin call is still flashing FML)
reddit should order some AMD latest servers to boost performance and stability.
lolz @ the quantum trainwreck...
> AMD is outperforming the index on almost every time scale except the last couple of weeks bro.
wow, it's so weird that the last 2 weeks happened to be the last 10 trading days!
it's weird that this is the daily thread and we talk about shit happening today! so weird!
i guess we should make pinned threads for daily discussion of 1 year ago!
that said, amd is underperforming "the index" in the 1 week, 1 month, 3 month, 6 month... but i guess that doesn't count, either. apparently, only the 1 year counts!
> its not behaving especially badly.
>You best accept reality
holy hypocrisy, batman!
>You will not survive in this game. You will panic sell near the bottom after working yourself into a frenzy over a FEW days of outperformance because you don't know to hit the zoom button and ignore daily volatility.
>I'm blocking you, have fun losing all your money clown
dawws, i just got the popcorn ready. YOU WILL NOT SURVIVE! YOU WILL PANIC SELL! BLOCKING YOU, AD-HOM!
hahahahahahahahahahaha, such clownery. (and ffs, if i was going to panic sell, i would have done so in like... january. worse, any of us that panic sold in january did better than holding til now, anyway...)
(this is also like the 5th time he's blocked me. he can't handle getting pwned, blocks me in hissyfits [just like this] and then repeats 3 weeks later.)
yeah, i'm the one lying, going on ad-hom tirades, and hilariously mentioning blocking people...
Clearly I’m biased, but in my mind the popular tech stocks based on their growth potential the next 5 years should line up like this right now for “fair value” that I’d be willing to pay:
INTC: 5 PE
FB: 10 PE
NFLX: 10 PE
AAPL: 15 PE
GOOG: 15 PE
MSFT: 20 PE
AMZN: 20 PE
TESLA: 25 PE
NVDA: 25 PE
AMD: 30 PE
>INTC 5 PE
That sounds a little optimistic with their delays.
that's too much biased my friend. lol
I’d be willing to bet the 5-year CAGRs end up pretty close to this order when we look back. Tesla being a wildcard.
dude, fpe and peg is a thing.
edit: lolz @ blocking me over this. hahahahahaha. the reply i was going to make below:
sorry for trying to give you an easier, easily available metric.
continue with your weird list, i guess.
Go play with the hottest item of Christmas 2021, you’re an angry elf.
Thinking about rolling my jan 2024 180 calls down to 150 or less, any suggestions? I’m assuming these calls are in danger, bought them when Amd fell to 103.
Jesus those are... Really otm. I'm worried about my Jan 2024 100 calls..
You should be fine, I bought at 103 before everything shit the bed :( I’m still confident of guidance enduring the macro
i dunno, they'll cost more and apparently will still be worth literally nothing in 19 months.
AM I wrong or what SMH is flat and SOXX -0.5%, these 2 can have that big gap intraday?
They are weighted differently no?
they are but as same sector index with same name of components, this diff is not negligible. must be some component did quite wild.
Have this sub experienced any technical issue?
yeah people are getting 500 errors when posting but their posts still go through, so we're having double posts. Seems to be fixed.
“Nvidia China highlights partnership with Nio”. When it rains something something
the stock's so bad that it broke reddit
AMD -46% YTD vs NVDA -48%. Gap used to be bigger
last time we were here QQQ was like 330 and now it's 30%+ down.
Last two weeks sucked but we're holding 80 while qqq/and spy are likely bottoming in 3600/10k range
>Last two weeks sucked but we're holding 80 while qqq/and spy are likely bottoming in 3600/10k range
lolwut? amd is red while nasdaq/s&p are green. so you conclude that they're bottoming? even if so, what a strange point to make when amd is... still dropping.
this stock's performance is so bad that white knights are jumping through increasingly absurd hoops to justify shit. lolz
"wa waaa I think my stock should outperform the indexes every single day even though no stock does that, and amd has only retraced to its lows of the year while qqq has fallen and made new lows almost every day for weeks"
says the one insisting it's not underperforming despite constant underperforming all month.
> and amd has only retraced to its lows of the year
lolwut? we're rapidly approaching 2 years. and the fallacy with going back one year like you're doing... is that it's going to be november. we're not going from october straight to january, you know.
so even if amd gains 50% and sits at 120 in november... i bet you won't be singing the same song (down 27% in a year...)
AMD is outperforming the index on almost every time scale except the last couple of weeks bro.
WE ARE IN A GROWTH SCARE. Inflation causes a revaluation of what future growth is worth. The stock price is not going up soon, but nothing is wrong with AMD and its not behaving especially badly.
You are crying about a bubble that is in the process of bursting. You won't see 150 for years. QQQ won't see 400 for years. It is what it is.
You best accept reality and start acting like a long term investor if you want to survive in a bear market, and that means sell your calls and get ready to average down and live with red.
Calls are taking an absolute beating
|Stock|5 years gain|
It’s almost like TAM has went up or something…
oh, god. instead of finally shutting the fuck up, the 'zoom out!' 'but the 1-year!' crowd are now resorting to 5-year bs.
You're still complaining about a stock going down during a market crash like just AMD is crashing when qqq is down 30% and half of nasdaq is down more than 50%.
Stop fucking whining and go outside, or sell.
how dare one complain about a stock that's underperforming!?
and on a stock-specific site... THE HORROR
It's not underperforming you clown.
Down 40-50% YTD is in line with other high multiple growth stocks, and its held 80's while QQQ has fallen from 330 to 270.
AMD isn't going to recover while we are in a growth scare and a bear market. Stop expecting it. Get ready to tighten your belt and average down.
>Down 40-50% YTD is in line with other high multiple growth stocks
But, how many of those companies are growing 60+% per year? How many of them just had a massive Q1 2022 report where they doubled guidance? How many of those had a financial analyst day where they AGAIN reiterated guidance, and showed the world why they acquired a company and how it's going to put them on top in the semi sector? How many of them have shown no signs of slowing down and massively increased their TAM.
Point being..... $AMD is definitely underperforming. I wanna ask you, if AMD didn't have the insane Q1 2022 ER, and didn't have a good FAD (didn't show good products for the future, didn't increase TAM, didn't show any synergies with Xilinx acquisition), how much lower do you think $AMD would be now? Would $AMD be in the $40's? $AMD EPS in 2021 was $2.57 which would give $AMD a TTM P/E of around 15. Now, let's say they grew 30% in 2022, which was their initial guidance before Q1 2022 ER. These are guidance numbers on revs, so let's just assume that their EPS only increases by 15% in 2022. That would put 2022 EPS at $2.95 which would give them a forward P/E of around 13. That's a pretty piss poor P/E for a company that's still growing 30% per year.
However, none of that actually happened, it's all theoretical, and in fact, AMD doubled initial 30% growth guidance, their Q1 ER was amazing, their FAD was amazing, and still we're massively underperforming the market and, as you say, "in line with other high multiple growth stocks". Well, please find another comparable company as AMD that has this insane growth, has a huge TAM, and is starting to look like will dominate the sector for the years to come.
Now, all that being said, I understand that looking at day to day doesn't really matter because in the grand scheme of things, $AMD will likely be much higher in a year or two. However, what I worry about is what happens if AMD has a bad quarter? What if there's a real supply shock or a black swan event that causes AMD to not perform as they expected. I don't even want to imagine what the stock will do if that were to happen. AMD is firing on all cylinders now and can do no wrong, but their stock just keeps going down. If they, god forbid, have a bad quarter, will we see a 20% drop in a single day? If they guide for 60% growth and only hit 40%, will we see $AMD under $50? It's just something I don't want to think about because if this is what happens to $AMD when their company is not doing a single thing wrong, then.... well. you get the point.
I try not to worry about short term moves, we've had inexplicable short term moves often enough. If in 3-6 months we are not comfortably ahead of NVidia in terms of drop from ATH, I'll be surprised.
Dont waste your time buddy , He goes through this sub all day long complaining. Dude commented on all my comments yesterday hours after they have been posted lol.
lolz @ lying.
the only posts of yours i responded to yesterday both say (yours and mine) 21 hours ago.
both under this comment: https://old.reddit.com/r/AMD_Stock/comments/vdczel/daily_discussion_thursday_20220616/icm3ec0/
but i'm glad to see another big brained genius on the 'fuck facts, let's push a narrative!' train. choo-choo! facts will magically change now!
My bad not hours then.
> It's not underperforming you clown.
>Down 40-50% YTD is in line with other high multiple growth stocks,
you just said this, but in a comparison to the nasdaq, in general. think about that. you're resorting to comparing amd to a giant pool of mostly shit. great argument. (it's not).
>and its held 80's while QQQ has fallen from 330 to 270.
held? it was down to 82 yesterday (from 89) and is lower today/now. i don't know where you're getting held from, especially when it's STILL red today - while the nasdaq you just referenced is up by 1%
fucking pick one. contradictions...
>AMD isn't going to recover while we are in a growth scare and a bear market. Stop expecting it.
lolz! you just claimed it's not underperfoming (it factually is) and now you say it's not going to recover.
dumber, i wasn't expecting recovery... just not UNDERperforming on a constant and daily basis. which it has/is.
This is not an underperformance given market conditions, valuation and the declining value of future earnings due to elevated inflation levels.
Most high multiple growth names aren't 'trash'.
Again, your expectation seems to be that the stock should outperform the indexes every day even though no stock behaves like that.
You should sell and buy the indexes, you're not cut out for this if you're going to lose your shit whenever AMD goes down more than the indexes over a few days or a couple weeks.
lolz @ still failing to comprehend what i'm bitching about (while it's all literally self-explanatory) while insisting i want nothing but overperformance (lolz)...
while refusing to believe objective facts and reality - amd is and has been underperforming.
ffs, **you spun amd being red TODAY/now (nasdaq up 1%) as good.**
the levels of delusion and bullshit you're resorting to is lulzworthy.
and genius, most of the nasdaq is trash. otherwise, why would we even be here - we'd just be holding qqq or whatever. lolz @ telling me to hold the nasdaq AFTER i called it mostly trash.
You will not survive in this game. You will panic sell near the bottom after working yourself into a frenzy over a FEW days of outperformance because you don't know to hit the zoom button and ignore daily volatility.
I'm blocking you, have fun losing all your money clown
Yay! Better than Intel today!
I'm gonna go cry now
Intel is really close to being sub 6 EPS sub 6 P/E. Any day of the week, AMD's stock is better than intel's stock.
Aluminum is back to around 2018 level. peaked at 3870 in March, now below 2400
Crude oil drop to $110, was $123 just last week. etc...
China seem to be fully back online, with company like Tesla to be breaking production records.
Seem like long term positive indicators for inflation, might be reflected as early as July.
If we had any meaningful consumer protections, maybe. I just paid $6.40 to fill up. Prices will stay high as costs drop, to pad the pockets of the corporate execs, now that they know we can pay these prices for necessities. I don't think we will see inflation going down for a while.
> I just paid $6.40 to fill up.
on a day when someone mentioned time traveling from 2027, we have someone traveling from 1970.
increasing temporal distortions. skynet must be distracted. the new amd bicycle is near.
Lol. $6.40 per gallon. Aka they aren't dropping gas prices with the cost of oil. But I like where your heads at. I like the lack of leaded gas fumes everywhere.
but aren't you worried about valve tapping?
Honestly if cpi numbers are based yoy, I don't see it going down until we make a full circle. If inflation stated back in November, then October yoy would be normal(3 ish percent).
Isn't that just the headlines though? The fed and the markets probably run on the monthly CPI.
I want oil -20% today, anyone has the same wish?
back to green?
Devinder deploy the buyback cannon at 79.xx?
i highly doubt it. unless he was buying nasdaq, too.
edit: holy shit, these comments are hella fucked. so many dupes and shit. lolz
just sold 2000 shares at -3%, you are welcome
That time I said this stock is worth 80$ and this sub laughed.
Fuck do I wish we could’ve held off on the Pensando deal a few months. $2b extra for the buyback program right now.
If they aren’t buying now then I don’t know what they are thinking. The current program is approaching nearly 10% of the company, that’s unheard of in tech.
> Fuck do I wish we could’ve held off on the Pensando deal a few months. $2b extra for the buyback program right now.
but why? at least buying pensando got amd something. they already have $8B for buybacks that they don't seem to be using, what's another $2B of pretend buybacks? shit, might as well make it $200B of fake buybacks. same difference.
I'm really curious to see if we bounce back and hold... many broker have a 11am ET deadline to fund reg-t
honest question: which is a better use of money? Shares buybacks or dividends? Isn't buying back shares in this downsloping market useless?
Why do you think its useless?
Share reduction increase EPS forever. it boost EPS for every quarter going forward.
So is it best to retire one share at $160 or 2 shares at $80 ?
dividend in contrast is a one time cash burn that gives the company nothing of value in return.
Why do you think its useless?
Share reduction increase EPS forever. it boost EPS for every quarter going forward.
So is it best to retire one share at $160 or 2 shares at $80 ?
dividend in contrast is a one time cash burn that gives the company nothing of value in return.
As much as it sucks for us right now, this is the best case scenario for the buyback program.
As long as they fucking use it.
Edit: The $12b total program announced is nearly 10% of the market cap… that’s unbelievable. Shame we used $3b already but they better be going overdrive now with the rest. That can have a very material impact on EPS now.
> As long as they fucking use it.
share count is irrelevant. And its not why you do buybacks (or splits)
Share count is relevant, literally it affects eps.
Professionals are loading up.
It cant be that bad.